Thread by @BambroughKevin

Couple years ago I was told it will never happen. Amazing how quickly public sentiment changes and how quickly ass kissing politicians flip and respond to the poles.

Massive new #uranium bull market is in full swing

https://twitter.com/sstapczynski/status/1623935541015371777

Japan was the primary source of the #uranium bear market. They’ve been selling off inventory for a decade. Cupboard is empty and they will now have to engage in a massive restocking. How many years of inventory is prudent for nation. They were always very conservative…

Many years of inventory stockpiled and also many more locked up under contract. I expect they will be seeking to contract for hundreds of millions of lbs. Simply explosive for the #uranium market as the biggest source of dumping will become the biggest source of pumping

The battle for long term uranium supplies is coming… this market is all about the long term contracting cycle and it’s about to get dramatic. Some will surely elect to grab what can be had in a very thin spot market. As perception changes such that the market comes to believe…

that the #uranium market will surely run to its all time highs again. $150-200/lb it becomes a self-filling prophecy. Buying begets more buying, Those with lbs decide not to sell expecting higher prices. Those that need to buy decide to act fast. Those that want to speculate…

Jump in with both feet. Those that want to play a squeeze. Those that are short cover in desperation. Just as the #molybdenum market tightened and ran hard this past month.. so shall the #uranium market. Gonna be simply wild when the big dollars flow. I’m hearing more…

Serious institutions are waking up to the trade and front running Japanese utilities will spur action. Especially with the USA gov preparing to fund a $1.5 bln fuel reserve purchase.

The uranium market historically wakes up all at once.. they hum and haw. They delay….

But the fuel buyers all read the same shit and exhibit crowd behaviour like no other commodity market. It’s an industry where outperforming doesn’t pay. But underperforming gets your fired. When the crowd acts and begins to buy… they move all at once.

That’s why panic sets in. No one wants to look stupid and get fired from a well paying cushy ass job. I expect fire works as the industry letters start presenting the math on the number of lbs needed to be contracted and the fact that their simply aren’t enough mines permitted

Or financed or anywhere near construction ready to bring on the supplies that the industry wants to contract for on a 10 year basis. Those with out coverage will be getting extremely uncomfortable fast. Before this cycle is over either yca or sput or both will see take over bids

They world needs those lbs in the food change not stockpiled by investors. The only question in my mind is how much they are gonna have to pay to wrestle back those lbs into the market place

A few years ago the world view on nuclear power plant growth was dramatically off and the market has just started to adjust its forecast. Some saying 50% growth by 2030. But the reality is that the expectation of growth is going to continue to ratchet up.

I’ve been vocal about my long term target of an attempt to get the global grid to 30% nuclear as soon as possible and that their will also be a doubling of the grids output due to electric vehicles and ever growing emerging market demand. 6x todays ~10-11% nuclear contribution

The key for investors is to be set up for this psychological change to occur before it does. Doesn’t matter the commodity. Ya have to anticipate that change and invest heavily before it changes in order to get paid.

You only really get paid for predicting change.. modelling what is known today helps paint a picture but it’s the future that matters. Will more nuclear plants get announced? What will grow quicker? Supply or demand. Restarts, life extensions and new builds including SMR’s

Combine to outpace mine supply for the next couple decades. The dwindling historical mines need to be replaced and so many major new mines must be built. The pace of conversion of coal plants to SMR’s will soon lead some analysts to come out with huge potential growth targets

The investment community will begin to ask the question… how soon can we replace all coal fired plants? #uranium market will end in a glorious bubble. Just like we saw for FAANG stocks, TSLA and crypto.

I will look conservative and be a voice of caution at the peak… just like 2007 :)