Arthur Hayes Profile picture
Jan 13 6 tweets 1 min read
.#SBF_FTX

1/

Before I finish, let’s do some math.

Assumptions:
FTX deposit base = $15bn
Alameda position notional = $1.3bn
Processed withdrawals pre bankruptcy = $5bn
2/

First let’s assume that alameda’s position goes to zero for a loss to FTX of $1.3bn.

Net of customer deposits that’s $13.7bn
3/

Next we subtract the amount of processed withdrawals and come to $8.7bn.
4/

FTX stopped processing withdrawals after the $5bn because they ran out of funds. So how does Alameda going completely bust on FTX lead to a cessation of withdrawals? What happened to the other $8.7bn?
5/

Instead of telling us about the positions of the hedge fund you claim to not have managed, please explain how your exchange went bust when alameda only could have caused a $1.3bn loss to the exchange?
6/

Your ex has a theory of what happened to that $8.7bn, but I guess you have a different story? Why don’t you tell us since you are being so forthcoming with information. I look forward to your next post.

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More from @CryptoHayes

Jan 13
.#SBF_FTX

1/

The exchange should never lose money if a customer gets liquidated. There is no excuse giving you hedge fund alameda an account with liquidation turned off.
2/

All this talk about what Alameda did is misdirection. It doesn’t matter how they hedged or didn’t hedge, or what dogshit was in their portfolio.
3/

If you want to do some explaining tell us why you thought it was a good idea to give your hedge fund an account with the liquidation feature turned off?
Read 5 tweets
Nov 9, 2022
1/
What happens now that Baron CZ passed on FTX bailout and SBF is bankrupt. The next question is who could save FTX?
2/
If CZ, the richest person in #crypto, can't do the deal. No one can do the deal.
3/
FTX customer deposits will only see recovery in a bankruptcy court, and that will take many years to sort out. Mt Gox creditors still haven't received funds and it's been almost a decade.
Read 12 tweets
Nov 4, 2022
1/
There is a #China health presser tomorrow, if this tweet is true, and the rumours onshore that Xi may ditch COVID zero in a matter of weeks it might explain a few things.
2/
When I look across the assets I track I see strange things.

$CNY up 2%, massive!

$GOLD $SILVER $OIL $BTU all ripping while SPX and Nasdaq are unch.

2-yr yields barely off their recent highs post FOMC.

Jobs report was decent so JayPow will stay the course. Image
3/
And #crypto ripping too.
$ETH sliced through $1,600.

Let's Go China! Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 25, 2022
1/
Guess who is pumping $BTC and $ETH
2/
The US Treasury is thinking about supplying the market with more short term T-bills to alleviate a shortage.
3/
Money Market Funds like short term T-bills, but there ain't enough so they park their money in the Fed's reverse repo facility. It earns a similar yield. Credit risk is also a factor, but let's keep this simple for twitter.
Read 8 tweets
Oct 6, 2022
1/
Another episode in gimme 'dem dollaz!!!

All the central banks be dialin' for dollars at the NY Fed.
2/
The NY Fed creates and lends dollars to "friendly" central banks, which is called Central Bank Liquidity Swap Operations.

nyfed.org/3ebqn6l
3/
They did a "test" trade with the ECB and SNB totaling $3.3billi that settled Oct 6th. Gotta make sure the pipes work, don't want to get sabotaged like Nordstream I and II.
Read 6 tweets
Oct 3, 2022
1/
Curious thangs going on with $ liq
2/
Big jump in $ liq driven by a reduction in reverse repo balances.
3/
Here is the big drop in RRP balances today, ~$180bn. No idea why, but the Fed did have a meeting today, no indication on what they discussed.
Read 6 tweets

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