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Feb 11 • 9 tweets • 7 min read
🧵on today's three🗺️changes (1/8)

1. Recoded Russian claims to assessed advances over Krasna Hora, #Donetsk Oblast

2. Expanded Russian assessed advances to a residential block in NE #Bakhmut

3. Recoded Russian claims as Ukrainian counteroffensives over Synkivka, #Kharkiv Obl.
2/
1. We re-coded Russian claims to assessed advances over Krasna Hora, #Donetsk Oblast, given geolocated video evidence published 11 FEB showing Ukrainian artillery striking Russian positions in the western portion of the village, indicating Ukrainian forces likely withdrew.
3/ Russian milblogger Rybar also claimed on 11 FEB that Wagner Group units attacked Krasna Hora from three directions. Sources: ; ; ; t.me/robert_magyar/…; ; t.me/rybar/43505
4/ More sources: ;
5/

2. We expanded Russian assessed advances into a residential block in northeast Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, given geolocated combat footage published February 10 and 11 showing Ukrainian forces engaging Wagner Group positions. Sources:
6/ More sources: ; ; ; ;
7/
3. We re-coded Russian claims as Ukrainian counteroffensives over Synkivka, Kharkiv given a Ukrainian General Staff report on February 11 that Russian forces shelled #Synkivka. Russian milblogger Rybar claimed that Russian forces struck Ukrainian positions in Synkivka today.
8/ Sources: facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…; t.me/rybar/43509
See the latest changes on our interactive map: arcg.is/09O0OS

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Feb 12
The Russian military command is deploying its most elite units to the Bakhmut area in smaller formations using urban infiltration tactics, according to the limited footage of Russian tactics in the area that @TheStudyofWar has observed. 🧵 (1 of 10)
2/ These tactics seem to be resulting in significant tactical Russian advances in the #Bakhmut area that could lead to operational gains if Ukrainian forces choose to withdraw from Bakhmut.
3/ Russian offensive operations elsewhere in #Donetsk Oblast and along the Svatove-Kreminna line in western #Luhansk and eastern #Kharkiv oblasts have resulted in marginal advances without operational significance thus far.
Read 10 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Feb 12
A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Russian forces failed to quickly advance in the first days of their offensive to capture #Vuhledar and that Russian forces had lost the initiative by the end of January due to Ukraine's rapid transfer of reserves to the area.
2/ The milblogger made his assessment that the Russian offensive to capture #Vuhledar has likely culminated in response to viral footage showing Ukrainian forces destroying a disorderly column of Russian mechanized forces in the Vuhledar area.
3/ Russian milbloggers seized on the footage to criticize the Russian military command for repeating the same failures that have plagued the Russian military throughout the war in #Ukraine.
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Feb 12
#Prigozhin also confirmed on 11 FEB that the #Wagner Group stopped recruiting inside Russian prisons due to the expiration of an agreement between the Wagner Group and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). isw.pub/UkrWar021123
2/ Prigozhin stated that unspecified military detachments outside of his jurisdiction – likely referring to Russia’s conventional armed forces – will continue convict recruitment efforts.
3/ A Wagner Group-affiliated Russian milblogger also claimed that the Russian MoD is increasing its efforts to recruit inside Russian prisons.
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Feb 12
Russian forces are highly unlikely to launch a coordinated effort to capture #Siversk in the coming weeks, contrary to previous claims from prominent Russian milbloggers. isw.pub/UkrWar021123
2/ Prominent Russian milbloggers recently responded to #Wagner Group advances north of Soledar (20km south of #Siversk) and Russian claims of capturing Bilohorivka, #Luhansk (13km NE of) by suggesting that Russian forces were launching a complementary effort to encircle Siversk.
3/ ISW assessed that Russian forces would need to launch a far more concerted effort in the direction of #Siversk from the north, east, and south to drive on the settlement.
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Feb 12
Eastern #Ukraine: #Donetsk Oblast🧵

Russian forces continue to prioritize offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast and conducted offensive operations around #Bakhmut, along the western outskirts of Donetsk City, and in western Donetsk Oblast on February 11. isw.pub/UkrWar021123 Image
2/ Geolocated footage published on February 11 shows Russian forces walking freely in the eastern part of Krasna Hora (6km north of #Bakhmut) and likely indicates that Ukrainian forces withdrew from the settlement. Image
3/ Geolocated footage posted on February 11 indicates that Wagner Group fighters likely secured marginal advances in the northeast outskirts of Bakhmut. Image
Read 7 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Feb 12
Eastern #Ukraine: #Kharkiv & #Luhansk Oblast🧵

Russian forces continued offensive operations near #Svatove and #Kreminna. (1/6) isw.pub/UkrWar021123 Image
2/ Russian forces reportedly cont'd offensive operations NW of #Svatove amidst conflicting claims about Russian advances on 11 FEB. A Russian milblogger claimed battles are ongoing near Hryanykivka & that Russian forces control Dvorichna (53km & 55km NW of Svatove, respectively. Image
3/ The milblogger may have been confusing Dvorichna with Dvorichne as the Russian MoD yesterday claimed to capture the latter. ISW hasn't observed visual confirmation that Russian forces are in Dvorichne nor that Russian forces have made any advances closer to Dvorichna, however.
Read 6 tweets

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