Thread by @DionisCenusa

#CrisisManagement: Apart from the humanitarian crisis caused by the devastating earthquakes in Turkey, there could be a series of cascading effects on other issues: 1) Turkey planned to organize its first gas summit next week to bring together producers and importers. The event⤵️

was moved to March. This can affect certain Gad arrangements scheduled by various govts and gas companies; 2) The Turkish govt is prominent in the Ukraine-Russia mediation over the “grain deal”. It is imperative to provide assistance to Turkey so that it can stay focused on⤵️

its foreign policy that was favorable for helping Ukraine and the West to ensure the global food security; 3) Turkey hosts 3.6 million Syrian refugees who will be affected by the consequences of the earthquake. The Turkish population affected by the natural disaster is already⤵️

being directed to the western regions of Turkey. Social pressure could be growing rapidly. EU involvement in refugee management is essential. If Turkey is not helped, the increase in illegal migration of Syrian refugees from Turkey to the EU (via Greece) could become inevitable.

4) The earthquakes have also affected Azerbaijan's oil exports. The uncertainty of the cascading effects of this natural disaster is very high and may affect the power supply through Turkey to Europe.

https://twitter.com/eurasianet/status/1624483912129953793

5) Another essential aspect of crisis management is the reputational costs that Erdogan is suffering. The deterioration of his legitimacy at his home may affect his performance as an outside actor advocating for Ukraine-Russia mediation effort. This brings back a recent comment⤵️

https://twitter.com/abdbozkurt/status/1624671813337853953

of mine about Brazil's proposal to establish a platform for peace negotiations. The weakening of the Turkish leadership internally under the pressure of the current crisis (natural disaster) must be assessed accordingly and, if necessary, an additional mediator must be found⤵️

(not to replace Turkey, but to intervene when necessary). Brazil is obviously not suitable for geopolitical reasons (because Lula seems to be lax about Russian aggression against Ukraine). Who that actor might be, it's hard to say.⤵️

Perhaps we can even talk about a clear delegation of this task from Erdogan (who has been monopolizing this role) to another senior Turkish politician (who does not have his image discredited with regard to the links between building safety and earthquake shock prevention).