On 27 February, Olaf Scholz held his famous #Zeitenwende speech. More than ten months have passed since then. What’s the verdict? Have times turned in German defence and security policy? My assessment of where we are at the moment - the good, the bad, and the ugly.
(thread)
(thread)
The good:
1) German support for Ukraine.
Yes, despite all criticism, German support for Ukraine, financially but also militarily has been substantial and important.
1) German support for Ukraine.
Yes, despite all criticism, German support for Ukraine, financially but also militarily has been substantial and important.
2) Energy diversification. Germany, famously dependent on Russia for its gas supply, went from buying over half of its gas from Russia in 2021 to not buying any Russian gas since September 2022.
3) Change in discussion and tone.
This may not seem like much from the outside, but for me, there is something gratifying in hearing the chancellor argue that Germany “needs aircraft that fly, ships that swim, and soldiers who are optimally equipped” - and get applause for it.
This may not seem like much from the outside, but for me, there is something gratifying in hearing the chancellor argue that Germany “needs aircraft that fly, ships that swim, and soldiers who are optimally equipped” - and get applause for it.
The bad:
1) Many of the big Zeitenwende achievements just ensure the status quo or overcome self-imposed restrictions.
Good that we’re doing it, but not as big of a change as some might think.
1) Many of the big Zeitenwende achievements just ensure the status quo or overcome self-imposed restrictions.
Good that we’re doing it, but not as big of a change as some might think.
2) We are still in peacetime mode.
Taking 10 months between the announcement of the €100bn special fund for the Bundeswehr and actually spending any money is ok during peacetime. But it is not appropriate for today’s situation.
Taking 10 months between the announcement of the €100bn special fund for the Bundeswehr and actually spending any money is ok during peacetime. But it is not appropriate for today’s situation.
3) Leadership? What leadership.
Germany continues to move at the speed of shame, dragged by others.
Germany continues to move at the speed of shame, dragged by others.
4) No big reform by an unambitious defence minister.
Let’s see what the next one can do.
Let’s see what the next one can do.
5) Germany has a long way to go on learning about Sicherheitspolitik.
I keep repeating this mantra, doesn’t make it less true. An ill-informed public can easily fall prey to disinformation campaigns.
I keep repeating this mantra, doesn’t make it less true. An ill-informed public can easily fall prey to disinformation campaigns.
The Ugly.
1) Bad, bad, bad communication.
Yes, including THAT video.
‘nuff said.
1) Bad, bad, bad communication.
Yes, including THAT video.
‘nuff said.
2) Open letters.
Honestly, I don’t even wanna open this can of worms again. Let’s just say that we need to do better.
Honestly, I don’t even wanna open this can of worms again. Let’s just say that we need to do better.
More detail on the good, the bad, and the ugly of the German Zeitenwende here
samf.substack.com/p/the-good-the…
samf.substack.com/p/the-good-the…
Addendum to point 2 of “the bad”: Parliamentary commissioner of the armed forces Högl notes in FAZ that the special fund has not yet arrived in the Bundeswehr.
Full interview Empfehlenswerter Beitrag aus FAZnet:
faz.net/aktuell/politi…
Full interview Empfehlenswerter Beitrag aus FAZnet:
faz.net/aktuell/politi…
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