Patrick Zweifel Profile picture
Dec 23 3 tweets 2 min read
1/3
√ Our global trade index contracted further, the most since July 2009 (-11.2% y/y)

√ For the first time since June, this was reflected in the volume of world exports which slowed to 1.7% y/y
2/3
√ In nominal terms, #EmergingMarkets exports had already peaked in June and preliminary data for November suggests a drop of 18% from that peak and 9% y/y
3/3
√ Obviously, a large part of this correction is due to a drop in export prices (8% for all EM), in particular the price of raw materials, which has caused the export prices of commodity exporting countries to drop by more than 14%

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More from @PkZweifel

Dec 15
1/7
#China activity indicators for Nov came in much weaker than expected on Covid-linked restrictions and protests

. Too early for easing property measures to have an impact: floor space started remained at 13-year lows and residential demand is back to new cyclical lows

thread
2/7
. Overall construction activity was unchanged at cyclical lows and 24% below pre-pandemic trend while bottoming out on a y/y basis (-9.3% y/y vs -14.2% in Aug)
3/7
#China home prices fell for an 8th consecutive month, down 2.3% y/y, with 23 of cities having rising prices (up from 15% in Oct)
Read 7 tweets
Dec 13
1/5
#US inflation was lower than expected thanks to a reversal in energy prices: down 1.6% over the month and declining to 13% y/y from 17.6% with much further to go
(thread)
2/5
#US core inflation came in also lower than expected thanks to a marked fall in the price of core goods (-0.5% m/m) while the rise in the price of core services remained unchanged at 6.8% y/y
3/5
√ Core services inflation remains essentially a story about rents (40% of core CPI), up 7.3% y/y and on a continuous rise from 2% in March 2021 while inflation on other core items is down to 5.2% from a peak at 8.6% in Feb this year
Read 5 tweets
Nov 15
1/6
#China main activity indicators for Oct were generally weaker than expected, declining on a m/m basis
. Real estate sector disappointed again as floor space started remained at 13-year lows while residential demand dropped back to cyclical lows

(thread) Image
2/6
. Overall construction activity was unchanged at cyclical lows and 23% below pre-pandemic trend while bottoming out on a y/y basis (-9.7% y/y vs -14.1% in Aug) Image
3/6
√ Industrial production was one of the only indicators this month to avoid a contraction and continued to move around trend Image
Read 6 tweets
Sep 8
1/n
The two different surveys of US services sent completely different messages 👇

√ S&P collapsed to 43.7
√ ISM rebounded to 56.9

Correlation between the two series has always been low, 10% in the pre-pandemic period, due to several differences between the two surveys Image
2/n
√ different sectoral composition: ISM is non-manufacturing and thus includes sectors not covered by S&P: Table 👇 (reproduced from S&P here: bit.ly/3cZusKg)

√ Among other main differences: size of the firms surveyed, questionnaires and sectoral weighting Image
3/n
Another difference is how they correlate with the consumption of services:

While they are both high since 2009 (ISM 57%; S&P 59%) they have nothing to do with each other when the pandemic is excluded: it rises to 69%👇 for the ISM but no longer exists for S&P (0%!)👇 Image
Read 4 tweets
Aug 15
1/n
#China main activity indicators for July were generally lower than expected and in contraction on a m/m basis: (thread)
. Real estate sector was once again a big disappointment as floor space started plunged to 13-year lows while residential demand fell back to cyclical lows Image
2/n
. Overall construction activity is down 13.6% y/y driving home prices lower (-1.7% y/y) Image
3/n
√ Industrial production was slightly down (-0.2% m/m) back to trend Image
Read 7 tweets

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