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Ray Powell Profile picture
@GordianKnotRay
Feb 6, 2023 • 8 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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1/The preponderance of the evidence suggests that on 6 Feb #China Coast Guard ship 5205 stopped, harassed and followed #Philippines Coast Guard BRP Malapascua near Sabina Shoal for 8+ hours, preventing it from returning to Palawan. Let me explain my reasoning. [Thread 1/7]
2/BRP Malapascua (@coastguardph MRRV-4403) left Pag-Asa (Thitu) Island moving SE on 5 Feb/0930 PHT after anchoring overnight. Its companion for that night, BRP Teresa Magbanua (MRRV-9701), would move off to the NE 14 hours later. [2/7]
3/BRP Malapascua seemed headed to Palawan, but 3 hours after it left Pag-Asa CCG 5205 (marked "Unknown") left Mischief Reef moving west, came to a stop right across Malapascua's path & then at 1940L went "dark" (stopped transmitting its Automatic Identification System/AIS) [3/7]
4/Late that night at 06/0120L, east of Sabina Shoal BRP Malapascua turned sharply to port and slowed to 1 knot. It would remain essentially stopped for the next 11 hours. CCG 5205 remained dark on AIS for this entire period. [4/7]
5/Finally, just after noon BRP Malapascua got back underway but on a new course, this time due west. After slowing & taking a brief detour to the south, it again moved west toward Ayungin (2nd Thomas) Shoal, near where another China Coast Guard ship (5304) was on patrol. [5/7]
6/Just after midnight 7 Feb CCG 5205 at last reappeared back near Mischief Reef after Malapascua was well away to the north. (Notes: 5205 is marked "Unknown" but can be ID'd by its MMSI 512005205; the dashed line indicates when its AIS was off & its exact position unknown.) [6/7]
7/Until CCG 5205 reappeared at Mischief Reef I hesitated to voice my theory directly. Now I think the preponderance of evidence I have suggests it had a protracted confrontation with BRP Malapascua, which looks to be rejoining BRP Teresa Magbanua north of Jackson Atoll. [7/7 END]
Addendum: The time between when BRP Malapascua first turned and stopped near Sabina Shoal (0120L) to when it turned away from Ayungin (2nd Thomas) Shoal (1920L) was ~18 hours. Upon reflection it seems probable CCG 5205 remained in close contact for that entire period.

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More from @GordianKnotRay

Ray Powell Profile picture
Mar 6
1/Another suspicious ship loitering off 🇹🇼#Taiwan's SW coast is the 🇨🇲#Cameroon-flagged Da Li. Like others we've tracked (some of which have been involved in subsea cable sabotage), this is a "cargo" ship that clearly doesn't transport cargo. So what exactly is it doing? [🧵1/8]Image
2/The Da Li is registered to 🇰🇭#Cambodia company "PHEAR S", which owns/operates only this one ship. In other words, if PHEAR S is a cargo shipping company, its only vessel does not ship cargo. [🧵2/8]Image
Image
3/Since arriving in Jan 2024 the Da Li has spent most of its time off 🇹🇼#Taiwan's SW coast, but starting in June 2024 it began taking trips into the #SouthChinaSea--especially around 🇹🇼Taiwan's Pratas Island & in the 🇵🇭#Philippines' exclusive economic zone. [🧵3/8]Image
Read 8 tweets
Ray Powell Profile picture
Feb 6
1/Suspicious ship update: Just 1 month after the 🇹🇼#Taiwan Coast Guard reported driving away 🇲🇳#Mongolia-flagged, 🇭🇰#HongKong-registered Bao Shun from around its subsea cables, the ship is again loitering off Taiwan's coast, now near Qimei Island. So what is this ship? [🧵1/10]Image
2/As reported by @keverington in @TaiwanNewsEN, on 6 Jan the Bao Shun "was spotted taking an erratic course in the same area of subsea cables, sparking further national security concerns after a 🇨🇳Chinese ship allegedly damaged a subsea cable." [🧵2/10]
3/@keverington, citing @VesselFinder, further reported that the ship "was built in 2005 when it was a 🇨🇳Chinese-flagged ship under the Mandarin name Shun Tai 188 and has subsequently had three other Mandarin names." [🧵3/10]Image
Read 10 tweets
Ray Powell Profile picture
Jan 13
🚨🤔Why has the cargo vessel VASILIY SHUKSHIN been aimlessly criss-crossing the area near 🇹🇼#Taiwan's Fangshan cable landing station () for 3+ weeks⁉️👀
Some curious facts about this ship in the thread below. [🧵1/6] @submarinecablemap.com/landing-point/…Image
The VASILIY SHUKSHIN left 🇷🇺#Russia's Vostochnyy port 8 Dec, stopped briefly in 🇰🇷#SouthKorea & then began trolling off 🇹🇼#Taiwan's SW coast on 19 Dec. According to self-reporting it was to have reached Qui Nhon 🇻🇳#Vietnam on 27 Dec.
It's still off Fangshan. [🧵2/6]Image
VASILIY SHUKSHIN carries a "flag of convenience" from🇧🇿#Belize, which has "earned a reputation for accepting ships that more reputable registries wouldn't consider -- ships that are older, are in bad repair or have histories of mismanagement." () [🧵3/6]pbs.org/frontlineworld…
Read 6 tweets
Ray Powell Profile picture
Aug 18, 2024
1/🚨Flashpoint Sabina Shoal: 🇨🇳PRC ships now deploying south of Sabina Shoal this past 6 hours.
Over past week #China has been messaging intent to aggressively contest any 🇵🇭#Philippines missions to Sabina, where the BRP Teresa Magbanua has been posted since mid-April. [🧵1/x]Image
2/While no 🇵🇭#Philippines ships are openly broadcasting on AIS () approaching Sabina Shoal, 🇨🇳#China's deployments are clearly intended to cut off approaches from/via the 🇵🇭@coastguardph's base at Buliluyan Port at the southern tip of Palawan. [🧵2/x] sealight.live/posts/what-is-…
Image
3/Last week, 🇨🇳#China's spokespeople & propaganda outlets repeatedly telegraphed 🇨🇳's intent to oppose any attempt by 🇵🇭#Philippines to replace or extend the BRP Teresa Magbanua's stay at Sabina Shoal, which it calls "Xianbin Jiao" and now claims as its "territory". [🧵3/x]Image
Read 6 tweets
Ray Powell Profile picture
Aug 11, 2024
1/🇨🇳"The Monster" has likely been replaced at 🇵🇭Sabina Shoal. On 11 August, 🇨🇳#China Coast Guard 5303 arrived at Sabina Shoal & is now stationed opposite 🇵🇭@coastguardph's BRP Teresa Magbanua, which has been posted there since mid-April. [Thread 🧵1/7]Image
2/Six 🇨🇳Qiong Sansha Yu militia ships also surround the 🇵🇭#Philippines' ship (see above), while 4-5 smaller militia known as Spratly Backbone Vessels can be seen "rafted" together () in this 🛰️@sentinel_hub image of the southern part of the shoal. [🧵2/7]sealight.live/posts/gray-zon…Image
3/The arrival of the 135-meter 🇨🇳CCG 5303 likely means the end of the 165-meter 🇨🇳CCG 5901's deployment to Sabina Shoal. The world's largest coast guard ship known as "The Monster" arrived at Sabina on 3 July but has been "dark" () since 31 July. [🧵3/7]sealight.live/posts/gray-zon…
Read 7 tweets
Ray Powell Profile picture
Mar 4, 2024
🧵1/x-🇵🇭#Philippines' resupply to 2nd Thomas Shoal now underway. 🇨🇳#China's maritime militia has established blockade positions & appears ready to contest (unlike last month's mission). 15 militia ships visible on AIS, likely others (including China Coast Guard) running "dark". Image
🧵2/x-@coastguardph's BRP Cabra & BRP Sindangan providing escort to 🇵🇭#Philippines' resupply boats. As noted yesterday👇, at least 1-2 large 🇨🇳#China Coast Guard spotted in area (running dark) & likely involved in blockade. History suggests probably more.
🧵3/x-#China Coast Guard ships frequently "go dark" when involved in harassment operations, as documented in SeaLight's "Gray Zone Tactics Playbook" last year.
sealight.live/posts/gray-zon…
Read 16 tweets

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