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Ray Powell Profile picture
@GordianKnotRay
Feb 6, 2023 • 8 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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1/The preponderance of the evidence suggests that on 6 Feb #China Coast Guard ship 5205 stopped, harassed and followed #Philippines Coast Guard BRP Malapascua near Sabina Shoal for 8+ hours, preventing it from returning to Palawan. Let me explain my reasoning. [Thread 1/7]
2/BRP Malapascua (@coastguardph MRRV-4403) left Pag-Asa (Thitu) Island moving SE on 5 Feb/0930 PHT after anchoring overnight. Its companion for that night, BRP Teresa Magbanua (MRRV-9701), would move off to the NE 14 hours later. [2/7]
3/BRP Malapascua seemed headed to Palawan, but 3 hours after it left Pag-Asa CCG 5205 (marked "Unknown") left Mischief Reef moving west, came to a stop right across Malapascua's path & then at 1940L went "dark" (stopped transmitting its Automatic Identification System/AIS) [3/7]
4/Late that night at 06/0120L, east of Sabina Shoal BRP Malapascua turned sharply to port and slowed to 1 knot. It would remain essentially stopped for the next 11 hours. CCG 5205 remained dark on AIS for this entire period. [4/7]
5/Finally, just after noon BRP Malapascua got back underway but on a new course, this time due west. After slowing & taking a brief detour to the south, it again moved west toward Ayungin (2nd Thomas) Shoal, near where another China Coast Guard ship (5304) was on patrol. [5/7]
6/Just after midnight 7 Feb CCG 5205 at last reappeared back near Mischief Reef after Malapascua was well away to the north. (Notes: 5205 is marked "Unknown" but can be ID'd by its MMSI 512005205; the dashed line indicates when its AIS was off & its exact position unknown.) [6/7]
7/Until CCG 5205 reappeared at Mischief Reef I hesitated to voice my theory directly. Now I think the preponderance of evidence I have suggests it had a protracted confrontation with BRP Malapascua, which looks to be rejoining BRP Teresa Magbanua north of Jackson Atoll. [7/7 END]
Addendum: The time between when BRP Malapascua first turned and stopped near Sabina Shoal (0120L) to when it turned away from Ayungin (2nd Thomas) Shoal (1920L) was ~18 hours. Upon reflection it seems probable CCG 5205 remained in close contact for that entire period.

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More from @GordianKnotRay

Ray Powell Profile picture
Aug 15
1⃣Several new developments this morning at #ScarboroughShoal, following Monday's 🚢💥🚢 collision between 2 🇨🇳#PRC ships & subsequent search & rescue ops🛟.
Let's unpack🧳... [🧵1/5] Image
2⃣First, #China is reducing the number of ships enforcing its #ScarboroughShoal exclusion zone, which was temporarily plussed-up to at least 8 China Coast Guard & 14 militia starting on 5 August.
Today we can see 3 🇨🇳CCG & 8 🇨🇳militia ships leaving the area. Most are headed back to #China, but 2 of the militia are headed SW toward the Spratly Islands.
This suggests Beijing had 🕵️intelligence that the 🇵🇭#Philippines was planning Monday's "Kadiwa" 🎣 operation & augmented its force in anticipation. [🧵2/5]Image
3⃣The #Philippines' Bureau of 🎣Fisheries & Aquatic Resources (BFAR) ship BRP Datu Matanam Taradapit is on its way back to Sual Fish Port in Pangasinan after checking in on Reed Bank, Iroquois Reef & the 🇵🇭 bases at Lawak & Patag Islands. It has picked up a 🇨🇳#PRC "escort" (#China Coast Guard 5303) as it passed Scarborough to make sure it goes home & doesn't decide to visit again. [🧵3/5]Image
Read 5 tweets
Ray Powell Profile picture
Aug 7
1/🚨🇵🇭BATANES NOW BRACKETED BY 🇨🇳#CHINA COAST GUARD SHIPS🚨
Three large CCG ships have taken up positions east, west and possibly north of the #Philippines' northernmost Batanes Islands (those nearest 🇹🇼#Taiwan).
Details follow in thread below:👇👇👇 [🧵1/5] Image
2/The 112-meter 🇨🇳#China Coast Guard 4304--a Zhouyu-class patrol ship armed with a 76mm main gun--has been patrolling 70nm west of 🇵🇭Batanes since 2100 last night. [🧵2/5] Image
3/A second Zhouyu-class patrol ship of similar size, 🇨🇳#China Coast Guard 3304 (also armed with a 76mm main gun) passed north of the 🇵🇭Batanes Islands and has been patrolling 45nm to the east since 1300 this afternoon. [🧵3/5] Image
Read 5 tweets
Ray Powell Profile picture
Apr 7
🚨NOW WE KNOW🚨
Q: Why was 🇨🇳#China's deep-sea research ship Tan Suo Yi Hao traversing 🇦🇺#Australia's southern coast? This route clearly was not the most direct back to its home port of Sanya--it obviously had another objective.
A: The Diamantina Trench. I'll explain...🧵1/10👇Image
Concern about 🇨🇳#China's research ships is well founded, with strong evidence they act as dual-use intelligence collection platforms for the 🇨🇳#PLA.
Ex: the Song Hang's oddly meandering route through the 🇵🇭#Philippines' archipelago last week. 👇 🧵2/10
inquirer.net/434714/chinese…
However, the 🇨🇳Tan Suo Yi Hao's route didn't veer north toward 🇦🇺#Australia's southern coast, but kept mostly outside its 200nm exclusive economic zone after it passed through the Bass Strait (north of Tasmania). Nor did it loiter to conduct detailed survey ops...until... 🧵3/10Image
Read 10 tweets
Ray Powell Profile picture
Mar 22
"What are these ships doing? We don't know" said @mercoglianos on dark fleets for @IndoPacPodcast (below). Meanwhile 2 mystery cargo ships have loitered by 🇹🇼#Taiwan's Penghu Islands for months--*not* carrying cargo anywhere. What do we know about these suspicious ships? [🧵1/5]Image
First, @mercoglianos's point about dark fleets' risk to subsea cables is highly relevant to these mystery ships' activity, since 🇹🇼#Taiwan's Penghu Islands were a recent target of cable sabotage & also connect the Kinmen Islands to the main island. [🧵2/5]Image
The loitering 🇨🇳#China-flagged ship has visited 4 eastern 🇹🇼Penghu harbors since 1st appearing 10 June--often arriving/departing at night & usually very briefly. Most of its ops since then have been "dark" () & its AIS has almost no ID'ing info. [🧵3/5]sealight.live/posts/gray-zon…Image
Image
Read 6 tweets
Ray Powell Profile picture
Mar 6
1/Another suspicious ship loitering off 🇹🇼#Taiwan's SW coast is the 🇨🇲#Cameroon-flagged Da Li. Like others we've tracked (some of which have been involved in subsea cable sabotage), this is a "cargo" ship that clearly doesn't transport cargo. So what exactly is it doing? [🧵1/8]Image
2/The Da Li is registered to 🇰🇭#Cambodia company "PHEAR S", which owns/operates only this one ship. In other words, if PHEAR S is a cargo shipping company, its only vessel does not ship cargo. [🧵2/8]Image
Image
3/Since arriving in Jan 2024 the Da Li has spent most of its time off 🇹🇼#Taiwan's SW coast, but starting in June 2024 it began taking trips into the #SouthChinaSea--especially around 🇹🇼Taiwan's Pratas Island & in the 🇵🇭#Philippines' exclusive economic zone. [🧵3/8]Image
Read 8 tweets
Ray Powell Profile picture
Feb 6
1/Suspicious ship update: Just 1 month after the 🇹🇼#Taiwan Coast Guard reported driving away 🇲🇳#Mongolia-flagged, 🇭🇰#HongKong-registered Bao Shun from around its subsea cables, the ship is again loitering off Taiwan's coast, now near Qimei Island. So what is this ship? [🧵1/10]Image
2/As reported by @keverington in @TaiwanNewsEN, on 6 Jan the Bao Shun "was spotted taking an erratic course in the same area of subsea cables, sparking further national security concerns after a 🇨🇳Chinese ship allegedly damaged a subsea cable." [🧵2/10]
3/@keverington, citing @VesselFinder, further reported that the ship "was built in 2005 when it was a 🇨🇳Chinese-flagged ship under the Mandarin name Shun Tai 188 and has subsequently had three other Mandarin names." [🧵3/10]Image
Read 10 tweets

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