Vitaly Profile picture
Feb 12 7 tweets 5 min read
#TalkingPoint #Losses
Watch the strong trend on increased losses since December.
But the growth started back in September.
Kharkiv and Kherson operations added to the overall trend, but that half year trend is obvious.
Those increased losses aren’t believable on their own.
One of the best explanation of them is increased number of troops and @Kartinamaslom5 did a great description of it.
Increased losses are correlated with increased number of deployed forces.
@Kartinamaslom5 For a long time i was convinced that 🇷🇺 is limited in front capacity based on the initial number of deployed BTGs. That was a mistake.
With a change of infantry ratio 🇷🇺 were able gradually increase it's capacity.
So 300k is a planned increase.
@Kartinamaslom5 Equipment losses are to fractioned and need to be reviewed in week batches.
That shows the interesting picture
The rise in KIA started from the week 30 the lowest point of 🇷🇺 equipment losses.
Seems like that was the begging of meat tactics.
@Kartinamaslom5 Equipment losses also allows to distinguish some war eons.
🇷🇺 losses become tor rise at the mid of Dec, that should be marked as the end of the regroup and another round of deployment.
In part of ever rising KIA numbers it should be the beginning of the still awaited offense.
@Kartinamaslom5 Summary
Current losses should correlate with the actual deployed numbers.
Seems like the KIA/Deployed ratio hasn’t changed since September and equals of ~0.3% a day over half a year.
Insane lost in equipment contributes a lot in that burndown coefficient.

@Kartinamaslom5 Is there a breaking point?
Current deployment is supported by 🇷🇺 accumulated reserves.
Even with 300K on the front 🇺🇦 is capable to keep the lines, forcing 🇷🇺 to rise the stakes.
🇷🇺 have 2 month before 🇺🇦 will peak.
500K 🇷🇺 isn’t that unreal.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Vitaly

Vitaly Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @M0nstas

Jan 15
#TalkingPoint #mobilization
There are rising talks about Belarus involvement into the war.
My expectations ~100K would be added to 🇷🇺 forces.

With all the current forces it should make ~1M army.

The main question where all of them could be deployed.
Where 1M army can be deployed?

There are 5 major directions
1 main objective to fully capture annexed territories🤯
Ignoring Kherson front as impossible for a full-scale invasion over the Dnipro (1M is not enough for that)

Let's explore those directions.
1. Invasion from Belarus towards Lviv. Highly unlikely.
Long supply lines, swampy forested terrain.
The area would be a death trap for a big army 50K+, because of all the complexities.
Impossible to succeed for a smaller group.
Read 8 tweets
Dec 9, 2022
🇷🇺 has switched their attention to the Soledar area.

Seems like they are changing their directions every 2 weeks.

it doesn’t mean that tension around Bakhmut would be decreased, only force distribution would change.
This behavior is some sort of pattern, that is repeated by 🇷🇺 army with different frequency on different directions.
Similar swings can be observed near Avdiivka, where both flanks aren’t attacked at the same time.
🇷🇺 is faking the might.
The idea to swing the defense, overloading enemy flank and capturing the area is not recently invented. The main fail of 🇷🇺 execution can be observed around Avdiivka. The northern flank is static since June, with a massive assault once in a month.
Read 8 tweets
Dec 7, 2022
#Map Troitske
🇷🇺 fully abandoned Kharkiv region except a small area on the left bank of the Oskil river and there is a geographic reason for that.
With more talks about full liberation of Kharkiv region appears, let’s take a brief look at the area.
1. Troitske belongs to the Oskil river basin and placed on Urazova river, that merges with the Oskil in Urazovo. The village is placed close to 3 water sheds and surrounded by curved terrain of western, steeper, slopes of Krasna and Aidar rivers.
2. Urazovo is closer to the current front, has better transport connection, provides even better control over 🇷🇺 supply lines and instantly liberates the North.
🇷🇺 knows that and use 🇺🇦 inability to cross the border on it's advantage.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 27, 2022
#TalkingPoint Holodomor
Was it a disaster - yes.
Was it intentional - 100%.
Was it nation specific - No.
Does it matter - No.

Genocide was a class based and 🇺🇦 were in the wrong one.

Demographic pyramid of 1939 census can show how deep was the cut.
Current war is a 4th heavy strike on Ukraine population since 1900
Ukraine went through
- WWI and Red Terror
- Holodomor
- WWII
- Russian invasion
Each will leave a deep marks in the generations.

Census of 1959 shows that Ukraine has newer recover after the Holodomor.
It was not a single event that made it so horrible, it was a horrible timing that impossible to describe

Agrarian state with fertility rate of 6 went through 3 major population catastrophes to return as industrial state with fertility rate 2.2
Read 11 tweets
Nov 27, 2022
#Thoughts
Since the beginning of the war there were only 6 cities 🇷🇺 captured by force:
Volnovakha, Popasna, Izum, Mariupol, Lyman, Severodonetsk.
All the cities were captured with overwhelmed advantage in gears.

There were no major gains since June.
🇷🇺 has lost ~50k personal since Severodonetsk, 30k came in last 2 months.
All the recent activities were handled purely by the infantry.
It looks like most of gears were replaced by the infantry. There might be different reasons for that, but 🇷🇺 is no longer losing stuff.
We are observing first evidences of WWII to WWI transition, where copters are used instead of artillery and more WWII barrels appears on the battlefield.
Missiles is the only weapon 🇺🇦 has no proper answer for and that is the only weapon 🇷🇺 heavily relies.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 26, 2022
NYT

Ukraine used Caesars on barges to shoot over the Snake island.
To shell Russian positions at Snake Island, for instance, the Ukrainians put Caesars, with a 40-kilometer range, on barges and towed them out 10 kilometers to hit the island, which was 50 kilometers away, astonishing the French

nytimes.com/2022/11/26/wor…
Defence-UA has published article about that (🇺🇦)
defence-ua.com/army_and_war/j…
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(