🧵I’m increasingly convinced that #Putin and “Putinism” have been made possible by the accumulation of resentments across the Russian society. #Putinism has emerged from Russians’ inability to accept that they lost the Cold War because the Soviet Union could no longer compete 1/
#Putinism is akin to the Dolchstoßlegende that emerged in Germany after its 1918 loss in Wold War I. It argued that the great German people were never defeated, but betrayed by cowardly politicians-stabbed in the back. That German legend fueled DEU interwar national resentment.2/
Roughly within a decade after WWI the Dolchstoßlegende and the national resentment it fueled gave rise to Hitler and his attempt to re-litigate the outcome in 1918. Only the unequivocal defeat of Germany in 1945 buried the legend, foreclosing the path to empire through war.3/
At a risk of over-rationalizing history, I’d argue that for the past 30 yrs Russia has travelled a trajectory similar to that of interwar Germany. Putin’s neo-imperial aspirations are nested in a sea of RUS national resentment over loss of power & prestige on the world stage. 4/
The Russian story that Putin has been pushing is one of the West, having taken advantage of Russia’s weak leaders (Gorbachev, Yeltsin, etc) robbed Russia of it glory to diminish its “velikiy russkiy narod,” That it is now poised to destroy RUS civilization. 5/
If I’m right, the Russian threat to its neighbors and its neo-imperial drive will not end regardless whether Putin remains in power or not. In the long duree of Russian history, it can only break if Russia is decisively defeated in #Ukraine- in a way that every Russian sees it 6/
That’s why so much is riding on the outcome of the war in #Ukraine. If Russia wins it will see this as a civilizational victory over the West. It will be emboldened to press on into #Georgia, #Moldova and down even breaching the @NATO line. 7/
But if Russia is defeated in #Ukraine, the collapse of the legend of “velikiy russkiy narod” could unleash centrifugal forces in RUS that would foreclose its path to empire. It would be a period of instability & risk but it would offer Europe a path to peace. #ArmUkraineNow End
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