Thread by @marisalourenco

#Russia's whistle-stop tour of southern Africa included a visit to #Angola, despite President Lourenço's pivot away from the former Soviet power in recent years. A 🧵 on what's happened between the two countries lately and what it all means.

#Angola in October 2022 became one of just a handful of African states to condemn Russia's invasion of #Ukraine, having previously abstained. Apparently this came from pressure from the EU (mostly Portugal). voaportugues.com/a/angola-vota-…

In December 2022, Lourenço announced his desire for #NATO to equip the military. Russia has supplied Angola with arms for years, but the president spoke of wanting to move away from the Soviet-technique: voaportugues.com/a/grande-entre… (Analysis in English here: news24.com/news24/africa/…)

The shift away from Russia and towards the West (notably the US) has been observed throughout most of Lourenço's time in office, of course. But these two actions showed that Angola wasn't simply not nurturing historical ties, but actively turning away from Russia.

So what would Lavrov have been trying to achieve on this visit, with the Lourenço administration having made itself clear? Of concern must be the presence of Russian company Alrosa in Angola, with its stake in world's fourth-largest diamond, Catoca, located in Lunda Sul province.

It is unlikely that the state-owned diamond mining company Endiama will look to take away any part of Alrosa's share, but it Russia would want to be careful, given the boost Alrosa's activities give to its economy.

Then there is Angola's role in the wider region, where Lourenço's interventions in the Great Lakes helps to maintain broad stability there. Angola is an important in both southern and central Africa, a factor of which both Russia and West are aware. theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-…

Lavrov was not received with hostility when he arrived in Luanda, of course, and that's no surprise. The government may be more interested in what better ties with the West can do for it, but it could only show respect for a country instrumental to its struggle for independence.

While in Luanda, Lavrov said some developing nations had been coerced by the West into condemning Russia, and blame it for igniting/prolonging the conflict. (He likely also asked Angola to reconsider its position on Russia's actions towards Ukraine.) clubofmozambique.com/news/angola-ru…

He also spoke about wanting to develop a strategic partnership with Angola. It's important to note that while Russia has been Angola's primary arms partner over the years, it has been unable to exert influence over the African state.

So where to from here? It is doubtful that Lavrov's visit changed anything for the Angolan government - FM Téte Antonio took a measured but clear response to his remarks, calling for restraint from Russia and emphasising Angola's relationship with Ukraine: channelafrica.co.za/sabc/home/chan…

Ultimately, the West is much more integral to Angola's development and reforms efforts than Russia can be. Angola's foreign relations is also embracing new partners, like the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Germany, etc.