Thread by @SwedishRumble

(1/25) Things are looking good for ETH’s crew in the standings, but the remaining schedule is grueling, and many points can be lost in a hurry if the injury bug strikes. In this T, we look at the state of the team under the FFP – if #MUFC finish outside the top 4.

(2/25) For a background to the rules applied, the method behind my forecasts etc, see this thread:

https://twitter.com/SwedishRumble/status/1620521960622153729?s=20&t=yijfhmqhnAUhhmYPqfq7wg

(3/25) With the assumptions and adjustments referred to in the thread linked in the above tweet, but with a EL finish rather than a top 4 spot, we get the following forecasted performance by #MUFC under the #FootballEarningsRule:

(4/25) This is under the assumption that no player is sold next summer, and we all know some players will be sold. At the same time, the club has not been very good at being able to sell players in the past.

(5/25) But if we assume that Henderson, Maguire/Lindelof and McTominay are sold for £60m, it improves our Football Earnings with £62m. That would give us the ability to incur an additional £30m of costs next summer under the FER.

(6/25) What does £30m of additional yearly costs buy #MUFC? The yearly cost of Antony is £26.8m. So about an Antony could be bought. But that does not tell the full story. Let us get back to that, after having looked at the Squad Cost Rule.

(7/25) Under the Squad Cost Rule, there is more room:

(8/25) In summary, we can see that even with a new owner making funds available for ETH – we could not spend a lot without breaching the FFP. But that in itself is irrelevant information – if we don’t look at what happen if we breach FFP.

(9/25) But before doing that, there could of course be ways for a new owner to increase our income or decrease our costs. That is covered in the below thread. The following is under the assumption that we get a new owner that can’t sponsor us etc.

https://twitter.com/SwedishRumble/status/1618612684639043585?s=20&t=5-eU4Dh8Kwo3ZoZ-E8e11Q

(10/25) So one alternative is to comply with the rules and only sign one player costing about as much as Antony. The other alternative we will look at, is if we do what Boehly is doing right now – and spend a huge spend in lieu of potentially breaching the FFP.

(11/25) Under the assumption that we sign three players 300m who making 300k a week on 5 year deals, it results in additional yearly costs of £60m (amortization) + £45m (wages) = £105m.

(12/25) Under the Football Earnings Rule, we would get the following results (including the sale of Maguire, McTominay and Henderson), i.e. we would breach the accepted deviance with app. 120m when reviewed in the summer of 2024.

(13/25) Would we not also be in breach in the summer of 2023? As I understand it, none of the Stability Requirements apply in the summer of 2023, see below the transitional provision.

(14/25) In 2024, UEFA would require that we would enter into a Settlement Agreement (the “SA”). The SA would include roughly the below provisions (from Juventus SA last season, so +2 to all years).

(15/25) I.e, in 2028, our Aggregate Football Earnings for 25/26, 26/27 and 27/28 can only be minus €60m. As a starting point, (counting on CL for 24/25), we would be minus 70m. To get to minus 20m on avg over 3 years, in a straight line, we have to follow the below progression:

(16/25) There are two ways to improve our earnings with 25m per season. Either we cut down on wages, or we start to sell players better than we have. Like City or CFC are doing. That should come under ETH by itself.

(17/25) In addition we would be fined 10-15m. The fine impacts our earnings in 26’, so the savings must be an additional 3-5m per year.

(18/25) We would also breach the Squad Cost Rule, but not by a massive amount:

(19/25) Our breach would be 4% or £27.4m. This would result in a fine – established in accordance with the below – of app. £4.8m.

(20/25) So what does it mean that we have to improve our Earnings with about 25+5+5=£35m per season over 3 years? Not much form my POV. At least 15m of those should come from organic growth (inflation).

(21/25) In addition, wages and amortization comes of the book yearly. In the summer of 2024, we save 12m on Telles and Bailly alone. But would we have to go 3 years in a row without spending a lot in the transfer market?

(22/25) No, just from the money coming of the books, we would have app. a 100m transfer budget alone. And looking at teams around us like CFC and City, they make a profit on player sales of 50-60m annually.

(23/25) If we could do that, we could keep spending up towards 200m per season.

(24/25) So if we get a new owner and miss top 4, my advice would definitely be to spend about 400m on new players in the summer of 2023 even if we miss CL. Yes, it would mean that we breach “FFP” and that we have to cut costs.

(25/25) But it should mean that we should make the CL in 24/25 and the sanctions and cost saving requirements that would be imposed on us would not be too severe.

I do not have the biggest Twitter following, so if you liked this thread, please retweet and follow if you want more. Many new threads coming up in the near future.