🧵Many thanks to @theEconomist for the opportunity to lay out my thinking about why Western leaders ought to do more to bring the #UkraineRussiaWar to a negotiated close, even while continuing to support #Ukraine. 1/7
I sympathize with Ukraine’s desire to fight on, but their maximalist war aims are unrealistic. They are unlikely to be achieved without an huge increase in support from the West, but the West lacks the vital interest that would justify this. 3/7
Getting diplomacy going will require tough conversations to persuade Ukraine to adopt a more realistic approach to its war aims. Western leaders have the right and a responsibility to do this. 4/7
Concern a negotiated settlement would “reward” Putin, and perhaps encourage Chinese aggression in #Taiwan, is overblown. If the negotiations froze the battlelines where they are now, Putin would have paid a very high price for very limited gains. 5/7
Talks also offer promise of post-conflict reconstruction. And that is where Ukraine’s true victory over Russia will lie: in becoming a vibrant #democracy well integrated into Europe. That process is already likely to last until the 2030s or beyond. 6/7
Diplomats would have to aim low at first, but even a temporary end to the fighting would offer a chance for emotions to cool, lives to be saved and resources spared. Another frozen conflict is better than the risks of a hot war for years to come. 7/7
I share the frustration over Putin’s murderous war.
But I fear we have grown accustomed to fighting enemies who had no way to out-escalate us.
A thread on what we can learn from the Libya #NFZ for our options today and the risks of escalation: (1/15)
Eleven years ago, the U.S. was on the cusp of imposing its no-fly zone over Libya to stop Qaddafi’s attacks on civilians. Now pressure is growing for a #NFZ over Ukraine. (2/15)
NATO expected a quick no fly zone operation in Libya. Conditions were favorable because most of Qaddafi’s air force had defected.
But the Libyan dictator still had old Soviet long-range surface to air systems -- SA-2 Guideline, SA-3 Goa, and SA-5 Gammons. (3/15)
THREAD: For nearly two decades, America has sought to remake Afghanistan on a western model. It turns out that Afghanistan was never America’s to fix. I was part of the foreign policy establishment that tried to find technical solutions for the challenges of nation-building. 1/18
But ultimately there can be no technical solutions for intractable political problems. Weapons and skills are transferable. The will to fight for your country is not. 2/18
The dramatic collapse of Afghan National Security Forces is the best evidence that the project had become a Potemkin village – if any was needed. 3/18