I'm so proud to talk about this paper, Exploring Change in Social Connections. It's about how our social connections are changing, and how they may change further in future with new technologies.
What's in here?
First up, how artificial intelligence, including large language models, will be used to detect, recognize, and interpret our emotion and communication patterns. This might alter the way we connect socially, and what emotion and expression mean. #AI#emotionalAI
Second, establishing connection in virtual worlds.
Multiplayer video games, video conferencing, and virtual and (in future) augmented realities are changing how we make and maintain relationships.
The virtual-physical line could blur, changing the nature of our relationships.
Third, social surveillance. Tech that watches and listens to us is everywhere, and we expect to be under surveillance. Expectations here could change who we spend time with, who we trust, what we say, and how we see ourselves. /c @doctorow
@doctorow Fourth, remote work. Relationships and connections that we form at work are an important part of social life. #COVID has accelerated the changing nature of work, along with the type and quality of relationships we form on the job.
...and the latest in our ongoing series of reports on how technologies may change our lives and cause value shifts in this 21st century. horizons.gc.ca/en/2021/08/09/…
@nathaliejacoby1 Everyone answered already, but here goes: 1. Masks were heavily advised against here in Ontario, and in other jurisdictions, very early on in the pandemic, when people were paying attention and learning about this new disease.
That stuck.
@nathaliejacoby1 2. They are an unmitigated cost to households. No one is making them free, so uptake is low.
3. Trump and others came out early against masking as an effective tool.
@nathaliejacoby1 4. Businesses, particularly indoor dining, can't function or can't function well with masks necessary. They pushed hard to get rid of them after they saw high levels of early uptake in many jurisdictions.
@LauraMiers So many folks don't know that
(a) infectiousness is very high on Day 1;
(b) symptoms generally manifest on Days 2, 3, 4; and
(c) RAT sensitivity doesn't pick up until Days 5, 6, 7, and you have to test correctly (mouth, cheeks, throat) and repeatedly.
@LauraMiers Update: after much, much pushback on this chart (and a lot of retweets), I looked much more carefully and with updated data at what we know about COVID's infectiousness, and at RAT's sensitivity curves.
Here's my revised version of that chart:
@LauraMiers What changed is two major things.
First, the infectiousness distribution is delayed by around a day. I used chart-reading software to read the distribution from a published paper on the generation interval of Omicron the first time around.
There's no question but that masking and isolation destroyed influenza worldwide and locally.
Influenza B is extinct in Ontario; influenza A only came back after masking declined in February-April 2022.
@avantgame RSV appears to care more about lockdowns, at least here in Ontario, achieving a test positivity rate of almost 20% at the same time as the Omicron megawave hit in December 2021.
Second graph is the retail consumer volume in Toronto from the Avison Young Vitality Index.
@avantgame Nonetheless, recent data provide a major challenge to the immunity debt hypothesis.
The bounceback that we see around 2022 week 19 is what we would expect from reopening and unmasking.
The recent Ontario explosion in 0-17 hospitalizations needs some other explanatory factor.
I made a chart of the dose-response data from Outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection, but I noticed that the sample size of the higher reinfection groups is smaller than the first infection.
I was wondering if you were working on a follow-up paper with newer data?
@zalaly I suspect that sadly the number of people with COVID reinfections in your sample has likely grown quite a bit since this cohort, and I view the question of whether risk increases quadratically or linearly across multiple infections as the most important research question today.
@zalaly As a Senior Futurist working for the Government of Canada, thinking about what should happen if COVID is allowed to propagate unrestricted for 2, 3, 5 years is very much in my domain of professional interest.
Multinational science Delphi:
- #COVID is airborne (100%);
- indoor areas drive transmission (100%);
- N95 masks help (96%);
- public health pushes false info by denying airborne (90%);
- vax alone can't end COVID (97%);
- false info undermines social cohesion for response (99%)
- endemic disease does not mean lower virulence (96%);
- individual, voluntary measures will not end COVID (96%);
- infection rates increase when gov'ts relax control measures (94%);
- most countries have not protected children from COVID infection (94%);
- limiting hospitalizations instead of cutting COVID transmission increases infections, long COVID and the overall burden of disease (92%);
- standardized COVID case definition needed for children (100%);
- research long-term morbidity by variant needed (99%);