It is said that Russian President Vladimir Putin can only be influenced, to a certain degree, by a very narrow group of people, and individual "siloviki" (members of Russian power structures) are often mentioned among those belonging to that tight circle of confidants. 1/3
In this talk, Andreas Umland @UmlandAndreas presents research (conducted in cooperation with Martin Kragh @MartinKragh1) of geopolitical views and strategic thoughts of two prominent "siloviki" -> 2/3
Russia's Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai #Patrushev and Foreign Intelligence Service Head Sergei #Naryshkin. Watch the presentation here: 3/3
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Ever since the European Parliament adopted the controversial yet potentially game-changing resolution on recognising Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism (tinyurl.com/37kvj857), everybody has been - expectedly - discussing the resolution's primary thesis only. 1/7
However, the resolution featured yet another thesis, which had no direct relationship to the main point of the document but which may have a groundbreaking effect on our perception of Russia's war against Europe today. 2/7
The penultimate paragraph of the resolution emphasises that Russia's current aggression against Ukraine "highlights the need for a thorough historical and legal evaluation of and a transparent public debate about the crimes of the Soviet regime..." 3/7
Ukraine needs to do something painful yet necessary: a THREAD 👇🏻
Russia’s genocidal war against Ukraine is more than a conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It’s even more than Russia’s war on Europe. Essentially, what we have today is the continuation of the Second World War.
Rather than dismissing or ridiculing Russia’s claims of waging an anti-fascist struggle, we must take them seriously - but importantly - put them in the context of ->
I was happy to take part in the panel discussion "A War of Values: Can Europe find its place in a new world?" organised by Debates on Europe @DebatesOnEurope in Dresden, here's the video:
In particular, I argued that while Western Europe condemns #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine, it feels uneasy about Ukraine's heroic resistance because of the shift of moral authority from Western Europe to Central and Eastern Europe - three months of "We told you so". 2/4
Already now, we witness the emergence of a new geopolitical reality in which Central and Eastern Europe, and especially the Three Seas bloc, will play a role politically more significant than Western Europe. 3/4
Russian government official Dmitry Rogozin: “What has emerged in place of Ukraine is an existential threat to the Russian people, Russian history, the Russian language and Russian civilisation”. 1/9
According to the speaker of the Russian “parliament” Vyacheslav Volodin, Russia is Putin, so if you replace “Russian” with “Putin’s” in Rogozin’s quote, you’ll realise that Rogozin is actually right. 2/9
In a follow-up tweet, Rogozin expectedly calls for the genocide of Ukrainians, saying that the Russians need to accomplish what their grandfathers failed to do - he probably meant the Holodomor, Stalin’s attempt to destroy the Ukrainians through the artificial famine. 3/9
The Ukrainian Security Service published an analytical report of the Russian FSB related to #Russia's genocidal invasion of #Ukraine: ssu.gov.ua/novyny/sbu-otr… Here I will highlight some FSB's guidelines on what influence operations Russia should carry out in Europe, thread -> 1/6
Russian influence operations in Europe recommended by the FSB:
- Dropping a massive package of information on "facts" and "forecasts" on the decline of the quality of life in the EU linked to the EU governments' policies supporting "nationalist groups" in Ukraine; 2/6
- provoking internal social pressure on governments and political elites of Western countries;
- forming a negative opinion among residents of European countries towards their governments' policies on Russia; 3/6
Hungary gets 65% of its oil supplies from Russia via the Druzhba Pipeline that goes through Ukraine. When a Ukrainian official mentioned that the transfer of Russian oil may be used as leverage against anti-Ukrainian policies of Orbán’s regime -> 1/8
-> Hungary’s Foreign Ministry responded quite nervously saying that Hungary helps hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees. 2/8
Look, let’s be straightforwardly realistic here. First of all, helping Ukrainian refugees is NOT helping Ukraine - in the best case scenario it’s helping individual people. 3/8