https://t.co/rn0ADorvlK Director / Co-host of @IndoPacPodcast
#osint #southchinasea #grayzone #podcast
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2/While no 🇵🇭#Philippines ships are openly broadcasting on AIS () approaching Sabina Shoal, 🇨🇳#China's deployments are clearly intended to cut off approaches from/via the 🇵🇭@coastguardph's base at Buliluyan Port at the southern tip of Palawan. [🧵2/x] sealight.live/posts/what-is-…
2/Six 🇨🇳Qiong Sansha Yu militia ships also surround the 🇵🇭#Philippines' ship (see above), while 4-5 smaller militia known as Spratly Backbone Vessels can be seen "rafted" together () in this 🛰️@sentinel_hub image of the southern part of the shoal. [🧵2/7]sealight.live/posts/gray-zon…
🧵2/x-@coastguardph's BRP Cabra & BRP Sindangan providing escort to 🇵🇭#Philippines' resupply boats. As noted yesterday👇, at least 1-2 large 🇨🇳#China Coast Guard spotted in area (running dark) & likely involved in blockade. History suggests probably more.
2/News reports that CCG 3302 has deployed a water cannon in the direction of the BFAR vessel.
2/⛴️123 ships of 🇨🇳#China’s Fu Yuan Yu fleet—together with their parent company, Pingtan Marine Enterprise, Ltd.—were placed under @USTreasury
2/🇨🇳#China's blockading force includes 15 militia ships + 2 back near Mischief Reef + 3 en route. 
2/CCG ships 21551 & 21556, logged by the 🇵🇭PCG during the 8 Sep resupply mission, have not been visible on AIS (poss. broadcasting weaker Class B signals). Seems likely that they are still in the area. CCG 5305 mid-Sep & if there was a replacement it’s running AIS-dark. [🧵2/x]
2/Previous resupply missions encountered "dark" 🇨🇳#China Coast Guard ships (not broadcasting automatic information system, or AIS). Unclear if dark ships present today, but forward deployment of so many militia ships suggests fewer CCG than before. [🧵2/n]
2/What I didn’t see then was the militia ships were escorting survey ship Xiang Yang Hong 10. While seeing #China’s survey ships in #Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone isn’t new, it’s odd to see them escorted by so many militia. 
2/However, by 10 March—perhaps due to the #Philippines’ new transparency initiative—#China had apparently recalculated & decided that swarming was no longer in its interest. Only 10 ships remained in the Pag-Asa Cays. Where did the rest go? 
2/The 2016 @UN Arbitral Tribunal case ruled that Pag-Asa carries the legal status of a “rock” under int’l law, meaning it’s always above water but can’t organically support human habitation. This affirmed its right to a legal 12nm territorial sea. (2/5)
2/BRP Malapascua (@coastguardph MRRV-4403) left Pag-Asa (Thitu) Island moving SE on 5 Feb/0930 PHT after anchoring overnight. Its companion for that night, BRP Teresa Magbanua (MRRV-9701), would move off to the NE 14 hours later. [2/7] 
2/First some background: PH Coast Guard ship BRP Teresa Magbanua (MRRV-9701) was acquired from #Japan in 2021. It was recently deployed in support of Philippine fishermen near Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal after reports of PRC harassment there. [2/14]