It can be difficult to tell with certainty whether a random virus is engineered or not based purely on the sequence, but when we talk about a specific virus, e.g. SC2, we were 'lucky' that we can tell with high certainty it is a natural virus.
Why? 1/
We were lucky in the sense that coronaviruses evolve through recombination (not only random mutations & selection).
That means their genomes consist of a patchwork of puzzle pieces assembled by crossings paths with other CoVs.
In SC2's case, we talking like 27 recombination pc
Each piece comes with its own evolutionary history and can be mapped on a #phylogenetic family tree based on common ancestors & cousin viruses.
This allows researchers to figure out what "crossing events" lead to SC2 genome by sampling CoVs in the wild academic.oup.com/gbe/article/14β¦
virological.org/t/the-comparatβ¦
Like this, they figured out that the SC2 got its final genomic shape rather recently, maybe just 3 years before it was introduced to the human population at the Huanan market.
As for the "engineering" question: the interesting thing about this natural recombination in the wild is that it not be faked in the lab. Period.
Now while this does not preclude all research-related scenarios, including leaking a natural virus or 'heating up' such a virus...
The Brownstone institute is a fracking-billionaire funded anti-science #disinformation outlet
I just highlight some passages to show that the #lableak conspiracy myth would always have happened, no matter where COVID first broke out
If not the WIV, then π½
A master thread: 1/
Many amplifiers, including some science journalists, believe that a legitimate scientific uncertainty & geographic coincidence underneath the #originofcovid controversy is the root cause and driver for the conspiracy myth.
This is false
Yes, the inital uncertainties were real
2/
but no matter where the virus initially broke out, there would always be some lab or some scientists that could be made to associate with.
All pandemics were followed by #conspiracy theories about their origins. The 1918 flu was blamed on the Germans and their aspirin, ffs.
Alina Chan is not a friend of a GOP witch hunt into US virologists. She knows it will not yield any evidence. Albeit related to her endless mudslinging, she fears it will eventually backfire & vindicate her targets... quite cynically, she'd rather prefer to abuse uncertainty.
For her strategic goals, it is much better to manipulate the public with endless speculative tantrums and artificial uncertainty than see virologists being not found guilty in congressional hearings.
The simple fact is that she made a big bet being a vocal contrarian and now...
all that awaits her is the public waking up to her nonsense and a fall from grace (she has already fallen out from professional circles because of her conspiracy mongering ofc)
To stay in the public limelight, she much rather sees the origins uncertainty never resolve, or go...
We sat down with Professor Edward Holmes to put him to task about his evolutionary research, his role in finding the #origins investigations, proximal origins, collaborations with China, and much, much more.
Prof. Holmes is involved in many scientific papers related to origins research; studying how RNA viruses (including HIV, Ebola, SARS, Hantavirus etc) jump species boundaries for many years, and working with Chinese scientists since 2012, he was perfectly...
2/
positioned to contribute to the rush for more understanding when Covid started; among his many scientific achievements, he was the first to get the SARS-CoV-2 genome published, he was involved in studies finding SC2 relatives in the wild, he has been at the Huanan market in...
3/
Inventing conflicts of interest for scientists is a tactic from vested interest to discredit domain experts
Dr. Chan, a non expert, is profiting directly from book sales (& knock on gains from profile boosts) by #discrediting scientific experts
Tell us again how does CoI work?
There is no need to write a sensationalist & false book with a lifelong anti-science attack dog, climate change contrarian and AIDS conspiracists to smear scientists that reach conclusions one might disagree with, one can just publish papers to advance another point of view.
The problem is of course that alternative views based on speculation, not evidence, are not credible.
The only play contrarians like Dr. Chan have to bridge that credibility gap is not to improve hers, but trying to drag domain experts through the mud with mostly made up BS.
I've written a bit about this Musk Twitter thing from a system's perspective, and this here π½ is a clear signal for what I deem one of the likely outcomes.
System disintegration into smaller subsystems.
Twitter will become smaller, weaker & probably align itself with 1/
If you are in the EU (+adjacent), expect Twitter to be gone sooner rather than later and live with an alternative that will be more European and less global.
If you are in the US (+adjacent), expect Twitter to stay but transform.
2/
For the US, @davetroy has laid out some suggestions (which I do not fully endorse but can see going in that direction) how a Musk Twitter might look like & be used to further the interests of a very specific network and thought ecosystem.
First, kudos to the Chinese authors doing this work & a shoutout to @edwardcholmes also involved
I already flagged this Wang et al. preprint yesterday but it is worth explaining its significance to both the #origins discussion and the related pandemic #prevention discussion
One can imagine CoV genomes like colorful Lego brick walls, and recombination as taking one brick from a different virus and putting it in the wall of another; changing the color while keeping roughly the function. 3/