Thread by @BambroughKevin

Booking to do an interview with @leadlagreport later this month. Excited as hell to talk about both #molybdenum and #uranium and the joys of hunting where brokers refuse to pay analysts to look

With #molybdenum hitting all time high yesterday I’m excited to see it break and where it ends up running to. Reports keep coming in that there is nearly no stock piles to be had and it’s about to really get crazy. EU industries depend on this ingredient for their steel industry

Inflation adjusting the all time high probably targets a run to $53/lb

And like all other metals… the macro for molybdenum is more bullish this cycle than last.

Very few pure plays other…

I find it interesting to look back to Neo Lithiums take over Oct 21, 2021

Was taken out ~$1bln by Zijin Mining of China

You can see the incredible run it had from sun $1 to a take out @ $6.50

The price of lithium had a big run up to that time but not the crazy move that followed. So the take over was negotiated with lithium priced around $17k a tonne

Feasibility study was forecasting prices near that $17k a tonne in 2024 and then dropping off so again at the take out time the price deck wasn’t that far off the spot pricing.

NeoLithium pre-feas of showed around ~$1.1 to ~$1.2bln npv8 using the assumptions shown above that I got from their press release associated with the feasibility study

I find it very instructive that NeoLithium got taking out for between 80-90% of its NPV8 mostly because Lithium was in short supply and it became viewed as strategic to have guaranteed supply for the battery industry.

I’ve been chirping on twitter about the economics and huge tax revenue potential of Greenland resources as I believe it’s now so ridiculously important for the nations tax revenue that the project has to be virtually a lock. I can’t imagine a better looking Social Impact study

With spot prices it can increase gdp by ~17%. Will be the biggest tax payer by a mile and the numbers are mind boggling. All told it with knock on effects it will add a tax contribution equal to about 30-40% of the nations current income tax revenue.

NPV8 at spot prices of $40/lb is so ridiculous ~$4bln vs market cap of around $120mln or 3% leaves so much upside anyway ya slice it.

Even if your a huge #molybdenum bear you have to come up with a npv8 in the $2bln range. And to be perfectly honestly I’d be happy with $1bln

That will get us far along the road to $10/sh. But again. Be a bear and assume more dilution on the road… executing like NeoLithium could see us have a run from ~$1 range it’s been in of late up to the $3’s. then a take out at $6.50. And this can happen in the span of 1 year

Assuming permits are successfully completed this year I see it trading as outlined. I personally prefer to see companies like this sell it a major after doing all the ‘easy’ work and let the major take on the mine development risk as they have unparalleled experience and…

The balance sheet to handle any hiccups that typically occur along the road. As an early stage resource investor, my experience is that we are best rewarded by buying an asset cheap, and simply unlocking its full potential, by completing engineering and permitting work

Then shopping the company by getting as many big players in the data room as possible. In this case, I’d be focused on getting the big miners to have a look along with the big steel producers. Compete North Americans, against EU and China

ERMA supported EU companies will definitely be the most desperate / natural buyer and will absolutely not want to see the production and pricing set by Chinese companies that already have a huge influence on the price. Conversely….

CMOC Group would love to own the asset if it could. Approaching them soon for a strategic investment (at a premium) would be a great way to create deal tension and help extract max dollars from EU companies during a future sale process.

Feb 20th tentative date fyi