The game of extracting cents and why behavioral analysis matters:

#smallcaps #trading

Thread
1.
Because the ranges are often limited the RR is tied and limited too. The weaker the cent range the less RR by default. If you try to place two, three, four+ trades on single ticker that impacts you. If you take only single big swing trade it doesn't.

2.
Many traders try to extract multiple separate trades from the movements of single ticker. This exposes you to behaviors. The weaker your read is the more you are impacted over long run negatively. Low RR trades and weak read leads to difficulty.

3.
To avoid this some trade to extract only one trade out of ticker.They know their behavior read is not good enough so they compromise. Scale in going for one trade. This brings whole different can of worms with it, but that's not the focus of this thread. Back to multi-trades.

4.
Extracting higher RR trades from weak volatility requires you to figure out somewhat decently where local tops and bottoms will be. Forget about that "nobody can time the market" phrase. If you play this way you will have to develop read on it.

5.
I think this is where roads split for many. They are unaware just how much this is true. How important read on tickers is over long run. It is dismissed because it seems to be too challenging task to figure out behavioral patterns at least somewhat good. And it is.

6.
This is why strong cycles and ignitions cause so much damage along with neutral cycles that chop traders in range bound 0 volatility tickers. The issues all have the same center. All roads lead to Rome. Recognition of behavior change.

7.
Every trader should have goal to figure out behavior, study price action, performances of tickers on weekly basis, disconnects of past behaviors. Keep in mind it's all about details. The differences aren't night and day. Plus minus 30% is average no more.

8.
This route is required if you try to short local top, cover local bottom and repeat this trade three times on same ticker. Regardless of what you think your ability to read behavior and orderflow will play major role long term. Large chunk of traders try to go this route.

9.
All easy info out there won't get you much read on behavior (finviz stuff f example). Behavior is in themes, repetitions, basically research you have to do by yourself as there is no good content online about it for smallcaps. Not precise one at least.

10.
To return to primary point: weak cent range tickers (often cheaper). If your behavior skills are weak, do not trade those.
Focus on higher volatile (5 bucks-ish) tickers as they provide more volatility and RR control.

11.
But at the same time super high volatile (10 bucks plus) have their own trap speciality: Traders often tend to oversize them by not being careful. High volatility and low read on behavior combined with too much size=troubles. So both extremes have their own problems.

12.
Either way figuring out behavioral similarities and patterns is something that in smallcap trading you do need for long term stay if extracting multiple trades from single ticker is your goal.

13.

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More from @TradetheMatrix1

Feb 3
Good question from fellow trader:
"As you gain more experience how are you avoiding overcomplicating things?"

Short answer: constant displacement.

#trading
Thread:
1.
My aim over years has been to always seek for more efficient behavioral analysis tools and approaches that improve upon prior ones used. This means constant research on what to improve and optimize. Adding some improvement to watchlisting/planning/expectation weekly.

2.
Displace. Old methods are refined and improved or somethimes completely thrown out due to weak efficiency. That's ok. We all make mistakes by falling into perception some tools are much more accurate than they turn out to be half year later.

Key is:Don't just add. Displace.

3.
Read 7 tweets
Feb 2
Some say recession won't come because too many see it ahead which is not normal.

Being contrarian is a skill, it requires careful calibration, let's break down some reasons why recession will likely come and dismissing it is not "black sheep" thinking at all:

1.
Recessions aren't signaled ahead, but depressions can be. This is what many are missing, we won't go into recession but more likely global depression crisis. Those come slowly and creep upon unlike recessions which strike fast. Recessions are more common unlike depressions.

2.
All past modern crisis events were recessions and therefore unexpected. Many use past two examples to build their whole reasoning on why we won't see crisis "because too many see it ahead". They are missing the fact that we are repeating older cycle from 30s and not 2008.

3.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 12
Shorting stuffed moves requires anticipation. For example ydays short on $BWEN 10:55, you need to focus on painted ranges (rigged) and be ready on what you need to see on tape to extract edge out of play like that (high tape velocity surge).
#smallcaps
1.
This brings us to another point, the edge in tape:
-its not the size
-its velocity changes
Strong changes in velocity for few minutes reveal large participant agenda. Size of one big order does not reveal consistency or aggression persistence. It can easily be a spoof.

2.
Single order can always be a spoof, velocity change cannot be spoofed. Hard data priority. Another reason why you should always pay more attention to speed changes and absorbing rather than what sits on bid or ask.

3.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 12
$BIOR fails to do HOD clearout
$BWEN completes HOD clearout

Same type1 setup, different delivery. Recognizing the pattern is only first small step, edge extraction goes far beyond just pattern recognition and it's why it's a multi-year process often:
#smallcaps #trading

1.
In smallcaps more than other markets you often have smaller ranges present which makes it more difficult on edge because the max RR is more capped. Details on how you execute setups start to matter a lot more because of that. This is absolutely key to understand.

2.
Figuring out through details which setup is bit more likely to fail vs the other matters because of low ranges. 5-10% add on failure recognition might matter over long run. It doesn't matter on high time frame setups where liquidity and range is great, but intraday...yes.

3.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 10
We live in era where everything is starting to get streamed. Most of the rigging is still done typically in secrecy. Over past 5 years it has been great learning experiment watching live stream process of actual rigging process performed from S. Bannon on macro side.

Why:
1.
To this point i have not seen any other known-by-name "heavy weight and still legal" who comes close to carrying the process so obviously and in the open. Its much quicker to learn about rigged stuff when its done from individual rather than just process (no-name) basis.

2.
Using Chief strategists of administrations for major powers to puppet master the presidents or whole cabinets is nothing new, has been done historically many times. But it is uncommon to see it done for public eye, if you know where to look. Podcasts, speeches, streams, etc.

3.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 17, 2022
Most #smallcaps do not reverse split after being recent multiday runners. Typical R/S goes like BIMI, nothing going on month prior to the split. $COSM had a lot of swing carry positions at the tail end of multiday runner adjusted into split. Exploration opp for MMs.

1.
Whether there really was failure to adjust the split correctly before market open or it was done intentionally it doesnt matter. Due to selling restrictions by many, the supply was limited. It created purer fresh squeeze agenda, and less overhead participation.

2.
Restrictions on selling by many brokers added to the fact that float was more "pure" and untouched. Overhead reduced. Whoever decided to corner the float had less overhead selling presence, easier to market-make and drive out fresh shorts on SSR also.

3.
Read 4 tweets

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