Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukraine TVD, 1-31 JAN 23. The first month of 2023 saw a determined effort by the VSRF to finally seize control of Bakhmut in central Donetsk, blunt ZSU advances in Luhansk, and expand territorial control in Zaporizhzhia. #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #UkraineFrontLines

2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions.

3/ Luhansk OD. This OD remains an important disruption zone for Russian & Ukrainian forces. For the ZSU, the Luhansk OD still presents the best opportunity for victory in the Donbas. Expect continued Ukrainian efforts to liberate Svatove. #Luhansk

4/ Donetsk OD. The reintroduction of VDV forces into offensive operations in the Bakhmut area has allowed the SVRF in the Donetsk OD to finally make the marginal tactical progress it should have exploited after the breakthrough at Popasna in early May 2022. #Donetsk

5/ Bakhmut AO. Bakhmut remains the most critical Objective Point of Maneuver in the Ukrainian TVD. Seizure of this point opens the possibility for the OGORFV to pivot on multiple axes in central Donetsk, most important of which is an advance NW on the M-03 Highway. #Bakhmut

6/ Zaporizhzhia OD. This OD remains the most vulnerable for the SVRF. The SVRF will continue its efforts to capture Orkhiv & Vuhledar at whatever cost is required. Expect an increased reliance on VMF Naval Infantry, Wagner PMC, and the VDV to achieve objectives. #Vuhledar

7/ Kherson OD. Russian forces will continue an active defense in along the Dnipro River with a focus on retaking Velykyi Potemkin Island while deploying reinforcements into fortified defensive positions along the M-17 and P-47 Highways. #Kherson

8/ Ukraine OTMO. Despite an increase in localized naval activity the Black Seas Fleet remains focused on force protection of vessels, facilities, & personnel rather than offensive operations or active patrolling of sea lanes & the northern Black Sea coast / littoral. #Sevastopol

9/ Ukraine SVKO. Russian aerospace forces will priorities targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure and troop concentrations over the suppression of Ukrainian air defenses. Ukrainian HIMARS & UCAVs will continue targeting Russian supply & command nodes. #airdefensefofukraine

10/ I would like to thank everyone for their continued support. This is a short update as I get back into the swing of things, but more expanded content & analysis will be coming.

11/ This summary is indebted to the excellent reporting & analysis by @WarintheFuture, @IAPonomarenko, @DefMon3, @CovertShores, @TheShipYard2, @ragnarbjartur, @eerikmatero, @ChuckPfarrer, @Pouletvolant3, @dupuyinstitute, @Orin_int, @WarMoniter3, @konrad_muzyka
among many others.

12/ This open-source operational summary of the Ukrainian TVD is based on publicly available information from the ZSU daily operations brief, VSRF daily operations brief, various Ukrainian & Russian Telegram channels, western intel agencies public statements, & military analysts.

13/ Any errors to the information presented here is strictly my own and will be corrected as soon as it is discovered.