$BIOR fails to do HOD clearout
$BWEN completes HOD clearout

Same type1 setup, different delivery. Recognizing the pattern is only first small step, edge extraction goes far beyond just pattern recognition and it's why it's a multi-year process often:
#smallcaps #trading

1.
In smallcaps more than other markets you often have smaller ranges present which makes it more difficult on edge because the max RR is more capped. Details on how you execute setups start to matter a lot more because of that. This is absolutely key to understand.

2.
Figuring out through details which setup is bit more likely to fail vs the other matters because of low ranges. 5-10% add on failure recognition might matter over long run. It doesn't matter on high time frame setups where liquidity and range is great, but intraday...yes.

3.
For every pattern or setup you need to specialize figuring out as quickly as possible when failure is on. Majority of education focuses on recognition only which is false. Quick failure recognition is more important. Why? Because edge is thin anyways on most patterns.

4.
"Quick failure recognition" is measured in price distance relative to structure of pattern. If you use highs and lows as failure recognition that can be too far already. Mid points are where the invalidations already happen if you study over large sample base.

5.
Study your patterns over large sample base and focus on failing patterns only to see if you can quickly spot their earliest sign of failure. It won't be super obvious but many failing setups do share something about orderflow that prones them to fail. Find what that is.

6.

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More from @TradetheMatrix1

Jan 12
Shorting stuffed moves requires anticipation. For example ydays short on $BWEN 10:55, you need to focus on painted ranges (rigged) and be ready on what you need to see on tape to extract edge out of play like that (high tape velocity surge).
#smallcaps
1.
This brings us to another point, the edge in tape:
-its not the size
-its velocity changes
Strong changes in velocity for few minutes reveal large participant agenda. Size of one big order does not reveal consistency or aggression persistence. It can easily be a spoof.

2.
Single order can always be a spoof, velocity change cannot be spoofed. Hard data priority. Another reason why you should always pay more attention to speed changes and absorbing rather than what sits on bid or ask.

3.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 10
We live in era where everything is starting to get streamed. Most of the rigging is still done typically in secrecy. Over past 5 years it has been great learning experiment watching live stream process of actual rigging process performed from S. Bannon on macro side.

Why:
1.
To this point i have not seen any other known-by-name "heavy weight and still legal" who comes close to carrying the process so obviously and in the open. Its much quicker to learn about rigged stuff when its done from individual rather than just process (no-name) basis.

2.
Using Chief strategists of administrations for major powers to puppet master the presidents or whole cabinets is nothing new, has been done historically many times. But it is uncommon to see it done for public eye, if you know where to look. Podcasts, speeches, streams, etc.

3.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 17, 2022
Most #smallcaps do not reverse split after being recent multiday runners. Typical R/S goes like BIMI, nothing going on month prior to the split. $COSM had a lot of swing carry positions at the tail end of multiday runner adjusted into split. Exploration opp for MMs.

1.
Whether there really was failure to adjust the split correctly before market open or it was done intentionally it doesnt matter. Due to selling restrictions by many, the supply was limited. It created purer fresh squeeze agenda, and less overhead participation.

2.
Restrictions on selling by many brokers added to the fact that float was more "pure" and untouched. Overhead reduced. Whoever decided to corner the float had less overhead selling presence, easier to market-make and drive out fresh shorts on SSR also.

3.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 17, 2022
End of the week recap for cycle flows in #smallcaps. Regardless of $COSM action the overall message is still quite clear, weakness incorporated.

Thread:

1.
Big picture:
Strong cycle in August followed by weak cycles more or less into December followed by strong cycle that exhausted very quickly. One prior short lived strong cycle in Sept also ended the same.

Longer lasting weak cycles combined with short lived strong cycles.

2.
For example ADFs showed up very early into this strong cycle, just three days into it heavy ADF mode.
Same as in last one. All tickers that tried to take the lead position (AMAM etc) had no d2 or d3 followthroughs. Early exhaustion.

3.
Read 9 tweets
Dec 10, 2022
Prolonged contraction of ranges and volatility brings strong expansion after. But since contraction can last for very long (2 months) the key is identifying those little clues that suggest expansion this time really might happen.

Weak-strong ignition.
#smallcaps

Thread:
1.
Day2 liquidity increase is something I track closely. SMMT had two days ago significant increase in d2 liquidity and squeeze unlike majority of past tickers for entire month. Disconnect of theme. Significant factor.
Warning 1.

2.
Type4 patterns increased. They went from non-existent for entire 3 weeks to all sudden being present on $SMMT two days ago. Type4s never show up randomly. They are mostly present in early stages of strong cycle, they are liquidity hunting patterns for MMs.
Warning 2.

3.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 9, 2022
$AMAM was early avoidable short, but very impractical to know it ahead unless you have seen many strong cycles in small caps (4 years plus), because of key aspect: This pattern is rare.

thread:
1.
In early stage of every strong cycle there is one 0.5 USD ticker that gaps up, and then goes into halt squeeze mode. ( $APDN in August). The structure of this tickers is always the same (price/volatility/volumes). Its a pattern. But recognizing it can be difficult:

2.
It is strong cycle specific pattern. Short sellers get caught, because there is large gap between each new strong cycle (2 plus months). You forget how things went step by step last time.

There is the clue above. You have to reverse engineer whole flow d1-d14:

3.
Read 9 tweets

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