1/20
"Escape Velocity, or Gliding Without a Parachute?" š§µ
When I saw today's action, it reminded me of my early days "investing", mostly in crypto.
I had to start somewhere, and make every mistake humanly possible, to get where I am today.
Let's get into it...
"Escape Velocity, or Gliding Without a Parachute?" š§µ
When I saw today's action, it reminded me of my early days "investing", mostly in crypto.
I had to start somewhere, and make every mistake humanly possible, to get where I am today.
Let's get into it...
2/x
As a young Electrical Engineer, and eventually Software convert, I naturally became interested in Bitcoin, in 2011.
Occupy Wall Street flooded the media zone. I realized a lot of the terminology was greek to me.
Then I fell down the rabbit hole...#Bitcoin
As a young Electrical Engineer, and eventually Software convert, I naturally became interested in Bitcoin, in 2011.
Occupy Wall Street flooded the media zone. I realized a lot of the terminology was greek to me.
Then I fell down the rabbit hole...#Bitcoin
3/x
If you think Bitcoin is a scam, look around you and tell me what isn't these days.
Do you think that's "value" you're investing in now?
If you think Bitcoin is a scam, look around you and tell me what isn't these days.
Do you think that's "value" you're investing in now?
4/x
"Value" is what makes this this game emotional.
Treating it like a physical system that eats, drinks, breathes, and stretches...and modeling it with equations unemotionally is how I want to play the game, so $BTC is in my "must watch" category.
Here's why...
"Value" is what makes this this game emotional.
Treating it like a physical system that eats, drinks, breathes, and stretches...and modeling it with equations unemotionally is how I want to play the game, so $BTC is in my "must watch" category.
Here's why...
5/x
Bitcoin is a liquidity sponge and it trades 24/7, unlike trad markets.
This is very useful, so if you ignore my $BTC or $ETH charts, thinking they are irrelevant, I think you may be missing a lot of valuable information that relates to my liquidity thesis.
Bitcoin is a liquidity sponge and it trades 24/7, unlike trad markets.
This is very useful, so if you ignore my $BTC or $ETH charts, thinking they are irrelevant, I think you may be missing a lot of valuable information that relates to my liquidity thesis.
6/x
$BTC responds to a lot of things but the 2 biggest, especially in this illiquid near-corpse of a market are: 1. Liquidity Injections (WRESBAL/RRP) and 2. The $DXY (similar to gold, it's inversely related)
$BTC responds to a lot of things but the 2 biggest, especially in this illiquid near-corpse of a market are: 1. Liquidity Injections (WRESBAL/RRP) and 2. The $DXY (similar to gold, it's inversely related)
https://twitter.com/ka1n0s/status/1621227589091356672?s=20&t=aOR-PAK-19ouhEZ2s3qpNg
7/x
Looking at Bitcoin throughout the week I can infer liquidity levels based on where $DXY is as well.
The FOMC pump, we now know from the recent WRESBAL&RRP print being sideways, tells us the $BTC pump was due almost solely from currency shennanigans.
Looking at Bitcoin throughout the week I can infer liquidity levels based on where $DXY is as well.
The FOMC pump, we now know from the recent WRESBAL&RRP print being sideways, tells us the $BTC pump was due almost solely from currency shennanigans.
https://twitter.com/ka1n0s/status/1621316175241297920?s=20&t=aOR-PAK-19ouhEZ2s3qpNg
8/x
As I move through this process of understanding how these numbers in the matrix all relate, we have learned some things:
1. A currency swap is a powerful tool, and can create thrust in the market
2. The WRESBAL level seems "floorish", but maybe it's not magnetic like RRP
As I move through this process of understanding how these numbers in the matrix all relate, we have learned some things:
1. A currency swap is a powerful tool, and can create thrust in the market
2. The WRESBAL level seems "floorish", but maybe it's not magnetic like RRP
9/x
If liquidity stayed the same this week, then did the change in the dollar simply set off algos/strategies and start buying the dip we were all excited about, causing the $SQQQ breakout to fail?
And what about $DXY today? Pretty slick move.
If liquidity stayed the same this week, then did the change in the dollar simply set off algos/strategies and start buying the dip we were all excited about, causing the $SQQQ breakout to fail?
And what about $DXY today? Pretty slick move.
10/x
These are questions more than answers/insights right now, so if anyone has a beat on these concepts, and can provide equations or help deriving one, I'm looking to see if Bitcoin combined with DXY could potentially provide a LIVE liquidity signal
These are questions more than answers/insights right now, so if anyone has a beat on these concepts, and can provide equations or help deriving one, I'm looking to see if Bitcoin combined with DXY could potentially provide a LIVE liquidity signal
11/x
WRESBAL is ~flat this week, the dollar looks primed to reverse upside IMO, so where are we?
Have the š» won now?
Complacency is dangerous here IMO.
So what makes me think this isn't "The Big Drop"?
WRESBAL is ~flat this week, the dollar looks primed to reverse upside IMO, so where are we?
Have the š» won now?
Complacency is dangerous here IMO.
So what makes me think this isn't "The Big Drop"?
12/x
DEDO, what a champ today. What can i say, it was making me feel comfortable, as my account lost "value", because it's starting to validate patterns.
DEDO, what a champ today. What can i say, it was making me feel comfortable, as my account lost "value", because it's starting to validate patterns.
https://twitter.com/ka1n0s/status/1621197562899492864?s=20&t=aOR-PAK-19ouhEZ2s3qpNg
13/x
But notice, it did not HIT the 2nd (light blue) channel bound, and $VIX gap 3 in @VSoien's chart is still open, I believe.
But notice, it did not HIT the 2nd (light blue) channel bound, and $VIX gap 3 in @VSoien's chart is still open, I believe.
https://twitter.com/ka1n0s/status/1621187963651776512?s=20&t=aOR-PAK-19ouhEZ2s3qpNg
14/x
What about the past? DEDO shows that fakeouts at the top are very common. Double topping formations almost every time.
Should we expect this type of bounce? I think we can, and I also think a treacherous DISTRIBUTION process is likely to occur.
What about the past? DEDO shows that fakeouts at the top are very common. Double topping formations almost every time.
Should we expect this type of bounce? I think we can, and I also think a treacherous DISTRIBUTION process is likely to occur.
15/x
What about going higher? It's possible, just let DEDO be the guide. It hasn't fully moved to the light blue extreme, so why assume we're curtains all the way down from here, and be complacent?
Data is in š» favor, but there is still a lot of mania out there...
What about going higher? It's possible, just let DEDO be the guide. It hasn't fully moved to the light blue extreme, so why assume we're curtains all the way down from here, and be complacent?
Data is in š» favor, but there is still a lot of mania out there...
16/x
I know euphoria in markets, I've felt it as a crypto bull many times.
It's a hell of an addiction, so I can't take lightly just how high what might seem like GARBAGE can go in "value".
I know euphoria in markets, I've felt it as a crypto bull many times.
It's a hell of an addiction, so I can't take lightly just how high what might seem like GARBAGE can go in "value".
https://twitter.com/ka1n0s/status/1621179140652281856?s=20&t=aOR-PAK-19ouhEZ2s3qpNg
17/x
The question is was today the high? Are we going down from here? Probably at least tomorrow morning, yes. But look at all the confluent lines we have going on here.
They could act as strong support levels.
The question is was today the high? Are we going down from here? Probably at least tomorrow morning, yes. But look at all the confluent lines we have going on here.
They could act as strong support levels.
https://twitter.com/ka1n0s/status/1621325709632499712?s=20&t=aOR-PAK-19ouhEZ2s3qpNg
18/x
My plan tomorrow is to stay vigilant, watch $DXY, watch $BTC, watch $SPY, and of course $QQQ and $SQQQ for signs of rhythm. Are we going to distribute before crashing? Crash and bounce, like in the DASH top?
Sweet wick bro!
My plan tomorrow is to stay vigilant, watch $DXY, watch $BTC, watch $SPY, and of course $QQQ and $SQQQ for signs of rhythm. Are we going to distribute before crashing? Crash and bounce, like in the DASH top?
Sweet wick bro!
19/x
Please hit me up with ideas
I'd like to develop a plan to get a better cost basis on a bounce, but I'm worried I'll screw it up.
Distribution is designed to eat traders alive.
It looks like we'll gap ā¬ tomorrow, so congrats to anyone who hit my levels today, but...
Please hit me up with ideas
I'd like to develop a plan to get a better cost basis on a bounce, but I'm worried I'll screw it up.
Distribution is designed to eat traders alive.
It looks like we'll gap ā¬ tomorrow, so congrats to anyone who hit my levels today, but...
20/20
I'm careful here. The game is a tricky one.
Say prices go down to support, the euphoria hasn't worn off, and Cramer says BTFD?
Sweaty, itchy FOMO ridden bulltards will stampede again, I'm sure.
Do they have gas in the tank?
More rugs we don't understand yet?
I'm careful here. The game is a tricky one.
Say prices go down to support, the euphoria hasn't worn off, and Cramer says BTFD?
Sweaty, itchy FOMO ridden bulltards will stampede again, I'm sure.
Do they have gas in the tank?
More rugs we don't understand yet?
ā¢ ā¢ ā¢
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