First, let's look at the damage. The sector ended up with a 54% default rate or USD 54bn on offshore USD debt in 2022. This was worse than a 31% bear case scenario predicted by GS a year ago.
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China Property
The debt defaults were concentrated in private developers. Only ~25% of top 50 POE developers are still considered non-distressed.
Housing is a social sector. This looks like an unwind of the private sector, leaving fundamental demand to be fulfilled by SOEs. 3/
MSCI China will be down over -20% for the second year if the year ends today, and the worst yearly decline since 2008. Property crisis, Common Prosperity, US-China tensions and US delisting fears top a full list of risks. 1/
Here is a breakdown of MSCI China by listing locations and sectors (based on $MCHI).
First, on listing location. 1) Delisting risk is almost off the table by now. Only 8% of the index remains listed in the US and half of that are also listed in HK.
and...
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Still on listing location...
2) Only 16% of the index is onshore Shanghai or Shenzhen listed, which means only a small portion can directly benefit from onshore liquidity easing while 84% of the market is prone to international flows and sentiment. 3/ scmp.com/economy/china-…
China property HY fell -54% and equities -33% since mid-2021.
Bigger dip may not imply bigger rebound.
Equities can be diluted as bonds can be written down. But after that's done, equity returns are symmetric vs asymmetric for bonds, i.e. better risk compensation. $CHIR 2/
China property equities performance out of the trough coincided w sales volume trend.
Sales volume picked up 6 mths after home prices bottomed, which had happened 6 mths after easing.
Past few weeks, easing stance is finally aligned across policymakers.