Thread by @SWP_IntSecurity

A French nuclear umbrella, tensions over New START, proliferation risks in the Middle East, deterrence in Asia, & emotions in nuclear brinkmanship: our #STAND team's regular thread on recent news and analyses to #underSTAND #nuclear #deterrence and #threats (no endorsement).(1/8)

Calls for a 🇫🇷French #nuclear umbrella for Europe have multiplied in recent months. While this is not a feasible idea, Paris could take steps to strengthen Europe’s deterrence, assess #STAND’s @lydiawachs & @liviuhorovitz in a new SWP Comment (GER).(2/8)bit.ly/3HhxQLC

The 🇺🇸Biden admin found 🇷🇺Russia to be in noncompliance with its #NewSTART treaty obligation to facilitate inspections 👉bit.ly/3HPKOl4. See the full US report 👉bit.ly/3HtfQxL & the threads by @james_acton32 for background 👉 bit.ly/3X3t8XS.(3/8)

Yet, it is “manifestly in 🇷🇺Russia's national interest” to keep #NewSTART alive as both 🇨🇳China and the 🇺🇸United States are modernising their #nuclear arsenals, stresses @Gottemoeller, US chief negotiator of the treaty, in @FT (€).(4/8)on.ft.com/3YjzPFY

Meanwhile, #proliferation concerns persist in the Middle East. 🇮🇷Iran has now “amassed enough nuclear material for several nuclear weapons,” #IAEA Director Rafael Grossi warned this week, @jongambrellAP @AP reports.(5/8)
bit.ly/3HLiUGW

In Asia, US allies 🇰🇷South Korea & 🇯🇵Japan are seeking to bolster deterrence in light of 🇰🇵North Korea’s evolving #nuclear threat, writes @DaslYoon @WSJ. US DefSec Lloyd Austin promised expanded US military drills with South Korea on Tuesday.(6/8)on.wsj.com/40lGeCj

What might push Southern Asia toward #nuclear #deterrence multipolarity? @toby_dalton examines the deterrence dynamics & prospects for confidence-building measures between the region’s nuclear powers, in @J_NuclearDisarm.(7/8)
bit.ly/3wMGyMY

And finally, @reidpauly & Rose McDermott bring the human back in, studying the role of psychology and emotion in #nuclear #brinkmanship, in their new @Journal_IS article.
(8/8)bit.ly/3HhSVWg