More BRRR. But that's not the question of today, which remains these darn chainswaps Bitfinex keeps doing.
This isn't small potatoes yknow. $388 million in 5 days!
I really wonder what the function of Bitfinex 2 on Ethereum is as well. Since these chainswaps keep originating from there, and the INs before the chainswap are a total mystery to me.
Looking up these transactions in the Bitfinex hotwallet, we can see the money flows in from other wallets *right before* it flows into Bitfinex 2 - but not always the exact amount that came into the hot wallet.
Honestly this looks like a bot network (cut and pasted together):
While looking through the hot wallet i ran into a known wallet as part of this transfer batch:
It's also interesting to note that 53 million came into Bitfinex Hot from the chainswap wallet on ETH, 53 million went out to Kraken on TRON - but *not all 53 million* coming in from Kraken to Bitfinex Hot on ETH went into Bitfinex 2.
Indicating either commingling or ownership.
I.E. Bitfinex is commingling user funds as it's not being sent over from one chain/wallet to another 1 to 1. They'd have to "top it off" with their own money.
Or they aren't because they themselves own this wallet - but that'd indicate they own *all* these Bitfinex 2 wallets.
I also checked, on the 53M txn there's a $4,357,316 difference i can't square away afterwards, so it's not a case of delay. Only 2 other txn exceeded that amount; a $48M of the same account and a $7.5M one that itself was $2.5M less than the IN in Bitfinex Hot.
Again either they're commingling funds in Bitfinex Hot or they own all of these accounts and they've been operating an elaborate network of trading bots (or both which is also fine with me).
So the majority of this chainswap came from 1 account. Infact $165M out of $150M did:
So. $150M was chainswapped from Bitfinex ETH to Bitfinex TRON.
$165M of that $150M came into Bitfinex 2 from 1 wallet.
$171M of that $165M was swapped into Bitfinex Hot from the ETH Kraken swap wallet.
$171M was swapped from Bitfinex Hot to Kraken Hot on TRON.
In short: I favor Bitfinex owning all of these wallets and this being some money laundering scheme. I don't know why they'd chainswap or what the behind the scenes effect of all this is - but that it's happening is indisputable.
It's always something when numbers don't line up.
It gets even more weird looking at Bitfinex Hot on TRON (sorry can't help myself, with their hot wallet being fairly inactive it becomes possible to track these things).
The money went from Bitfinex 2 to the treasury on ETH, on ETH it went to Bitfinex Hot, but then it split:
This actually matters because that means Bitfinex 2 cannot be a "staking" or otherwise locking up wallet, including an official chainswap wallet (I.E. put your ETH tether here and we'll get you TRON tether).
Because that money would be distributed from its TRON counterpart.
If the -BeL wallet can move the money out of Bitfinex Hot before it's touched Bitfinex 2 on TRON, that means either Bitfinex is touching customer funds, or they own that wallet to begin with so it makes no difference to their control what route they send the money through.
Looking at the activity in Bitfinex 2 on ETH pre-chainswap and TRON Bitfinex 2 post-chainswap further indicates Bitfinex controls ALL these wallets, as now lots of small transactions have changed into a lump sump transaction in and out (or again, massive commingling happening):
The Bitfinex 2 wallet on TRON itself showing some very sketch behavior, transferring money out in bulk to Bitfinex Hot only to *right after* transfer alot or even most of the money right back.
And the latest chainswap happening *right in the middle of this* to boot.
If this isn't enough to prove shenanigans with ownership on-chain i dunno why we have blockchain. What's the point of verification if it's ignored?
That one blue link coming out of the ETH #Tether treasury way at the beginning?
That's Bitfinex printing themselves unbacked #USDT. Because that USDT went straight into Bitfinex 2. Which after this thread only a fool would bet is backed by "investments".
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
I'ma bout to lose my goddamn mind. I've broken down a monthly+ chart of Bitfinex's USDT:USD peg, compared to BTC:USD on Coinbase and Tether's market cap; everything since the recent BTC bottom.
I mean to me these patterns are obvious. This is such a disaster.🧵
To clarify:
Every ponzi has a dollar (or local currency) limit. That's the real cash pile, which they use to service real dollar obligations; obligations that don't take casino tokens.
The real cash limit here is whatever leverage Abraxas/Cumberland/Wintermute can build up.
Meaning Abraxas and Cumberland lend to buy USDT, Wintermute lends to buy crypto, then Abraxas/Cumberland sells USDT to Wintermute for Crypto, they use the dollars to lever down/cycle again, while Wintermute pushes everything into Binance where it cycles until retail buys it.
You know why the fucking Greek 10 year is trading 1.4% below the US 10 year? Why the market is *explicitly* saying the US is riskier to lend money to than Greece?
Greek debt-to-gdp in 2023 was *lower* than 2012. Italy is our worst basket case running 6% deficits - still lower.
The UK isn't even lower than 2020, and a full 20% higher than 2012. The United States managed to lower it by 3% vs 2020, but is worse off compared to 2012 at 22.7% higher debt to gdp. And it's higher.
Europe has known, and has experience with, Austerity. That's the difference.
#Bitcoin tagged a $94K handle because the cartel needed some USD. We're sorry for the inconvenience this caused (thanks for the $1B in liquidations though).
The peg was restored and we'll return you to your regular slumber forthwith.
USDT:USD on Kraken can only spike if somebody throws a bunch of dollars at it, which means somebody is buying Tethers with dollars en masse. Not the behavior of somebody trying to rapidly get out of crypto, it'd be the other way around.
And why not buy USDT with BTC directly?
Cause it's all a fraud anyway. Kraken's orderbook until a deep de-peg is only $7 million deep. And USDT/USD is tied for biggest volume on Kraken with BTC/USD. Which has $15M to clean out the book until $500 lower (can't check further). This is all very shallow.
#Tether's done $1.4B in 2 days at 0%, so Saylor had best hurry up if he wants to keep pace with their rate of printing. $3.5B just this week alone. Especially since Tether's still at a high premium so they'll print way more. Infact they're printing hundreds of millions right now.
Jesus christ, calm the fuck down. #Tether's premium's hit $1.0023 on CMC, a full 10x above the minimum arb. Highest price since March atleast (though it's down a bit since i started making the thread).
This happening while Binance does another $2B "chainswap" from TRON to ETH. To be fair, it was done a while after the runup started. Printer's started up on TRON again, including a Bitfinex TRON to ETH chainswap.
Obviously i trust these swaps as far as i can throw them, though i've got no idea what they mean.
If i were to speculate - maybe the cartel is using the Trump pump as cover to ditch Justin Sun. Obviously, Binance is too important to let fail. And Justin is a ticking time bomb.