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Here is this Week’s Market Wrap

'2023: The Year to Show Conviction' written by @shyamsek

A Thread (1/n)

#stockmarket #investors #marketwrap
The markets seem to be progressively losing steam. This would show up as weak sentiment, selling pressure, lower volumes on exchanges, and FII outflows. (2/n)

#stockmarketindia #FII #investors
But, there is also a section of domestic investors showing remarkable resilience and persistence in their investing. They are still buying every dip and gradually scaling up their portfolios. (3/n)

#investing #portfolio #equity
Read 13 tweets
1) In the @WSJ, last year @Justinbaer utilised a very useful perspective to historical declines and S&P #BearMarkets.

Following @naterattner's chart, I've applied the similar methodology to #BIST and let's have a closer look to the results. Image
2) In the study, I selected #XU100 Index as a proxy and worked with 6.386 daily observations (Range is from 02/07/1997 to 20/01/2023).

Below is history of #drawdowns from All Time High (#ATH) levels to the lowest values for the #BIST. Left scale shows the percentage declines. Image
3) As you can see, maximum drawdown is minus 67.03% and there were more occasions for 50% drops in the past.

Black dotted line represents #BearMarket territory with more than 20% declines from the peaks, and it looks more common and recursive to drastic declines.
Read 7 tweets
Weekly 2022-23 #bearmarket update. Wait until you see #6!
If you're new, see this OP:
2/ Perspective. 2022 trend matches 1969 trend.
3/ Could we be in a recovery like 1962? Possibly. But the #economic picture was so much different, better, and improving back then. I doubt this will track 1962. Of the possible remaining historical bear analogs, 1 is up, 5 are down.
Read 6 tweets
Today's #MacroView is out. Why today isn't 1982 and Jerome Powell isn't Paul Volker.…
The road to 1982 didn’t start in 1980. The buildup of #inflation started long before the #ArabOil Embargo. Economic growth, wages, and savings rates catalyzed “demand push” inflation.… Image
Furthermore, the Government ran no deficit, and household debt to net worth was about 60%. So, while #inflation increased and interest #rates rose, the average household could sustain their living standard.… Image
Read 5 tweets
1) #BearMarkets yani #AyıPiyasaları üzerine daha önce iki yazı hazırlamıştım. Ayı piyasalarında düşüşler ani ve sert olmakla birlikte düşüş sürecinde yüzde 10 ve üzeri güçlü tepkiler de görülür.…
2) Bu çıkışların ne zaman başlayacağını bilmek kolay/mümkün olmadığı gibi çıkışın tepki mi yoksa %20 üzeri yükselişle tekrar #BullMarket yani #BoğaPiyasası dönüşü mü olduğunu söylemek bilinemez bir konuda ahkâm kesmektir.

Elbette bir tahmin ve planımız olabilir. Ona gelelim:
3) Temmuz ayının ilk haftasında #DAX Endeksi kapsamındaki bazı hisseler başta olmak üzere aşırı satış yaşandığını düşünerek alım işlemleri gerçekleştirmiştim.

O dönemin gündemi düşünüldüğünde ve çoğunluğun satış yaptığı bir piyasada alıcı olmak stresliydi.
Read 9 tweets
All #Sensex #BearMarkets in #OneChart

Most of us have never seen a market crash like this earlier. But it doesn’t mean markets haven’t fallen like this ever before. Take a look at all the bear markets and you will get my point.

#coronacrash #markets #bandkarobazaar Image
1. The 1992 crash was the first one for Indian stock markets. It took just 36 sessions for the Sensex to fall by 40% from all-time highs.
2. The bear market after the Dotcom bubble burst in 2000 was the longest. Sensex dropped 56% from all-time high and took 405 sessions or 19 months to bottom out.
Read 6 tweets

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