Thread by @KleineBrockhoff

Unnoticed by the public+just in time for the🇪🇺🇺🇦 summit, big progress was made last week on🇺🇦reconstruction planning. White smoke: G7 have agreed on governance of donor coordination platform, first meeting was held. Progress report🧵: structure, finances, challenges, agenda 1/

In Dec. 22, the G7 had taken charge of recovery planning after conferences without decisions in Lugano (July 22) and Berlin (Oct. 22). After months of negotiations, agreement on governance was reached earlier in January. First (video) meeting took place on January 26th. 2/

A triumvirate as steering committee for the "🇺🇦Multi-Agency Donor Coordination Platform":
1⃣ 🇺🇸: Mike Pyle, Dep. Nat. Sec. Advisor for Int. Economics
2⃣ 🇺🇦: Serhii Marchenko, Finance Minister
3⃣ 🇪🇺: Gert Jan Koopman (@GertJanEU), Dir Gen DG NEAR
3/

G7 political involvement foreseen during Worldbank/IMF spring and fall meetings as well as during annual reconstruction and recovery conferences. Next: London, June 21/22.
4/

Secretariat to be located at🇪🇺Comm. with add. office in Kyiv. 🇺🇸 wanted secretariat to be small (8-10 people) to avoid platform's institution building at 🇪🇺. Consequence: 🇪🇺 Comm. to build its own support structure at DG NEAR. 🇺🇦wants to build out office in Kyiv. 5/

Meetings to include "triumvirate", reps. of G7 countries, IFIs (@WorldBank, @IMF, @EIB , @EBRD+@Coebanknews=Council of Europe Development Bank)
6/

Advantages, compromises, downsides:
1⃣ Good that G7 takes lead. Big tent for int. involvement needed to generate funds. Along the lines of an earlier @gmfus proposal.
7/

2⃣ Good that🇺🇸is on board and was very active during first meeting. Good sign for postwar transatlantic burden and opportunity sharing covering security as well as reconstruction.🇺🇸had largely been out of sight in Lugano/Berlin.
8/

3⃣ Unfortunately, platform has no strong leadership, no well-respected "Mr. or Mrs. Marshall" who can make decisions and create followership within a complicated global structure.
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4⃣ Unresolved: which role for 🇯🇵? Which role for rotating G7 chairs? So far: no strong role foreseen so not to loose steam through rotating nature of presidency. Seems reasonable
10/

5⃣ Next step: turn a G7 into a G7 PLUS structure. 🇨🇭+🇳🇴 and other non-G7 western donor countries should be attracted soon.
11/

6⃣ Good: platform will address short-term budgetary as well as repair+early recovery needs before turning to long term reconstruction. This is the "Financial Ramstein" group that🇺🇦needed given🇷🇺's attacks on infrastructure. Will ensure predictable+rhythmic macro-financial aid
12/

How did the first meeting last week go? PM @Denys_Shmyhal opened and outlined 🇺🇦's immediate priorities:
1⃣ Restoration of energy sector
2⃣ Humanitarian demining
3⃣ Damaged housing
4⃣ Critical and social infrastructure
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Key problem for 🇺🇦: continuing budget shortfall due to 🇷🇺's war of national annihilation. While 🇪🇺 has pledged bn 18 Euro and 🇺🇸 bn 10$, 🇺🇦 might still be bn 10$ short in 2023.
14/

Other priorities the platform should have:
1⃣ After concentrating on governance, find resources
2⃣ Focus on anti-corruption+conditionality (see scandal)
3⃣ Start preparing private sector engagement, importantly: design "war insurance"
4⃣ Enhance🇺🇦absorption capacity for aid
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Bottom line: the challenges are formidable but an int. structure is now in place to address them. This was a good start. END

@gmfus @A_Sloat @JonDKatz @jfkirkegaard @M_Baranowski @mprochwicz @DrJJanes @nicolange_ @jan_techau @NielsAnnen @W_Schmidt_ @MSCheusgen @bernhardlorentz @derekchollet @KDonfried @Julie_C_Smith @NormEisen @JoshRudes @gmfstokes
#UkraineWar #econtwitter #miltwitter