Thread by @MPRweather

I normally don't do 🧵on snow events this far in advance. But the magnitude of this week's looming snow event still looks anywhere from seriously impactful, to potentially epic. Here's an early look at the most likely storm outcomes for Tuesday night through Thursday. ❄️❄️
#mnwx

First the system: This looks like a 2-part system. Two low-pressure waves will ride over the Rockies. Low #1 is likely to trigger a lead wave of snow across southern 1/2 of Minnesota Tuesday PM into Wednesday. Canadian model loop below between noon Tuesday and noon Wednesday.

Wave #2 is bigger and will likely cause more widespread/heavier snow across most of MN Wednesday night through Thursday. Canadian model loop below between 6 pm Wednesday and 6 pm Thursday.

The two snow waves may produce near-continuous snowfall of varying intensity for 48 hours in parts of southern Minnesota including the Twin Cities. If the average snowfall rate is even 1/3 to 1/2 inch per hour, you can see the math may add up to some prolific snowfall totals.

Based on all current forecast models and the consistency of trends, a band of anywhere between 10" and 20" of snow somewhere across the southern half of Minnesota seems quite possible, even conservative. 15" to 20" lands between the 3rd and 14th highest snowfall events for MSP.

What could go wrong? Forecast track and snowfall intensity can still change of course. But models have been remarkably consistent for days now. Given what looks increasingly likely, here are some actionable preparation steps as of now.

1) Get all supplies in place by midday Tuesday if possible.
2) Employers/employees prepare to work remotely if possible Tuesday afternoon through Thursday.
3) Stay informed on possible forecast changes.
Let's see if the forecast models remain consistent through Presidents' Day!

Note: A few high-end model snowfall outputs suggest we could challenge Halloween Mega-storm single snowstorm record of 28.6" across parts of southern Minnesota. We'll see if everything falls in place. #mnwx

Average snow: water ratio likely about 15:1. So this may be an average to slightly dry snow in most areas.