2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣2️⃣ Good, bad, or ugly, one thing's for sure: this year turned nothing like #Russia was hoping it would be. With ~26 average confirmed daily losses, it seems to have become one of the greatest material dumps in recent history. Or has it? Let's find out 🧵 
But first: while average figures are quite reliable, daily counts not so much, since loss dates are almost never known accurately. Good example is Mar 30, seemingly the worst day with 166 recorded losses: ukr.warspotting.net/search/?bellig…
Most of them didn't happen on that day, though, only discovered as #RuAF was 'regrouping' away from north #Ukraine. This applies to many more entries on our list with few exceptions. One of them: infamous river crossing attempt near Bilohorivka in mid May.
In a matter of few days #Russia lost 80+ vehicles, a couple BTGs worth material there: ukr.warspotting.net/search/?bellig… And then there was Kharkiv...
Days like this eventually contributed to 8000+ confirmed losses, 1400+ of them tanks, as of Dec 31. How terrible is this? Finding out is not as easy as it might seem.
Shall we compare it to Chechen war where #Russia reportedly lost 70-ish tanks over 3y total? Or Afghan war with Soviet Union loosing 150-ish tanks and 1300-ish IFVs over 10y? Not even close.
Or shall we compare it to 200-300-ish (estimates vary) tanks lost by US over 10y in Vietnam? And what if we told you US lost 10000+ ‼️ aircraft and helicopters combined at the same time? That's where things start getting complicated. Apparently there were different kinds of wars.
Finding the one that makes the most sense in terms of the scale, capacity and development involves a dictator invading neighbouring country under the plot of securing itself, in fact seeking to annex its territory as he believes the time seems right.
Sounds familiar? Sure it does as we're talking about 1980-88 Iran–Iraq war. Iran, which was in rather defensive position (like #Ukraine), suffered bigger losses (unlike #Ukraine): up to 950 tanks over first 4y by some reports (precise numbers unknown): csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/le…
That's half the amount over 4x the time as #Russia did, or 1/8 the intensity. Interestingly, casualties were very much comparable, but they never seem to matter in certain parts of the world.
Now, Iraq wasn't #Russia, and Iran wasn't #Ukraine (how tables have turned, though!), and as we learned, no two wars in history look alike. If there's any lesson at all we can learn from 1980s (or most of the history for that matter) it's this...
War never goes as planned and never ends as wanted. But it very often goes the opposite way the intruder was hoping.
Plus, there's 💝 bonus lesson 💝 for dictators Iraq can offer: chances of being hanged by your own men are increasingly high as you run into wars.
That being said, happy new year to nearly everyone! Stay sane and safe.
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