Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Ray Powell Profile picture
@GordianKnotRay
Feb 6, 2023 • 8 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
1/The preponderance of the evidence suggests that on 6 Feb #China Coast Guard ship 5205 stopped, harassed and followed #Philippines Coast Guard BRP Malapascua near Sabina Shoal for 8+ hours, preventing it from returning to Palawan. Let me explain my reasoning. [Thread 1/7]
2/BRP Malapascua (@coastguardph MRRV-4403) left Pag-Asa (Thitu) Island moving SE on 5 Feb/0930 PHT after anchoring overnight. Its companion for that night, BRP Teresa Magbanua (MRRV-9701), would move off to the NE 14 hours later. [2/7]
3/BRP Malapascua seemed headed to Palawan, but 3 hours after it left Pag-Asa CCG 5205 (marked "Unknown") left Mischief Reef moving west, came to a stop right across Malapascua's path & then at 1940L went "dark" (stopped transmitting its Automatic Identification System/AIS) [3/7]
4/Late that night at 06/0120L, east of Sabina Shoal BRP Malapascua turned sharply to port and slowed to 1 knot. It would remain essentially stopped for the next 11 hours. CCG 5205 remained dark on AIS for this entire period. [4/7]
5/Finally, just after noon BRP Malapascua got back underway but on a new course, this time due west. After slowing & taking a brief detour to the south, it again moved west toward Ayungin (2nd Thomas) Shoal, near where another China Coast Guard ship (5304) was on patrol. [5/7]
6/Just after midnight 7 Feb CCG 5205 at last reappeared back near Mischief Reef after Malapascua was well away to the north. (Notes: 5205 is marked "Unknown" but can be ID'd by its MMSI 512005205; the dashed line indicates when its AIS was off & its exact position unknown.) [6/7]
7/Until CCG 5205 reappeared at Mischief Reef I hesitated to voice my theory directly. Now I think the preponderance of evidence I have suggests it had a protracted confrontation with BRP Malapascua, which looks to be rejoining BRP Teresa Magbanua north of Jackson Atoll. [7/7 END]
Addendum: The time between when BRP Malapascua first turned and stopped near Sabina Shoal (0120L) to when it turned away from Ayungin (2nd Thomas) Shoal (1920L) was ~18 hours. Upon reflection it seems probable CCG 5205 remained in close contact for that entire period.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Ray Powell

Ray Powell Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @GordianKnotRay

Ray Powell Profile picture
Apr 7
🚨NOW WE KNOW🚨
Q: Why was 🇨🇳#China's deep-sea research ship Tan Suo Yi Hao traversing 🇦🇺#Australia's southern coast? This route clearly was not the most direct back to its home port of Sanya--it obviously had another objective.
A: The Diamantina Trench. I'll explain...🧵1/10👇Image
Concern about 🇨🇳#China's research ships is well founded, with strong evidence they act as dual-use intelligence collection platforms for the 🇨🇳#PLA.
Ex: the Song Hang's oddly meandering route through the 🇵🇭#Philippines' archipelago last week. 👇 🧵2/10
inquirer.net/434714/chinese…
However, the 🇨🇳Tan Suo Yi Hao's route didn't veer north toward 🇦🇺#Australia's southern coast, but kept mostly outside its 200nm exclusive economic zone after it passed through the Bass Strait (north of Tasmania). Nor did it loiter to conduct detailed survey ops...until... 🧵3/10Image
Read 10 tweets
Ray Powell Profile picture
Mar 22
"What are these ships doing? We don't know" said @mercoglianos on dark fleets for @IndoPacPodcast (below). Meanwhile 2 mystery cargo ships have loitered by 🇹🇼#Taiwan's Penghu Islands for months--*not* carrying cargo anywhere. What do we know about these suspicious ships? [🧵1/5]Image
First, @mercoglianos's point about dark fleets' risk to subsea cables is highly relevant to these mystery ships' activity, since 🇹🇼#Taiwan's Penghu Islands were a recent target of cable sabotage & also connect the Kinmen Islands to the main island. [🧵2/5]Image
The loitering 🇨🇳#China-flagged ship has visited 4 eastern 🇹🇼Penghu harbors since 1st appearing 10 June--often arriving/departing at night & usually very briefly. Most of its ops since then have been "dark" () & its AIS has almost no ID'ing info. [🧵3/5]sealight.live/posts/gray-zon…Image
Image
Read 6 tweets
Ray Powell Profile picture
Mar 6
1/Another suspicious ship loitering off 🇹🇼#Taiwan's SW coast is the 🇨🇲#Cameroon-flagged Da Li. Like others we've tracked (some of which have been involved in subsea cable sabotage), this is a "cargo" ship that clearly doesn't transport cargo. So what exactly is it doing? [🧵1/8]Image
2/The Da Li is registered to 🇰🇭#Cambodia company "PHEAR S", which owns/operates only this one ship. In other words, if PHEAR S is a cargo shipping company, its only vessel does not ship cargo. [🧵2/8]Image
Image
3/Since arriving in Jan 2024 the Da Li has spent most of its time off 🇹🇼#Taiwan's SW coast, but starting in June 2024 it began taking trips into the #SouthChinaSea--especially around 🇹🇼Taiwan's Pratas Island & in the 🇵🇭#Philippines' exclusive economic zone. [🧵3/8]Image
Read 8 tweets
Ray Powell Profile picture
Feb 6
1/Suspicious ship update: Just 1 month after the 🇹🇼#Taiwan Coast Guard reported driving away 🇲🇳#Mongolia-flagged, 🇭🇰#HongKong-registered Bao Shun from around its subsea cables, the ship is again loitering off Taiwan's coast, now near Qimei Island. So what is this ship? [🧵1/10]Image
2/As reported by @keverington in @TaiwanNewsEN, on 6 Jan the Bao Shun "was spotted taking an erratic course in the same area of subsea cables, sparking further national security concerns after a 🇨🇳Chinese ship allegedly damaged a subsea cable." [🧵2/10]
3/@keverington, citing @VesselFinder, further reported that the ship "was built in 2005 when it was a 🇨🇳Chinese-flagged ship under the Mandarin name Shun Tai 188 and has subsequently had three other Mandarin names." [🧵3/10]Image
Read 10 tweets
Ray Powell Profile picture
Jan 13
🚨🤔Why has the cargo vessel VASILIY SHUKSHIN been aimlessly criss-crossing the area near 🇹🇼#Taiwan's Fangshan cable landing station () for 3+ weeks⁉️👀
Some curious facts about this ship in the thread below. [🧵1/6] @submarinecablemap.com/landing-point/…Image
The VASILIY SHUKSHIN left 🇷🇺#Russia's Vostochnyy port 8 Dec, stopped briefly in 🇰🇷#SouthKorea & then began trolling off 🇹🇼#Taiwan's SW coast on 19 Dec. According to self-reporting it was to have reached Qui Nhon 🇻🇳#Vietnam on 27 Dec.
It's still off Fangshan. [🧵2/6]Image
VASILIY SHUKSHIN carries a "flag of convenience" from🇧🇿#Belize, which has "earned a reputation for accepting ships that more reputable registries wouldn't consider -- ships that are older, are in bad repair or have histories of mismanagement." () [🧵3/6]pbs.org/frontlineworld…
Read 6 tweets
Ray Powell Profile picture
Aug 18, 2024
1/🚨Flashpoint Sabina Shoal: 🇨🇳PRC ships now deploying south of Sabina Shoal this past 6 hours.
Over past week #China has been messaging intent to aggressively contest any 🇵🇭#Philippines missions to Sabina, where the BRP Teresa Magbanua has been posted since mid-April. [🧵1/x]Image
2/While no 🇵🇭#Philippines ships are openly broadcasting on AIS () approaching Sabina Shoal, 🇨🇳#China's deployments are clearly intended to cut off approaches from/via the 🇵🇭@coastguardph's base at Buliluyan Port at the southern tip of Palawan. [🧵2/x] sealight.live/posts/what-is-…
Image
3/Last week, 🇨🇳#China's spokespeople & propaganda outlets repeatedly telegraphed 🇨🇳's intent to oppose any attempt by 🇵🇭#Philippines to replace or extend the BRP Teresa Magbanua's stay at Sabina Shoal, which it calls "Xianbin Jiao" and now claims as its "territory". [🧵3/x]Image
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(