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Ray Powell Profile picture
@GordianKnotRay
Feb 6, 2023 • 8 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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1/The preponderance of the evidence suggests that on 6 Feb #China Coast Guard ship 5205 stopped, harassed and followed #Philippines Coast Guard BRP Malapascua near Sabina Shoal for 8+ hours, preventing it from returning to Palawan. Let me explain my reasoning. [Thread 1/7]
2/BRP Malapascua (@coastguardph MRRV-4403) left Pag-Asa (Thitu) Island moving SE on 5 Feb/0930 PHT after anchoring overnight. Its companion for that night, BRP Teresa Magbanua (MRRV-9701), would move off to the NE 14 hours later. [2/7]
3/BRP Malapascua seemed headed to Palawan, but 3 hours after it left Pag-Asa CCG 5205 (marked "Unknown") left Mischief Reef moving west, came to a stop right across Malapascua's path & then at 1940L went "dark" (stopped transmitting its Automatic Identification System/AIS) [3/7]
4/Late that night at 06/0120L, east of Sabina Shoal BRP Malapascua turned sharply to port and slowed to 1 knot. It would remain essentially stopped for the next 11 hours. CCG 5205 remained dark on AIS for this entire period. [4/7]
5/Finally, just after noon BRP Malapascua got back underway but on a new course, this time due west. After slowing & taking a brief detour to the south, it again moved west toward Ayungin (2nd Thomas) Shoal, near where another China Coast Guard ship (5304) was on patrol. [5/7]
6/Just after midnight 7 Feb CCG 5205 at last reappeared back near Mischief Reef after Malapascua was well away to the north. (Notes: 5205 is marked "Unknown" but can be ID'd by its MMSI 512005205; the dashed line indicates when its AIS was off & its exact position unknown.) [6/7]
7/Until CCG 5205 reappeared at Mischief Reef I hesitated to voice my theory directly. Now I think the preponderance of evidence I have suggests it had a protracted confrontation with BRP Malapascua, which looks to be rejoining BRP Teresa Magbanua north of Jackson Atoll. [7/7 END]
Addendum: The time between when BRP Malapascua first turned and stopped near Sabina Shoal (0120L) to when it turned away from Ayungin (2nd Thomas) Shoal (1920L) was ~18 hours. Upon reflection it seems probable CCG 5205 remained in close contact for that entire period.

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More from @GordianKnotRay

Ray Powell Profile picture
Mar 4
🧵1/x-🇵🇭#Philippines' resupply to 2nd Thomas Shoal now underway. 🇨🇳#China's maritime militia has established blockade positions & appears ready to contest (unlike last month's mission). 15 militia ships visible on AIS, likely others (including China Coast Guard) running "dark". Image
🧵2/x-@coastguardph's BRP Cabra & BRP Sindangan providing escort to 🇵🇭#Philippines' resupply boats. As noted yesterday👇, at least 1-2 large 🇨🇳#China Coast Guard spotted in area (running dark) & likely involved in blockade. History suggests probably more.
🧵3/x-#China Coast Guard ships frequently "go dark" when involved in harassment operations, as documented in SeaLight's "Gray Zone Tactics Playbook" last year.
sealight.live/posts/gray-zon…
Read 16 tweets
Ray Powell Profile picture
Dec 9, 2023
1/BREAKING: 30-meter 🇵🇭#Philippines Bureau of Fisheries & Aquatic Resources (BFAR) vessel BRP Datu Bankaw is now at Scarborough Shoal, and has been closely engaged with 99m 🇨🇳#China Coast Guard ship 3302 & at least 4 maritime ~60m militia ships for the past 3 hours. [🧵1/x] Image
2/News reports that CCG 3302 has deployed a water cannon in the direction of the BFAR vessel.

[🧵2/x]
3/BRP Datu Bankaw was previously at Scarborough Shoal 20-23 Sep, when a Filipino fisherman defiantly drove circles around CCG 3105.

[🧵3/x]
Read 10 tweets
Ray Powell Profile picture
Dec 3, 2023
1/Dec 3, 2023: 125 ships belonging to 🇨🇳#China’s infamous distant-water fishing fleet crowd the Arabian Sea between 🇮🇳#India & 🇴🇲#Oman. Most are from the Fu Yuan Yu fleet, which has been tied to illegal fishing practices and human rights abuses: [🧵1/4] iuuriskintelligence.com/fu-yuan-yu-fle…
Image
2/⛴️123 ships of 🇨🇳#China’s Fu Yuan Yu fleet—together with their parent company, Pingtan Marine Enterprise, Ltd.—were placed under @USTreasury
Magnitsky Act sanction in Dec 2022 for serious #humanrights abuses:
[🧵2/4]ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions…
3/“Crewmembers, already enduring miserable conditions, overwork & extreme isolation aboard Pingtan Fishing-owned vessels, have reported instances of physical violence and forced labor.”
Pingtan received $19M subsidy from 🇨🇳#China’s gov’t in 2021:

[🧵3/4]home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…
Read 4 tweets
Ray Powell Profile picture
Nov 9, 2023
1/🚨BREAKING: The 🇵🇭#Philippines is sending another resupply mission toward 2nd Thomas (Ayungin) Shoal today. @coastguardph's 44m BRP Sindangan is escorting, accompanied by 97m BRP Melchora Aquino across Sabina Shoal, while 44m BRP Cabra approaches from the SE. [🧵1/x] Image
2/🇨🇳#China's blockading force includes 15 militia ships + 2 back near Mischief Reef + 3 en route.
4 coast guard ships also blocking but not broadcasting AIS are 21551 & 21555. CCG 21556 seen earlier.
Zhouyu-class cutter Hai Jing 3303 in shadowing position near BRP Cabra. [🧵2/x] Image
3/Of 🇨🇳#China's 15 total militia ships, only 7 were on scene 24 hours ago.
The other 8 raced over yesterday from stations off Johnson Reef (5), Gavan Reefs (2) & 🇵🇭#Philippines-held Thitu Island (1).
Another 3 more militia are still inbound from Fiery Cross Reef. [🧵3/x] Image
Read 26 tweets
Ray Powell Profile picture
Oct 21, 2023
🚨1/NOW: 🇵🇭#Philippine Coast Guard BRP Cabra & Sindangan escorting resupply to outpost aboard BRP Sierra Madre at 2nd Thomas Shoal. 🇨🇳#China Coast Guard 4301 shadowing & 12 Qiong Sansha Yu maritime militia ships in blockade positions. However … [🧵1/x] Image
2/CCG ships 21551 & 21556, logged by the 🇵🇭PCG during the 8 Sep resupply mission, have not been visible on AIS (poss. broadcasting weaker Class B signals). Seems likely that they are still in the area. CCG 5305 mid-Sep & if there was a replacement it’s running AIS-dark. [🧵2/x]
3/Already getting tense with 🇨🇳militia ship Qiong Sansha Yu bow-crossing 🇵🇭PCG’s Cabra at 0604 local time. Only ~100m clearance moving at 10knots. [🧵3/x] Image
Read 17 tweets
Ray Powell Profile picture
Sep 7, 2023
🚨1/BREAKING: 🇵🇭#Philippines' 3rd resupply mission to outpost on BRP Sierra Madre at 2nd Thomas (Ayungin) Shoal in past 5 weeks. @coastguardph escorts BRP Cabra & Sindangan are escorting resupply boats past gauntlet of at least 1 🇨🇳 #China Coast Guard & 8 militia ships. [🧵1/n] Image
2/Previous resupply missions encountered "dark" 🇨🇳#China Coast Guard ships (not broadcasting automatic information system, or AIS). Unclear if dark ships present today, but forward deployment of so many militia ships suggests fewer CCG than before. [🧵2/n]
sealight.live/posts/gray-zon…
3/🇨🇳#China has blockaded 🇵🇭#Philippines' outpost on BRP Sierra Madre for years to deny 🇵🇭's ability to repair the ship, until it eventually breaks up & must be abandoned. At that point 🇨🇳 plans to take full control of 2nd Thomas (Ayungin) Shoal. [🧵2/n]
sealight.live/posts/the-time…
Read 8 tweets

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