Thread by @TradetheMatrix1

Some say recession won't come because too many see it ahead which is not normal.

Being contrarian is a skill, it requires careful calibration, let's break down some reasons why recession will likely come and dismissing it is not "black sheep" thinking at all:

1.

Recessions aren't signaled ahead, but depressions can be. This is what many are missing, we won't go into recession but more likely global depression crisis. Those come slowly and creep upon unlike recessions which strike fast. Recessions are more common unlike depressions.

2.

All past modern crisis events were recessions and therefore unexpected. Many use past two examples to build their whole reasoning on why we won't see crisis "because too many see it ahead". They are missing the fact that we are repeating older cycle from 30s and not 2008.

3.

Indicators and econ data are clearly signaling significant weakening of economic activity. This is not an opinion. It just takes time before employment and consumer spending start to notice it (6 months plus lag). So don't jump the gun on assumptions "nothing is happening".

4.

Housing is major wealth component of global economy, it is likely next to take hit. This will probably be the epicenter of depression deepening. It's not around yet.

5.

Some think that to be good #contrarian you have to go opposite of opposite of opposite until you find noone who agrees with you. That is not how practical or realistic contrarian approach works. It's about who you agree with and how many of quality views are multiplied.

6.

This is my high conviction read whether you trust it or not that's up to you. Geopolitical breakup of Eurasia is the core of why we see this unfolding. Depression crisis is just rigged event to speed up the dissolution and increase deglobalization (Russia, China).

7.
$SPY