Ulrike Franke Profile picture
Jan 14 13 tweets 3 min read
On 27 February, Olaf Scholz held his famous #Zeitenwende speech. More than ten months have passed since then. What’s the verdict? Have times turned in German defence and security policy? My assessment of where we are at the moment - the good, the bad, and the ugly.
(thread)
The good:
1) German support for Ukraine.
Yes, despite all criticism, German support for Ukraine, financially but also militarily has been substantial and important.
2) Energy diversification. Germany, famously dependent on Russia for its gas supply, went from buying over half of its gas from Russia in 2021 to not buying any Russian gas since September 2022.
3) Change in discussion and tone.
This may not seem like much from the outside, but for me, there is something gratifying in hearing the chancellor argue that Germany “needs aircraft that fly, ships that swim, and soldiers who are optimally equipped” - and get applause for it.
The bad:
1) Many of the big Zeitenwende achievements just ensure the status quo or overcome self-imposed restrictions.
Good that we’re doing it, but not as big of a change as some might think.
2) We are still in peacetime mode.
Taking 10 months between the announcement of the €100bn special fund for the Bundeswehr and actually spending any money is ok during peacetime. But it is not appropriate for today’s situation.
3) Leadership? What leadership.
Germany continues to move at the speed of shame, dragged by others.
4) No big reform by an unambitious defence minister.
Let’s see what the next one can do.
5) Germany has a long way to go on learning about Sicherheitspolitik.
I keep repeating this mantra, doesn’t make it less true. An ill-informed public can easily fall prey to disinformation campaigns.
The Ugly.
1) Bad, bad, bad communication.
Yes, including THAT video.
‘nuff said.
2) Open letters.
Honestly, I don’t even wanna open this can of worms again. Let’s just say that we need to do better.
More detail on the good, the bad, and the ugly of the German Zeitenwende here
samf.substack.com/p/the-good-the…
Addendum to point 2 of “the bad”: Parliamentary commissioner of the armed forces Högl notes in FAZ that the special fund has not yet arrived in the Bundeswehr.

Full interview Empfehlenswerter Beitrag aus FAZnet:
faz.net/aktuell/politi…

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More from @RikeFranke

Jan 13
Oha.
Bild reports exclusively that German defence minister Christine Lambrecht is planning to resign.
If that’s true, I’d say today’s Spiegel story was the straw that broke the camel’s back. bild.de/politik/inland…
Btw, I have an article coming out tomorrow at 9am which mentions her as defence minister, so I hope she’s not resigning tonight.
This is the Spiegel story I’m referring to.
#Lambrecht
Read 4 tweets
Jan 13
Illustration of ⁦@derspiegel⁩ title story this week.
#Bundeswehr
“Ridicule and malice is something the Bundeswehr has gotten used to, but it hasn't been as bad as now for a long time.”

spiegel.de/politik/deutsc…
Read 6 tweets
Jan 11
I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding in the German debate about offence and defence (Angriff und Verteidigung), which explains some strange takes.
Short 🧵
Early on we had discussions about offensive and defensive weapons, and now, with the #Leopard2 combat tank discussion we hear again how Ukrainian defence is fine, but offence we (Germany/the west) cannot support.
But I think people are getting the levels wrong here. Ukraine was attacked. EVERYTHING Ukraine does atm is DEFENSIVE. Ukraine is defending its sovereignty, territory, and people.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 1
This is so unbearably tone-deaf. “There is war in Europe” - so I am standing in the middle of new year’s fireworks going off. Boom.

“There is war in Europe … for me this meant meeting some great people”.

Have they lost their mind in Berlin?
Most of the time when there are political communication disasters, one can see the intention (which went wrong). But this, from the setting, to the text and message, to the sound, is a catastrophe. With no good will can I come up with what they were trying to achieve.
#Lambrecht
I’ve translated the relevant bits (as close to the original as I could, hence some clunky phrasing).
I’m sorry, this is disastrous.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 17, 2022
I cannot believe that 9months into this war I have to listen to a German journalist monologuing how “we need to negotiate,weapons deliveries are important but we need to give diplomacy a chance” and he doesn’t get ONE QUESTION as to who he thinks should negotiate & about what?!🤯
Of - fucking - course diplomacy is important and of - fucking - course it would be better to talk rather than fight but who does he think could make this happen? Unbelievable that these banal and trite statements don’t get pushback.
I’m not even gonna link to the interview but it’s a big name journalist in a good public broadcaster show and we REALLY need to do better.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 7, 2022
Finally managed to read German chancellor Olaf Scholz’s essay in @ForeignAffairs on his view of the world and the meaning of #Zeitenwende. (Thread)

English version: foreignaffairs.com/germany/olaf-s…
He starts by noting that “an epochal tectonic shift” - a Zeitenwende - has happened. “Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has put an end to an era.”
“New powers have emerged or reemerged, including an economically strong and politically assertive China. In this new multipolar world, different countries and models of government are competing for power and influence.”
Read 20 tweets

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