Stockmoney Lizards Profile picture
Feb 21, 2023 12 tweets 6 min read Read on X
"The biggest bull trap I have ever seen"

The current price increase of over 55% in #Bitcoin has caused a lot of euphoria😍although there were also critical voices👺

Let's take a closer look and analyze the price increase🧵 Disclaimer: We are long on ...
The question that comes up is, has the 5th bull market of #Bitcoin started?

The typical sequence of the investment cycle in #Bitcoin is:

1. halving
2. bull run
3. bear market
4. accumulation
Here is an example of the 3rd to 5th cycle. Even if the importance of halving is questioned again and again,halving remains until now biggest driver of a possible bull run. Halving leads to scarcity, leads to price increases. Ergo, price 🔼 So we have to wait for the halving🤓 Disclaimer: We are long on ...
And when the bull appears, the bull run will last over months😍 Disclaimer: We are long on ...
What we can definitely state, we have seen a double bottom. And this was also the case in the #Bitcoin history of previous bottoms. Disclaimer: We are long on ...
In fact, we are going through a textbook Wykoff accumulation. And we are in phase D.

Proclaiming a bull run is certainly too premature as we still have time until the next bisection in March 2024!

#Bitcoin Disclaimer: We are long on ...
Who is buying at moment? There are clear anomalies here🤫

Basically, #Bitcoin and other coins are bought with stablecoins.

Here you can see the flow of money in crypto. Stablecoins are the anchor point in the cycle and you need them to buy crypto. Image
While we saw a clear rise in stablecoins in the bull market 2021, we saw decreae in the recent bear market.

Strikingly, despite the sharp rise in #Bitcoin price by over 55%, there is still no trend reversal in stablecoin supply.

So who is buying the Bitcoins in the market now? Image
So lets have a closer look on CVD spot market.

Interestingly, the recent #Bitcoin price increase was mainly driven by BUSD (stable coin from PAXUS; US) used to buy Bitcoin, while CVD was negative for ALL other stable coins.

[click on ALT to get to know CVD] The Cumulative Volume Delta...
At the same time, #BUSD (stablecoin issued by PAXOS) is far from being the coin with the largest market capitalization, but the one that caused the recent Bitcoin pump.

Thus, one can speak of an over-proportional purchasing power of BUSD in recent weeks. Image
From this we can conclude the following:

The current #Bitcoin pump is not based on a broad mass of investors, but rather on a small group of BUSD holders. There are currently no signs of new market participants, as was always the case in the last bull run.
Therefore, it is not unlikely that there will be another pullback in the near future.

The market is being flooded with trillions of fresh fiat money, especially from China.

Just as we saw in 2021, central bank liquidity is driving up the price of assets like #BTC Source: https://www.yardeni...

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Stockmoney Lizards

Stockmoney Lizards Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @StockmoneyL

Jul 26
#Bitcoin

BTC is about to go nuts big time soon. Many are still in doubt and even more think we might have already seen the top.

Here's a mini-thread about why we believe the contrary is the case and that we will see a massive run in late Q3 / early Q4 this year.Disclaimer:  We have beneficial long- and short positons in various cryptocurrencies. The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only. The content expressed represents our own opinions regarding trades and should not be considered as investment advice. We do not receive compensation for the information shared. Investing in stocks and cryptocurrencies involves a high level of risk, and there is a possibility of losing your entire investment. The mathematical models presented here are based on historical data and may fail to accurately predict future price movements. ...
1/3

Besides the mere pattern that we now see, there is a strong logic behind the fact that the charts from the past 3 cycles are so similar.

1. Halving: Halving is a sell-the-news event, retail is expecting the big run, whales that have been accumulating start to distribute
2. Post-halving correction and redistribution: Retail adresses have bought the top and start to sell for a loss, while smart money is rebuying. You can see this when looking at these strong support levels in each of the cycles (in this case 53 - 56k)Image
2/3

What we describe as "short-squeeze zone" is the fact that a lot of liquidations are about to happen in this area. This will reverse many positions, induce a chartreak and turn bearish breakout traders bullish.

Important: Usually these events are preceded by a fakeout and subsequent drop before the actual rally starts.Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 11
There is an overwhelming number of #Altcoins in this cycle!

Not every coin will pump with so many new coins and scams flooding the market. A lot of advice isn't useful ("Buy AI. Buy RWA").

5 Trends of the current cycle - A 🧵Image
1/x

Before we start, some basics:

One reason why many coins haven't really pumped while others reached new ATHs is the fact that the money in the markets is flowing into a much higher number of cryptos than some years ago.

This makes it harder to get the big pumps right. Image
TREND 1: Age

We see that a lot of newer coins (ICO 2022 or newer) are amongst the massive winners.

INJ, SUI, RNDR, FET have outperformed older coins like MATIC, ATOM or LINKImage
Read 11 tweets
Apr 27
#Bitcoin

Halving is done and yet, Bitcoin continues printing red candles. Is this it for this cycle?

A lot of folks are insecure, especially in light of the geopolitical and macroeconomic situation

Let's take a look at some charts and indicators.

A 🧵 Disclaimer:  We have beneficial long- and short positons in various cryptocurrencies. The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only. The content expressed represents our own opinions regarding trades and should not be considered as investment advice. We do not receive compensation for the information shared. Investing in stocks and cryptocurrencies involves a high level of risk, and there is a possibility of losing your entire investment. The mathematical models presented here are based on historical data and may fail to accurately predict future price movements. ...
1/x
The short answer at the beginning: no, we are not at the end of the bull market.

We believe what we see is a correction which could send us back to the 50ks.

Call it triple top, call it wyckoff distribution. Bitcoin is in correction mode, but...Image
2/x

... we still believe that this is temporary. In a thread on 2 April, we wrote "double top, decreasing RSI, no bullish divergence in sight. ➡️More downside"

This has been true and so far, BTC stays in this corrective channelImage
Read 14 tweets
Apr 16
As promised, we are now providing a detailed, unbiased analysis (as unbiased as it can be) on #Bitcoin.

A lot of people are confused right now.

"WWIII - we go to zero?"
"But halving, we go to moon?"
"New ATH usually means rally?"
"But interest rate hikes? Zero?"

A 🧵Image
1/12

IMPORTANT: PLEASE READ FIRST BEFORE PROCEEDING.

We will look at TA, macroeconomics, sentiment, ETFs, and geopolitical tensions.Image
2/12

MACROECONOMICS

Core retail sale numbers were up 1.1% yesterday, indicating inflation is on the rise again.

The FED will likely not lower interest rates - on the contrary, people are now afraid of more hikes.

Meaning: Short-term bearish

Screenshot @WatcherGuruImage
Read 15 tweets
Dec 22, 2023
#Bitcoin

10 facts you need to know about the #Bitcoin ETF hype.

This is not a thread🧵by Stockmoney Lizards🦎 Image
1⃣ What are ETF´s

An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a fund with tradable shares on an exchange. Bitcoin ETFs, specifically, simplify access to Bitcoin in investment portfolios. These funds hold Bitcoin, offering a straightforward way for investors to participate the crypto hype without need of buying real #Bitcoin over a crypto exchange.
2⃣ ETF and the classic financial market

Until now, the crypto market has been decoupled from the traditional financial market. In the past, Bitcoin could only be bought via crypto exchanges.

As we are well aware, Bitcoin's history is marked by scandals and crypto exchange bankruptcies, with the most recent being the #FTX crash. This has repeatedly led to resentment in the past.

Large asset managers and financial institutions in particular have not yet invested in #Bitcoin, especially because of the uncertainty. In its early days, Bitcoin attracted idealists, developers, and visionaries, but not the big money. This will change now.
Read 13 tweets
Dec 15, 2023
Here are my #Bitcoin catalyst for 2024

A short🧵 Disclaimer: We have beneficial long- and short positons in various cryptocurrencies. The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only. The content expressed represents our own opinions regarding trades and should not be considered as investment advice. We do not receive compensation for the information shared. Investing in stocks and cryptocurrencies involves a high level of risk, and there is a possibility of losing your entire investment. The mathematical models presented here are based on historical data and may fail to accurately predict future price movements. W...
January - first ETF approval
(the first of several pending applications)

According to Bitwise, the estimated spot bitcoin ETFs could capture 1% of the $7.2 trillion U.S. ETF market within 5 years, or $72 billion in AUM. This is huge for #Bitcoin Image
March - FED start to cut interest rates

FED keeps interest rates unch for the 3rd meeting and its expected to see three cuts next year. Markets price 5.1 cuts for 2024. Image
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(