(1/22) The below thread includes a summary of Premier League’s accusations against #MCFC. In this thread, we look at the substance of the accusations to the extent they are known and speculate on what they could mean.
(2/22) In short, #MCFC is alleged to have breached the rules in 5 different ways. The details of the accusations and evidence of them has not been announced. But we can still speculate on what is behind them.
(3/22) In the first (1) instance, #MCFC is accused of not providing “accurate financial information” to the Premier League – “in particular with respect to its revenue (including sponsorship revenue)” between 2009 and 2018. Much of #MCFC’s revenue stems from sponsorships.
(4/22) First, lets look at the parties. MCFC’s majority owner is Abu Dhabi United Group (“ADUG”), a investment vehicle of Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed (HHSM). HHSM is the Deputy Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates (of which Abu Dhabi is a constituent emirate).
(5/22) Emirates Telecommunications (“Etisalat”) and Etihad Airways (“Etihad”) are each multinational corporations headquartered in Abu Dhabi. Etisalat and Etihad are large sponsors of MCFC. Under the PL Rules a club may only report …
(6/22) …income from Associated Party Transactions (“APT”) at a Fair Market Value (“FMV”). MCFC has towards UEFA argued that ADUG, Etisalat and Etihad are – not – Related Parties. Even if they are not ATPs, a transaction structure could be created to…
(7/22) …to circumvent the PL rules, which also would be a breach. The UEFA Panel touch upon this in its review of MCFC (see below). So what evidence might exist of this breach?
(8/22) It can be assumed that most evidence would stem from the excellent “Football Leaks” movement. In the view of UEFA, the emails made public by the leak provided “compelling evidence” that the sponsor payments received from Etisalat were…
(9/22)…“made or caused to be made by ADUG but attributed to…Etisalat”; and that the sponsorship payments received from Etihad were “funded or procured to be funded by or on behalf of ADUG, but paid through Etihad”.
(10/22) As summarized by the excellent @LegalManFC, this lead to the UEFA body coming to the below conclusions (later partly over-turned by CAS), i.e. that MCFC had:
(11/22) The UEFA rules do not include a ‘catch-all’ provision or expressly ban circumvention of the rules. The PL Rules does. Even if it cannot be proven that the sponsor payments exceeded market value, the construction could violate the below rule:
(12/22) Overall, it will be a very tough case for MCFC to clear itself from this allegation in view of the more broad PL rules. Over to the next allegation.
(13/22) During 2009 to 2016, MCFC is accused of not including “full details” of “remuneration” paid to players and/or their manager. What do we know about this? According to @DerSpiegel’s report on the leaked emails…
(14/22)…it appears that Roberto Mancini (manager between 2009-2013), received secret payments through a shadow contract via a consultancy arrangement with the Abu Dhabi-based club Al Jazira. It is damning when your manager is paid £1.45m by the club…
(15/22)…and then gets paid £1.75m by a 3rd party, which it its turn is paid the same amount by the owner of the club. In addition, Der Spiegel alleged that ADUG also paid at least £3.5 million to Yaya Touré’s agent between 2010 and 2015…
(17/22) The 3rd breach accuses #MCFC to have breached the PL rules for not complying with UEFA regulation. The CAS found MCFC to breach the UEFA rules by withholding inter alia the following evidence:
(18/22) The 4th point accuses #MCFC to not have complied with – the PL, i.e. not UEFA’s – Financial Sustainability rules during 2015-2018. UEFA initially imposed a ban on City from European competitions for two seasons for “overstating its sponsorship revenue…
(19/22)…in its accounts and in the break-even information submitted to UEFA between 2012 and 2016”. The PL accusation covers a shorter period, but surely overlaps some with the basis for the UEFA decision (later overturned by CAS).
(20/22) Again, much of the accusation against MCFC regards giving misleading information. It is important to note that the fourth accusation against MCFC regards an actual breach of the FFP rules, i.e. for example on the basis of…
(21/22)…sponsorships being contributions or recorded at a value exceeding the market value if made by an associated party. This will of course be harder to prove, than proving that information was just “misleading” or meant to circumvent rules.
(22/22) On the 5th point, I have nothing to add since it is a new accusation and covers a period up until today. Lets revert to that when we get more information.
BTW, I do not have the biggest twitter following, if you like this thread, please smash a like and retweet it! 😃
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💣🚨(1/15) The Premier League has issued a statement that it has referred a number of alleged breaches of the Premier League Rules by Pep Guardiola’s #MCFC to a Commission. In this 🧵, we cover what this means and what the implications could be. premierleague.com/news/3045970
(2/15) #MCFC is alleged to have breached the PL Rulebook in no less than – five – ways. These allegations require a thorough analysis, but this is Twitter, lets try the super-fast version of it.
(3/15) What rule has #MCFC allegedly broken? The PL rulebook includes a provision stating that clubs cannot make false statements to UEFA when reviewed in light of FFP rules. Currently, its in J.7, previously it was J.8, unless I am mistaken.
(1/19) The Daily Mail analyze the Glazers’ sale of #MUFC with the help of Kieran Maguire. In this review, special focus is put on the stock market’s valuation of the Club (£3bn) which is deemed to indicate that it will be difficult for the Glazers to obtain bids over 4bn.
(2/19) I am a strong believer in that the ‘market never lies’ – or at least value assets better than anyone else – but for a couple of reasons, the picture painted by the Daily Mail is incomplete. Let us look at why, in this 🧵.
(3/19) First of all, what are we talking about here? #MUFC The club has 54,537,360 Class A shares (1 votes/share), and 110,207,613 Class B shares (10 vote/share, owned by the Glazers). Of the Class A shares, 1,682,896 are held in treasury (owned by the club itself).
(1/12) A big problem with VAR is the lack of consistency. VAR takes a long look at the below "throat grab", resulting in Maupay dropping to the ground having problems breathing, but decides to not intervene. Why? In this 🧵, we try to make sense of it. (dailymail.co.uk/sport/football…).
(2/12) Arguing that VAR handled the brawl yesterday objectively, is impossible. Right behind Casemiro, you have Ayew throwing punches with much more force, at the throat of Fred, which the VAR room has no objection against.
(1/25) Things are looking good for ETH’s crew in the standings, but the remaining schedule is grueling, and many points can be lost in a hurry if the injury bug strikes. In this T, we look at the state of the team under the FFP – if #MUFC finish outside the top 4.
(2/25) For a background to the rules applied, the method behind my forecasts etc, see this thread:
(3/25) With the assumptions and adjustments referred to in the thread linked in the above tweet, but with a EL finish rather than a top 4 spot, we get the following forecasted performance by #MUFC under the #FootballEarningsRule:
@SwissRamble Thanks for all the great work! I am a big fan. One question, I have seen you apply a Break-even/Football Earning rule for the 23/24 season (the Chelsea FFP break-down for example). But as far as I can tell, there is a gap between these two rules for the 2023 review.
The break-even provision only apply by reference for 22/23 and for the 23/24 season, the Football Earnings Rule clearly does not apply. Do you have any other information? From my POV, this order surprises me a lot and since the Squad Cost Rule only is measured per 31 December ...
...2023 (at 90%) a club in breach of the rules will go a very long time between reviews. But, the more I look at it, the more it seems like this is the intention. Naturally, with the first application of the Football Earnings Rule in the summer of 2024, covering the 22/23 and ...
(1/16) In this 🧵 we cover how much #LiverpoolFC will be able to spend in the summer window of 2023 under the #FFP regulation if the club finish – outside – the top 4. Could the club still afford to spend £150m on Jude Bellingham? #LFC
(2/16) I mark the quality of my forecast on a scale from 1-10 depending on available information. In this case, the mark is a generous 2, since LFC (Liverpool Football Club and Athletic Grounds Limited) has not published its annual accounts for 21/22 yet.
(3/16) As of 2022, the new Football Sustainability Regulation replaces the Financial Fair Play rules. The main rules #LFC must comply with in the new FSR are the #FootballEarningsRule (“FER”) and the #SquadCostRule (“SCR”). Let’s first look at the FER.