The current price increase of over 55% in #Bitcoin has caused a lot of euphoria😍although there were also critical voices👺
Let's take a closer look and analyze the price increase🧵
The question that comes up is, has the 5th bull market of #Bitcoin started?
The typical sequence of the investment cycle in #Bitcoin is:
1. halving 2. bull run 3. bear market 4. accumulation
Here is an example of the 3rd to 5th cycle. Even if the importance of halving is questioned again and again,halving remains until now biggest driver of a possible bull run. Halving leads to scarcity, leads to price increases. Ergo, price 🔼 So we have to wait for the halving🤓
And when the bull appears, the bull run will last over months😍
What we can definitely state, we have seen a double bottom. And this was also the case in the #Bitcoin history of previous bottoms.
In fact, we are going through a textbook Wykoff accumulation. And we are in phase D.
Proclaiming a bull run is certainly too premature as we still have time until the next bisection in March 2024!
Who is buying at moment? There are clear anomalies here🤫
Basically, #Bitcoin and other coins are bought with stablecoins.
Here you can see the flow of money in crypto. Stablecoins are the anchor point in the cycle and you need them to buy crypto.
While we saw a clear rise in stablecoins in the bull market 2021, we saw decreae in the recent bear market.
Strikingly, despite the sharp rise in #Bitcoin price by over 55%, there is still no trend reversal in stablecoin supply.
So who is buying the Bitcoins in the market now?
So lets have a closer look on CVD spot market.
Interestingly, the recent #Bitcoin price increase was mainly driven by BUSD (stable coin from PAXUS; US) used to buy Bitcoin, while CVD was negative for ALL other stable coins.
[click on ALT to get to know CVD]
At the same time, #BUSD (stablecoin issued by PAXOS) is far from being the coin with the largest market capitalization, but the one that caused the recent Bitcoin pump.
Thus, one can speak of an over-proportional purchasing power of BUSD in recent weeks.
From this we can conclude the following:
The current #Bitcoin pump is not based on a broad mass of investors, but rather on a small group of BUSD holders. There are currently no signs of new market participants, as was always the case in the last bull run.
Therefore, it is not unlikely that there will be another pullback in the near future.
The market is being flooded with trillions of fresh fiat money, especially from China.
Just as we saw in 2021, central bank liquidity is driving up the price of assets like #BTC
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Halving is done and yet, Bitcoin continues printing red candles. Is this it for this cycle?
A lot of folks are insecure, especially in light of the geopolitical and macroeconomic situation
Let's take a look at some charts and indicators.
A 🧵
1/x
The short answer at the beginning: no, we are not at the end of the bull market.
We believe what we see is a correction which could send us back to the 50ks.
Call it triple top, call it wyckoff distribution. Bitcoin is in correction mode, but...
2/x
... we still believe that this is temporary. In a thread on 2 April, we wrote "double top, decreasing RSI, no bullish divergence in sight. ➡️More downside"
This has been true and so far, BTC stays in this corrective channel
10 facts you need to know about the #Bitcoin ETF hype.
This is not a thread🧵by Stockmoney Lizards🦎
1⃣ What are ETF´s
An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a fund with tradable shares on an exchange. Bitcoin ETFs, specifically, simplify access to Bitcoin in investment portfolios. These funds hold Bitcoin, offering a straightforward way for investors to participate the crypto hype without need of buying real #Bitcoin over a crypto exchange.
2⃣ ETF and the classic financial market
Until now, the crypto market has been decoupled from the traditional financial market. In the past, Bitcoin could only be bought via crypto exchanges.
As we are well aware, Bitcoin's history is marked by scandals and crypto exchange bankruptcies, with the most recent being the #FTX crash. This has repeatedly led to resentment in the past.
Large asset managers and financial institutions in particular have not yet invested in #Bitcoin, especially because of the uncertainty. In its early days, Bitcoin attracted idealists, developers, and visionaries, but not the big money. This will change now.
January - first ETF approval
(the first of several pending applications)
According to Bitwise, the estimated spot bitcoin ETFs could capture 1% of the $7.2 trillion U.S. ETF market within 5 years, or $72 billion in AUM. This is huge for #Bitcoin
March - FED start to cut interest rates
FED keeps interest rates unch for the 3rd meeting and its expected to see three cuts next year. Markets price 5.1 cuts for 2024.
This is why #Ethereum will outperform #Bitcoin till the end of 2025.
A thread by Stockmoney Lizazds🦎
1. Scarcity - Part I
Ethereum became deflationary following the merge/ triple halving in September 2022, marking a fundamental shift in ETH's supply. This deflationary change is new and has not been the case since its release in 2015. And not for the last bull runs 2017 + 2021.
1. Scarcity - Part II (Staking)
The transition from PoW to PoS coincides with a growing share of staked ETH. Currently, over 28.5 million ETH are staked and unavailable on the market. This represents approximately 24% of all ETH, and the ratio is steadily increasing.
Ten reasons why #Bitcoin will go into bull mode at the end of this cycle, as it has done in the past.
A thread by Stockmoney Lizards🦎
1: HODL - Scarcity Factor I
The total supply held by long-term investors has surged to a new all-time high,with nearly 15 million Bitcoin. As more long-term investors hold onto their Bitcoin, the available supply on the market diminishes,driving prices higher. Its that simple.
2: Halving in April 2024 - Scarcity Factor II
The halving event undeniably exerts upward pressure on the price. Halving takes place every four years, diminishing the supply of new bitcoins through a reduction in the block reward. Note, the max supply is capped at 21 million.