https://t.co/rn0ADorvlK Director / Co-host of @IndoPacPodcast
#osint #southchinasea #grayzone #podcast
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2⃣First, #China is reducing the number of ships enforcing its #ScarboroughShoal exclusion zone, which was temporarily plussed-up to at least 8 China Coast Guard & 14 militia starting on 5 August. 
2/The 112-meter 🇨🇳#China Coast Guard 4304--a Zhouyu-class patrol ship armed with a 76mm main gun--has been patrolling 70nm west of 🇵🇭Batanes since 2100 last night. [🧵2/5] 
Concern about 🇨🇳#China's research ships is well founded, with strong evidence they act as dual-use intelligence collection platforms for the 🇨🇳#PLA. 
First, @mercoglianos's point about dark fleets' risk to subsea cables is highly relevant to these mystery ships' activity, since 🇹🇼#Taiwan's Penghu Islands were a recent target of cable sabotage & also connect the Kinmen Islands to the main island. [🧵2/5]
2/The Da Li is registered to 🇰🇭#Cambodia company "PHEAR S", which owns/operates only this one ship. In other words, if PHEAR S is a cargo shipping company, its only vessel does not ship cargo. [🧵2/8]
2/As reported by @keverington in @TaiwanNewsEN, on 6 Jan the Bao Shun "was spotted taking an erratic course in the same area of subsea cables, sparking further national security concerns after a 🇨🇳Chinese ship allegedly damaged a subsea cable." [🧵2/10]
The VASILIY SHUKSHIN left 🇷🇺#Russia's Vostochnyy port 8 Dec, stopped briefly in 🇰🇷#SouthKorea & then began trolling off 🇹🇼#Taiwan's SW coast on 19 Dec. According to self-reporting it was to have reached Qui Nhon 🇻🇳#Vietnam on 27 Dec. 
2/While no 🇵🇭#Philippines ships are openly broadcasting on AIS () approaching Sabina Shoal, 🇨🇳#China's deployments are clearly intended to cut off approaches from/via the 🇵🇭@coastguardph's base at Buliluyan Port at the southern tip of Palawan. [🧵2/x] sealight.live/posts/what-is-…
2/Six 🇨🇳Qiong Sansha Yu militia ships also surround the 🇵🇭#Philippines' ship (see above), while 4-5 smaller militia known as Spratly Backbone Vessels can be seen "rafted" together () in this 🛰️@sentinel_hub image of the southern part of the shoal. [🧵2/7]sealight.live/posts/gray-zon…
🧵2/x-@coastguardph's BRP Cabra & BRP Sindangan providing escort to 🇵🇭#Philippines' resupply boats. As noted yesterday👇, at least 1-2 large 🇨🇳#China Coast Guard spotted in area (running dark) & likely involved in blockade. History suggests probably more.
2/News reports that CCG 3302 has deployed a water cannon in the direction of the BFAR vessel.
2/⛴️123 ships of 🇨🇳#China’s Fu Yuan Yu fleet—together with their parent company, Pingtan Marine Enterprise, Ltd.—were placed under @USTreasury
2/🇨🇳#China's blockading force includes 15 militia ships + 2 back near Mischief Reef + 3 en route. 
2/CCG ships 21551 & 21556, logged by the 🇵🇭PCG during the 8 Sep resupply mission, have not been visible on AIS (poss. broadcasting weaker Class B signals). Seems likely that they are still in the area. CCG 5305 mid-Sep & if there was a replacement it’s running AIS-dark. [🧵2/x]
2/Previous resupply missions encountered "dark" 🇨🇳#China Coast Guard ships (not broadcasting automatic information system, or AIS). Unclear if dark ships present today, but forward deployment of so many militia ships suggests fewer CCG than before. [🧵2/n]
2/What I didn’t see then was the militia ships were escorting survey ship Xiang Yang Hong 10. While seeing #China’s survey ships in #Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone isn’t new, it’s odd to see them escorted by so many militia. 
2/However, by 10 March—perhaps due to the #Philippines’ new transparency initiative—#China had apparently recalculated & decided that swarming was no longer in its interest. Only 10 ships remained in the Pag-Asa Cays. Where did the rest go? 
2/The 2016 @UN Arbitral Tribunal case ruled that Pag-Asa carries the legal status of a “rock” under int’l law, meaning it’s always above water but can’t organically support human habitation. This affirmed its right to a legal 12nm territorial sea. (2/5)
2/BRP Malapascua (@coastguardph MRRV-4403) left Pag-Asa (Thitu) Island moving SE on 5 Feb/0930 PHT after anchoring overnight. Its companion for that night, BRP Teresa Magbanua (MRRV-9701), would move off to the NE 14 hours later. [2/7] 
