(((Tendar))) Profile picture
Dec 23 4 tweets 3 min read
A Russian source has issued this video showing advancing Ukrainian troops getting targeted by artillery (looks like they missed).

What’s more interesting, however, is the position. It is near Ploshchanka and I might have already geolocated it. #Ukraine #Luhansk #Ploshchanka
It is hard to geolocate it, but this is my best take (85% sure), but there are many coinciding lines where I'm fairly certain to have a match.
Bringing us to where those troops are now exactly as well as the overflying Russian drone. The coordinates of the troops are:

49°12'8.42"N, 38° 5'6.76"E

The drone is fairly far and not above Ploshchanka:

49°12'57.01"N, 38° 5'16.21"E
We have also information from the Ukrainian General Staff that Russians were conducting strikes near Ploshchanka.

When I piece that information together I'm tending that Russians have at least abandoned Ploshchanka. Therefore I have adjusted my maps according the previous tweet.

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More from @Tendar

Dec 18
If you've noticed that Russians are making virtually no progress around Bakhmut, even losing ground in the south, then you are right. They wasted their resources by frontally attacking the city, most notably at Opytne and East. Even Russian propagandists are getting dismayed. 1/7
Their local gain at Yakovlivka, which should have been their main thrust in order to be successful, comes way too late to make a difference. Ukrainian troops still control the areas north of this town and reinforcements from Kherson are positioning. 2/7
Moreover, they already falter at the southern part of this operation and even fall back, which emphasized once more how obsessed Russians are with Bakhmut itself. They want it so badly that it will be their undoing, as I predicted it. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Dec 12
First footage of the hit bridge in Russian-occupied Melitopol. #Ukraine #Melitopol #Zaporizhzhia
I'm pretty sure that this the bridge leading over the Molochna channel.

Coordinates:

46°50'31.84"N, 35°24'27.09"E
Sorry for sound problems in the first video. Here (hopefully) with sound. #Melitopol #Ukraine #Zaporizhzhia
Read 4 tweets
Dec 9
Instead of trying to encircle Bakhmut and slowly taking it, the Russian High command seems to have decided to launch a frontal attack on the city itself, proving my suspicion that Putin wants the city as fast as possible even when this means highest rate of own casualties. 1/8
It is the Russian version of shock and awe where everything is thrown into the meat grinder in order to overwhelm the enemy because there is no better option. This tactic is as reckless as it is desperate. You chose this only when you have a very limited time window. 2/8
I believe that the haste comes from two reasons.

1.) The Russian reserves are limited. You cannot sustain such a high intensity operation for a long time.

2.) Winter hasn't fully arrived yet. The Russian army is not ready for it. A snow storm would scythe them entirely. 3/5
Read 8 tweets
Dec 8
There are some western leaders such as Macron who make no sense when talking about “security guarantees for Russia”. Putin has made clear in numerous instances that he does not recognize Ukraine as a state. So, it has zero to do with security.
Even when we wouldn’t know that it is non sense because any security architecture is based on a status quo whatever that means and which is based on the current state of events. Russia under Putin is not interested in that but in the compete opposite.
We are dealing with a deeply revanchist Russia under Putin which wants to destroy the status quo, including any security architecture in order to implement its imperial structure from the 19th and 20th Century. Any offer for peace or ceasefire without a Russian withdrawal…
Read 4 tweets
Dec 8
Russia is aching for a ceasefire but the its propaganda logic dictates that this option can only be taken when Russia achieved a small or even Pyrrhic victory without the impression of being beaten over and over again as it is the case right now, especially after Kherson.
Bakhmut is supposed to be a future propaganda facade with some tactical background but no strategic value. In the contrary, even when we project that Russians might achieve that objective it would be extremely hard to hold it with no additional reserves.
Neither Russia’s industry nor the botched mobilization are in a shape for sustaining that, at least not for the moment. But there is the thinking in Russia that this might be changed in future when there is tactical pause (ceasefire). Imho I find that conclusion questionable.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 2
This is exactly what I was suspecting to happen. Putin and his followers know that their defeat cannot be averted so they try to project, claiming that what is going to happen to them is going to happen to every single Russian. 1/5
That is of course non sense except for one thing.

Many are wondering why Russians don’t oppose their government, inside or outside Russia. There are a plethora of different reasons in the whole Russian population. Some fear how they are perceived by family and friends. 2/5
Some hope that this thing will soon blow over. Some are genuinely hoping that Russia will win. Many think that they don’t make a difference. Others are just too lazy. Etc. I can go on forever.

Bottom line, you will not find the *one* thing, except for this. 3/5
Read 5 tweets

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