Thread by @VolodyaTretyak

As always an amazing interview with the Chief of GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, from 22.02.2023. He talks about Russian mobilization, Russia's weapon production capabilities, his opinion on Bakhmut, not accidental arsons in Russia, and the near future of the war.
wartranslated.com/forbes-ua-inte…

My translation:

(Interviewer): Russia is currently on the offensive along almost the entire eastern front. Is this the big offensive that has been talked about for the last two months, or should we expect something else from Russia in March?

(Budanov): The big Russian offensive they are aiming for is already underway. But it's going on so well that not everyone even sees it - this is the quality of this offensive.

They have a strategic objective - to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March 31.

(I): Do you think this is the maximum they can announce now? The announcements are usually more ambitious than the real possibilities.

(B): I don't think so. I know so. This is what they dream about, they will not be able to do it.

(I): Western media actively wrote that mass mobilization would begin in Russia in late January or early February. They predicted numbers of up to 500,000 people. Now it doesn't look like it has started.

(B): Who told you that it hasn't? It is hidden.

(I): Is it possible to recruit that many people in secret?

(B): In a country with a population of over 100 million, what's the problem with recruiting 500,000?

(I): What do we know about mobilization in Russia now, since the numbers vary?

(B): During the first open wave of mobilization, they recruited just over 316,000. The question here is: if everything is fine in Russia and they have drafted another 316,000, then why continue the mobilization? It means that everything is not good.

This leads us to a simple conclusion: how many casualties are there in the Russian Federation? This figure is sky-high.

(I): Out of these 316,000, how many are already at the front?

(B): More than 90% were immediately sent. No one trained them - they were sent straight to the front.

(I): No conditional reserve?

(B): A small percentage went to form new units, but the majority went to restore the units that suffered losses, they are all at the front.

(I): There is an assumption that we need to look very closely at the news about mobilization. If Russia succeeds in recruiting 300,000 or 500,000 people, the frontline will become too short for that many people on their side, and then we can expect an offensive on Kyiv.

What do you think about this?

(B): This is questionable logic, I do not share this opinion. An offensive in one direction or another is not limited by the number of people you want or can deploy somewhere.

(I): But this increases Russia's capabilities.

(B): We are in an open war. What is so surprising about this possibility? In addition to the possibility, there is also the reality. The reality is that they are aiming to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March 31.

You can feel the difference between taking Kyiv in three days and reaching these borders someday.

Please switch to the website to see the full version of the interview. This is just a small part. Thanks for reading and please follow and share.

#Ukraine #RussiaUkraineWar #UkrainianArmy