Well observed “Every civil servant knows that mistakes can slow down one's career, but a project well done does not necessarily guarantee further advancement. So it's important to eliminate risks as much as possible. The time factor plays no role in this equation.” #Bundeswehr
“Mais [chief of army] compares the military to a fire department, which immediately responds when the alarm is raised. The Bundeswehr cannot do that. The radio, the ladder & the hose for the fire truck would first have to be fetched from various barracks throughout the country.”
Brutal.
“Under Lambrecht, the MoD and the Bundeswehr leadership have fallen into a deep lethargy. Like with blood poisoning, the first organs are now beginning to die, says one officer. Another attests to his boss's "palliative conduct of office."“
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On 27 February, Olaf Scholz held his famous #Zeitenwende speech. More than ten months have passed since then. What’s the verdict? Have times turned in German defence and security policy? My assessment of where we are at the moment - the good, the bad, and the ugly.
(thread)
The good: 1) German support for Ukraine.
Yes, despite all criticism, German support for Ukraine, financially but also militarily has been substantial and important.
2) Energy diversification. Germany, famously dependent on Russia for its gas supply, went from buying over half of its gas from Russia in 2021 to not buying any Russian gas since September 2022.
Oha.
Bild reports exclusively that German defence minister Christine Lambrecht is planning to resign.
If that’s true, I’d say today’s Spiegel story was the straw that broke the camel’s back. bild.de/politik/inland…
Btw, I have an article coming out tomorrow at 9am which mentions her as defence minister, so I hope she’s not resigning tonight.
This is the Spiegel story I’m referring to. #Lambrecht
I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding in the German debate about offence and defence (Angriff und Verteidigung), which explains some strange takes.
Short 🧵
Early on we had discussions about offensive and defensive weapons, and now, with the #Leopard2 combat tank discussion we hear again how Ukrainian defence is fine, but offence we (Germany/the west) cannot support.
But I think people are getting the levels wrong here. Ukraine was attacked. EVERYTHING Ukraine does atm is DEFENSIVE. Ukraine is defending its sovereignty, territory, and people.
This is so unbearably tone-deaf. “There is war in Europe” - so I am standing in the middle of new year’s fireworks going off. Boom.
“There is war in Europe … for me this meant meeting some great people”.
Have they lost their mind in Berlin?
Most of the time when there are political communication disasters, one can see the intention (which went wrong). But this, from the setting, to the text and message, to the sound, is a catastrophe. With no good will can I come up with what they were trying to achieve. #Lambrecht
I’ve translated the relevant bits (as close to the original as I could, hence some clunky phrasing).
I’m sorry, this is disastrous.
I cannot believe that 9months into this war I have to listen to a German journalist monologuing how “we need to negotiate,weapons deliveries are important but we need to give diplomacy a chance” and he doesn’t get ONE QUESTION as to who he thinks should negotiate & about what?!🤯
Of - fucking - course diplomacy is important and of - fucking - course it would be better to talk rather than fight but who does he think could make this happen? Unbelievable that these banal and trite statements don’t get pushback.
I’m not even gonna link to the interview but it’s a big name journalist in a good public broadcaster show and we REALLY need to do better.
He starts by noting that “an epochal tectonic shift” - a Zeitenwende - has happened. “Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has put an end to an era.”
“New powers have emerged or reemerged, including an economically strong and politically assertive China. In this new multipolar world, different countries and models of government are competing for power and influence.”