Thread by @ukraine_world

China's policy on the Russo-Ukraine war: A conflict of interest. UkraineWorld spoke to Oleksiy Koval, international journalist, China specialist. Key points – in our brief, #UkraineWorldAnalysis 1/14

China has set a goal of improving relations with the US and Europe this year. Moreover, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will visit China on February 5, in accordance with the agreement reached between Presidents Xi and Biden at the G20 summit. 2/14

There are two aspects that determine whether China will manage to improve its relations with the West: 1. China's relations with Russia. China is trying to maintain its partnership with Russia while also improving relations with Europe and the US. 3/14

2. China seeks to act as an equal partner in negotiations. However, China refuses to even recognize the fact of Russian aggression against Ukraine, a policy which has proven to be a non-starter with the US and EU and a significant obstacle in improving relations. 4/14

When China saw that its position met with disapproval from the EU as a whole, it started working to influence individual EU states - like Germany, Greece, and Hungary - in order to try to shake the EU policy consensus and soften the policy for China. 5/14

🇨🇳's policy is aimed at breaking 🇪🇺 unity and strengthening the role of individual players through which it can influence and get between the relations between the 🇪🇺 and the 🇺🇸. But the 🇷🇺 invasion of 🇺🇦 has brought the 🇺🇸 and 🇪🇺 closer together. 6/14

China remains Russia's main trading partner, as it can fill profitable niches left by the departure of European companies from the Russian market. China is looking for areas in which it can cooperate with Russia in order to avoid secondary sanctions. 7/14

This year, China is returning to buying Australian coal, which means that Russia will dump its prices even more. Russia has no leverage to use with China beyond appealing to China's anti-Western views. 8/14

Taiwan is much more difficult to defend than 🇺🇦, particularly due to logistics. China is preparing for a blockade of Taiwan, not an attack. It does not need to directly land on the island and kill the Taiwanese, because doing so would lose Xi the chance to unite the nation. 9/14

China is drawing conclusions from Putin's mistakes. Therefore, China is instead considering the possibility of blocking access to the sea for the American Navy. 10/14

It is studying Putin's Crimean annexation operation from 2014, why Putin succeeded then, and why he is losing now. China's grand strategy for 30 years has been as follows: first defend its coast, then advance to the first line of islands offshore, which includes Taiwan. 11/14

China abandoned Stalinist barracks communism and is taking a more nationalistic approach, and is accordingly trying to establish relations with the nationalists of Taiwan (KMT). 12/14

In fact, Zelensky's 10-point peace plan manages to intersect with China's positions, for example, that Ukraine is fighting for territorial integrity (China did not support Russia's annexation of Crimea), and that the UN should play a role in resolving the issue. 13/14

Now real reform of the UN can start with the expulsion of Russia. There are two options: either exclude Russia, or restrict the right to vote. In cases where issues affect the interests of a permanent member of the Security Council, that member must recuse itself. 14/14