Thread by @ergun_unutmaz

1) In the @WSJ, last year @Justinbaer utilised a very useful perspective to historical declines and S&P #BearMarkets.

Following @naterattner's chart, I've applied the similar methodology to #BIST and let's have a closer look to the results.

2) In the study, I selected #XU100 Index as a proxy and worked with 6.386 daily observations (Range is from 02/07/1997 to 20/01/2023).

Below is history of #drawdowns from All Time High (#ATH) levels to the lowest values for the #BIST. Left scale shows the percentage declines.

3) As you can see, maximum drawdown is minus 67.03% and there were more occasions for 50% drops in the past.

Black dotted line represents #BearMarket territory with more than 20% declines from the peaks, and it looks more common and recursive to drastic declines.

4) In the following chart, I have added a time dimension for drawdowns.

📌The shortest drop is in 4 days with a -30.41%.

📌The longest period to the next ATH was 1.039 days and at the 1.018th day loss was -10.28% compared tıo ATH.

📌Deepest point was at -67,03 on 22/02/2001.

5) On the previous chart, there is a turquoise rectangle above on the left. Here you see it in a bigger scale.

📌 This is the dispersion of data for a max. 1 year and above -10%.

📌 The volatility looks also high in the short time frames both for corrections and bear markets.

6) The story and volatility also have their bright side. Returns might be considerably high and quick.

Last year BIST had an extraordinary performance while most major stock exchange indices were in bear market territory.

7) Although I do have investments in BIST and I think that some companies are very promising, approaching elections and fundamentals also bear risk elements.

For further reading (and disclaimer) you can visit my page.

ergununutmaz.com/bist-ve-ayi-pi…