Every setup/patterns performance is quite different in weak or strong cycle. Different enough that it impacts edge to high degree.
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1. For example parabolic squeezes they just don't happen in weak cycles. In strong cycles you will have few of them and one of those will be picture perfect one. Significant "show up" rate difference for pattern between the cycles.

2.

Tracking cycles is the most helpful method in any market including #smallcaps. No indicator or single point reason will ever provide as much clues as cycles recognition can. Here are some tips on daily routines for tracking:

#trading
1. Start tracking tickers performances.
-EOD close green or red
-intraday range % max

Note down are closes and ranges expanding/improving or decreasing for tickers on the day.

2.

Behavior of #smallcaps is significantly different between strong and weak cycles. One has to track the cycles accurately because expectations can shift so much that any mistake made in strong cycle can get multiplied many times if risk is not respected which is common.

1. For example there are no strong AH runners in most of times except in strong cycles where big % AH runs are common. You only have to make one mistake of being sloppy on swing shorts without being aware of how cycles impact you and it can be enough to give back plenty gains.

2.

In small European country you are being told that "Americans" are nothing special. You are being told there is no answer to why the US supremacy exits.
But over time one collects some answers. As objective person who never kisses anyones behind:

1. Specialization. Tip of the spear. Looking at the (US) nation or individuals on average there isnt that significant difference (if at all), but there is far higher amount of knowledgeable and innovation/specialization focused individuals in US than what you notice localy.

2.

Here is why you should learn about functionality of risk-ON/risk-OFF in #markets no matter what asset class you decide to #trade:

1. It gives you foundations to good expectations. There is one pool of global capital that moves in and out of the risk offense or risk defense mode. You should know in what mode market is today to begin with and how it impacts your selected ticker of the day in focus.

2.

The game of extracting cents and why behavioral analysis matters:

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1. Because the ranges are often limited the RR is tied and limited too. The weaker the cent range the less RR by default. If you try to place two, three, four+ trades on single ticker that impacts you. If you take only single big swing trade it doesn't.

2.

Good question from fellow trader:
"As you gain more experience how are you avoiding overcomplicating things?"

Short answer: constant displacement.

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1. My aim over years has been to always seek for more efficient behavioral analysis tools and approaches that improve upon prior ones used. This means constant research on what to improve and optimize. Adding some improvement to watchlisting/planning/expectation weekly.

2.

Some say recession won't come because too many see it ahead which is not normal.

Being contrarian is a skill, it requires careful calibration, let's break down some reasons why recession will likely come and dismissing it is not "black sheep" thinking at all:

1. Recessions aren't signaled ahead, but depressions can be. This is what many are missing, we won't go into recession but more likely global depression crisis. Those come slowly and creep upon unlike recessions which strike fast. Recessions are more common unlike depressions.

2.

Shorting stuffed moves requires anticipation. For example ydays short on $BWEN 10:55, you need to focus on painted ranges (rigged) and be ready on what you need to see on tape to extract edge out of play like that (high tape velocity surge).
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1. This brings us to another point, the edge in tape:
-its not the size
-its velocity changes
Strong changes in velocity for few minutes reveal large participant agenda. Size of one big order does not reveal consistency or aggression persistence. It can easily be a spoof.

2.

$BIOR fails to do HOD clearout
$BWEN completes HOD clearout

Same type1 setup, different delivery. Recognizing the pattern is only first small step, edge extraction goes far beyond just pattern recognition and it's why it's a multi-year process often:
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1. In smallcaps more than other markets you often have smaller ranges present which makes it more difficult on edge because the max RR is more capped. Details on how you execute setups start to matter a lot more because of that. This is absolutely key to understand.

2.

We live in era where everything is starting to get streamed. Most of the rigging is still done typically in secrecy. Over past 5 years it has been great learning experiment watching live stream process of actual rigging process performed from S. Bannon on macro side.

Why:
1. To this point i have not seen any other known-by-name "heavy weight and still legal" who comes close to carrying the process so obviously and in the open. Its much quicker to learn about rigged stuff when its done from individual rather than just process (no-name) basis.

2.

Most #smallcaps do not reverse split after being recent multiday runners. Typical R/S goes like BIMI, nothing going on month prior to the split. $COSM had a lot of swing carry positions at the tail end of multiday runner adjusted into split. Exploration opp for MMs.

1. Whether there really was failure to adjust the split correctly before market open or it was done intentionally it doesnt matter. Due to selling restrictions by many, the supply was limited. It created purer fresh squeeze agenda, and less overhead participation.

2.

End of the week recap for cycle flows in #smallcaps. Regardless of $COSM action the overall message is still quite clear, weakness incorporated.

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1. Big picture:
Strong cycle in August followed by weak cycles more or less into December followed by strong cycle that exhausted very quickly. One prior short lived strong cycle in Sept also ended the same.

Longer lasting weak cycles combined with short lived strong cycles.

2.

If you are short every single day, every ticker and sized you will need to develop good read on cycle flows to avoid heavy losses when strong cycle swipes in. Watching many traders over years this is pattern that happens due to over-exposure:

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1. If you find reason to be short on everything, it means you will also be then short things that will squeeze heavy. Lack of selectivity and over-engagement math dictates this will happen. This is where volatility comes into play and does the damage.

2.

Prolonged contraction of ranges and volatility brings strong expansion after. But since contraction can last for very long (2 months) the key is identifying those little clues that suggest expansion this time really might happen.

Weak-strong ignition.
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1. Day2 liquidity increase is something I track closely. SMMT had two days ago significant increase in d2 liquidity and squeeze unlike majority of past tickers for entire month. Disconnect of theme. Significant factor.
Warning 1.

2.

$AMAM was early avoidable short, but very impractical to know it ahead unless you have seen many strong cycles in small caps (4 years plus), because of key aspect: This pattern is rare.

thread:
1. In early stage of every strong cycle there is one 0.5 USD ticker that gaps up, and then goes into halt squeeze mode. ( $APDN in August). The structure of this tickers is always the same (price/volatility/volumes). Its a pattern. But recognizing it can be difficult:

2.

Doing manual test to confirm misconceptions is important to refine your knowledge of markets. Many ask: Are whole round numbers important in #smallcaps #trading?

Run simple exercise to see significance vs noise:

1. Collect 200 smallcap charts, find how many run on fresh frontside into whole round number and what happens to price there. For example first push from 4.2 to 5.00.
Run it for multiple % levels not just one: 2, 4, 5 etc. First touch-test only.

2.

Some have lately stepped up educating about manipulation in #smallcaps. To highlight there is significant difference in only doing it in hindsight vs doing it with actionable insight realtime. Second one requires significant more exp and trickery mindset.

1. Key being if one can't do it realtime with forward warnings often the usecase is limited. Anyone can actually "educate" about rigged things in all games out there, because the complexity only is noticeable in realtime not hindsight. Why?

2.

-Veterans of #smallcaps do not talk about potential next year/s liquidity #trading issues because majority of them haven't gone trough liquidity shrinking+recession cycle with exception of 10% of them. Keep this in mind, surprise factor even for those in game for while.

1. Something I learned from other markets is that many veterans walk into major cycle changes blind just as any other guys, because they still havent been in game for long enough to see this happen before. If you see lack of warnings...

2.

Let me give you outline why I trade fulltime daily #smallcaps and why "training" aspect is huge component. Why dedicating 5h or more and obsessively trying to be close to market changes on daily basis.

1. When times get difficult and market changes people give up. They leave whatever the market niche where flows changed and go to some other market seeking for next better opportunity. This is problematic as you never develop sustainable edge in market. Always on the fence.

2.

Very high % aim constantly on investments is biggest trap one can set him/herself for in markets. We have seen frenzy in #crypto and #smallcaps over past 1.5 year, which caused many of bagheld positions.

The higher your % aim is, the bigger the need to be close to market.

1. Aiming small % in any speculative market is not as difficult, as % are ramped 10 fold, the difficulty increases massively and your chances of failure too.

Reason: Need for timing increases as well. To get high % movers the timing on cycle start/finish has to be excellent.

2.