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Jan 15 β€’ 8 tweets β€’ 5 min read
#TalkingPoint #mobilization
There are rising talks about Belarus involvement into the war.
My expectations ~100K would be added to πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί forces.

With all the current forces it should make ~1M army.

The main question where all of them could be deployed.
Where 1M army can be deployed?

There are 5 major directions
1 main objective to fully capture annexed territories🀯
Ignoring Kherson front as impossible for a full-scale invasion over the Dnipro (1M is not enough for that)

Let's explore those directions.
1. Invasion from Belarus towards Lviv. Highly unlikely.
Long supply lines, swampy forested terrain.
The area would be a death trap for a big army 50K+, because of all the complexities.
Impossible to succeed for a smaller group.
2. Kyiv in "3" days. Insane but plausible.
The most vulnerable place of the front is E391/M02 road - there are no towns on the way it should be used as a spine for all the offense.
300km to Kyiv makes it almost impossible to repeat the March trip.
500km front wont be easy.
3. Kharkiv. 3 scales of invasion
Wide arc. Sumy - Kharkiv - Kupiansk. Not for now.
Deep. Vovchansk - Velykyi Burluk - Kupiansk. Useless.
Straight. Urazovo - Kupiansk. Certainly

Kupiansk is a focal point for πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί success.
The area is crucial for both sides.
4. Donbas. Main battlefield.
5 directions for now: Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Novopavlivka.
Bakhmut:
Avdiivka:
Novopavlivka (Mariinka):

Whole front is a meat grinder with 150K capacity.
5. Zaporizhzhia. Land to trade.
45500 km2 chunk of a hostile land, that requires a lot of troops to secure the area.
Front line of 160km allows and 3 targets to attack (Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Velyka Novosilka) requires less forces than Donbass.
In a Year after the beginning of the war πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί should not be able to sustain anything but infantry.
Dip in the equipment losses should could be enough to maintain enough stuff to replenish current losses with a reserves.
πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί is somewhere near of equilibrium point in gears.

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More from @M0nstas

Vitaly Profile picture
Dec 9, 2022
πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί has switched their attention to the Soledar area.

Seems like they are changing their directions every 2 weeks.

it doesn’t mean that tension around Bakhmut would be decreased, only force distribution would change.
This behavior is some sort of pattern, that is repeated by πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί army with different frequency on different directions.
Similar swings can be observed near Avdiivka, where both flanks aren’t attacked at the same time.
πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί is faking the might.
The idea to swing the defense, overloading enemy flank and capturing the area is not recently invented. The main fail of πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί execution can be observed around Avdiivka. The northern flank is static since June, with a massive assault once in a month.
Read 8 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Dec 7, 2022
#Map Troitske
πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί fully abandoned Kharkiv region except a small area on the left bank of the Oskil river and there is a geographic reason for that.
With more talks about full liberation of Kharkiv region appears, let’s take a brief look at the area.
1. Troitske belongs to the Oskil river basin and placed on Urazova river, that merges with the Oskil in Urazovo. The village is placed close to 3 water sheds and surrounded by curved terrain of western, steeper, slopes of Krasna and Aidar rivers.
2. Urazovo is closer to the current front, has better transport connection, provides even better control over πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί supply lines and instantly liberates the North.
πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί knows that and use πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ inability to cross the border on it's advantage.
Read 5 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Nov 27, 2022
#TalkingPoint Holodomor
Was it a disaster - yes.
Was it intentional - 100%.
Was it nation specific - No.
Does it matter - No.

Genocide was a class based and πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ were in the wrong one.

Demographic pyramid of 1939 census can show how deep was the cut.
Current war is a 4th heavy strike on Ukraine population since 1900
Ukraine went through
- WWI and Red Terror
- Holodomor
- WWII
- Russian invasion
Each will leave a deep marks in the generations.

Census of 1959 shows that Ukraine has newer recover after the Holodomor.
It was not a single event that made it so horrible, it was a horrible timing that impossible to describe

Agrarian state with fertility rate of 6 went through 3 major population catastrophes to return as industrial state with fertility rate 2.2
Read 11 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Nov 27, 2022
#Thoughts
Since the beginning of the war there were only 6 cities πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί captured by force:
Volnovakha, Popasna, Izum, Mariupol, Lyman, Severodonetsk.
All the cities were captured with overwhelmed advantage in gears.

There were no major gains since June.
πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί has lost ~50k personal since Severodonetsk, 30k came in last 2 months.
All the recent activities were handled purely by the infantry.
It looks like most of gears were replaced by the infantry. There might be different reasons for that, but πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί is no longer losing stuff.
We are observing first evidences of WWII to WWI transition, where copters are used instead of artillery and more WWII barrels appears on the battlefield.
Missiles is the only weapon πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ has no proper answer for and that is the only weapon πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί heavily relies.
Read 5 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Nov 26, 2022
NYT

Ukraine used Caesars on barges to shoot over the Snake island.
To shell Russian positions at Snake Island, for instance, the Ukrainians put Caesars, with a 40-kilometer range, on barges and towed them out 10 kilometers to hit the island, which was 50 kilometers away, astonishing the French

nytimes.com/2022/11/26/wor…
Defence-UA has published article about that (πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦)
defence-ua.com/army_and_war/j…
Read 4 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Nov 18, 2022
#TalkingPoint
πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί missiles are targeting πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ heavy industry.
πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί wants to destroy the future of πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦, sending it into a stone age.

This will allow πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί to get over πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ even in case of loosing the war, swallowing nonexistent economy.
Targets for πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί has changed, once again.
First they were targeting storage facilities and military targets
Then they have switched to power generation and distribution
Now they are going for strategic factories.

This is planned crime world all can observe in real time.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ is one of the worlds developed countries. Developed that was mainly inherited from the collapsed empire and lost in time of independence with the help of Eastern neighbours.
Industry was waiting for the dawn, but may not meet one.
Read 5 tweets

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