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Radu Hossu 🇹🇩🇺🇦

@RaduHossu

Oct 2

Ukraine continues its kinetic sanctions. The Russians admit: 38% of refining capacity has been shut down.

On September 20, I made a personal analysis based on information from open sources. My estimate at the time was 40%.
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I detailed figures, data, and sources on my substack to visually attest to the destruction. Nothing mattered to the flood of Russian bots and a few dozen real people incapable of reason who threatened me, insulted me, and attacked me in every way possible.

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Yesterday, RBS, a Russian news agency based in Moscow, published a comprehensive analysis stating that 38% of total refining capacity is shut down. The Russians also say that only 70% of this total is due to "Ukrainian drone debris." The rest is due to scheduled repairs and maintenance or other reasons. Should we believe them? I say they are trying to gloss over reality, at least a little.

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Radu Hossu 🇹🇩🇺🇦

@RaduHossu

Sep 20

Ukraine's kinetic sanctions: 40% of Russia's refining capacity affected in August and September!

The campaign of sanctions against Russia imposed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces is working, and even though the number of strikes this month has halved, the affected refining capacity has doubled. Before we get to the effects, here are some details about this campaign, which is at least as effective as SpiderWeb or the destruction of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea:

image source: @Tendar
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Russia has 46 oil refineries, with an estimated annual refining capacity of 316.9 million tons per year. For comparison, Romania has a capacity of 13 million tons per year, Germany 104 million tons per year, Italy 87.1 million tons per year, Austria 10.2 million tons per year, and France 60.4 million tons per year. To match Russia, I would add the UK to the list with 58 million tons per year. So indeed, as John McCain said, "Russia is a refinery masquerading as a country."

Of the 46 refineries, 19 were hit by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. One was hit by the Russian Forces of Corruption in collaboration with the Natural Forces of God (the Omsk Refinery was flooded and damaged after a dam broke on April 5, 2024).
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In August and September alone, Ukraine hit 14 different refineries 21 times (for example, the Saratov refinery was hit three times in those two months). The total refining capacity affected was 126.9 million tons per year. This represents 40.5% of Russia's total annual refining capacity. To give you an idea, this is equivalent to the entire refining capacity of Romania—known for its oil fields used in World War II—Germany—the economic engine of Europe—and Austria—home to the giant OMV—combined. All this capacity in just two months.

What does affected mean? Well, some of the refineries were shut down indefinitely, while others were only temporarily shut down and later resumed operations. That's why we see Ukraine hitting one refinery eight times, as in the case of Ryazan, with an annual refining capacity of 17.1 million tons of crude oil.
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Radu Hossu 🇹🇩🇺🇦

@RaduHossu

Sep 3

A new world is beginning! Are we prepared? Do not just read the headline!

1. The Axis of Evil:

Improperly said, it was born. It had been in the making for some time. A few years ago, I was also talking about the Russia-China-North Korea-Iran as the Axis of Evil. Many, many years ago, serious and respectable analysts were pointing to such a future. That future is now beginning. In Beijing, in addition to the military parade that sought to showcase the scale, range, and modernity of the PLA (People's Liberation Army—i.e., the Chinese Army), China wanted to show something else:

1/

That it is the center of a new political, social, and economic construct that will shape the global future. And it succeeded in doing so. It succeeded in making Kim Jong-Un's diplomatic debut on the international stage, with the North Korean dictator attending such an important event for the first time, having previously only made appearances for bilateral meetings with Xi Jinping, Putin, or Trump.

In the family photo, as the photo where the guests stand on a stepped podium and sit next to each other is called, we also have two former prime ministers of Romania: Adrian Năstase and Viorica Dăncilă. In the bottom row, we have Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin—a war criminal, Kim Jong Un—another bloody criminal, this time only of his own people, and other leaders from Africa and Asia. Europe was represented by Slovakia and Serbia. Another dictator, Erdogan, could not be missing from such an event. The devil is in the details, of course. This bloc is not equal, uniform, or perfectly coordinated either. russia, for example, is a poor vassal to China, doing its dirty work in Ukraine, because it keeps an important part of the Western bloc occupied and stuck in endless bureaucracy and the indecision of weak leaders.

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2. The axis of decline:

Trump has already changed the pH of the United States. At least in terms of foreign policy. But he has also accelerated the erosion of the internal social fabric. The US is a hegemon in moral and cultural decline, unfortunately for all of us who grew up with the image of America as the world's policeman.

Europe, poisoned by russia's hybrid war, is failing to make the leap towards its only salvation: a much better defined form of union of states: the United States of Europe. It is the only long-term salvation. It is not possible for obvious reasons (different cultures, historical wounds that have not yet healed, and the multiple problems of operationalizing such a plan). It is pointless for Mertz to say that "Putin is the greatest war criminal" as long as Slovakia is in the picture meeting with him, Xi Jinping, and Kim Jong Un. It is pointless for Ursula von Der Leyen to talk about common defense if the toxic nationalism fed by Russia divides us more and more every day.

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Radu Hossu 🇹🇩🇺🇦

@RaduHossu

Aug 31

russia officially wants to get *at least to the Danube. On August 30, two days ago, Valri Gherasimov, Chief of Staff of the Russian Army, gave a presentation on the situation on the Ukrainian front, showing a map with the percentages of each Ukrainian region that had been illegally occupied. 1/

What the Romanian and international media failed to notice, but Perun did (search for him on YouTube), was another, much more important map: a map that most likely shows at least part of Russia's intentions: the total occupation not only of the Donetsk and Luhansk (Donbas) and Zaporizhia and Kherson regions east of the Dnieper, but also of three more: Kherson west of the Dnieper, Mykolaiv, and Odesa. 2/

It is no longer a secret that the Russians use symbolism and information they want to make public in such events. This means that what I noticed in the clip was intended for everyone to see: Russia wants to reach the Danube Delta and practically border Romania.

If until now there were only speculations or serious statements (such as those of former President Traian Băsescu) that were ridiculed by many, now we have a map behind the head of the Russian army that shows us how the Kremlin wants Ukraine to be divided. This is clear, indisputable proof of Russia's desire to reach the Danube in order to exert extraordinary economic, military, and political pressure on Romania and NATO.

After this event, which took place two days ago, questions need to be asked, especially for Russia's supporters in Romania/Europe:

- If until now you laughed at those who warned about this objective, cursed and threatened us, now that you have proof, do you still think it is okay to support Russia's narratives?

- If until now the argument that Ukraine and its resistance are directly linked to Romania's and Europe's security and its borders seemed abstract, distant, or perhaps foolish (to you), do you now think that the heroism and sacrifice of the Ukrainians deserve at least a little more respect from you?

- Do you think you will still be able to shout about dredging the Bâstroe Canal, as you wrongly did against Ukraine based on the lies spread in the public sphere by former Romanian Minister of Transport Sorin Grindeanu, and against imperialist Russia, which will feel encouraged and invincible and will obviously ignore you? 3/

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Radu Hossu 🇹🇩🇺🇦

@RaduHossu

Jul 24

Zelenskyy submits a new law that will guarantee the independence of the fight against corruption

Zelenskyy submits a new law that will guarantee the independence of the fight against corruption

1. After the infamous Law 12414, which placed independent anti-corruption institutions under the direct control of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine and thus the Zelenskyy administration, Ukrainians took to the streets in all major cities.

Key points: Ukrainians took to the streets during wartime to protect their democracy, the rule of law, and their European path.

🧵

2. President Zelenskyy announced the following day that he would propose a law (in Ukraine, the president can directly propose laws) to the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's parliament). Yesterday (July 24, 2025), he sent Law 13533 to the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's unicameral parliament), a new law that would restore the independence of these anti-corruption institutions (NABU and SAPO), introducing several changes to their functioning, mainly changes related to ensuring that these institutions will not abuse their powers and will be more difficult for Russia to infiltrate.

What to remember: The president of a country at war with the world's second largest army listened to society and international partners (yes, I know, some would say he was forced by circumstances) and proposed a new law. 2/

3. Independent civil society actors praise the initiative, and NABU issued a press release stating that it believes the new law will restore the independence it needs and lost under Law 12414, and that it participated, alongside SAPO, in drafting the new law.

Key takeaway: Civil society appreciates the new bill, so it is not just a smokescreen. 3/

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Radu Hossu 🇹🇩🇺🇦

@RaduHossu

Jul 23

What is happening in Ukraine? An analysis for those outside Ukraine

1. NABU, SAPO, and Law 12414

Yesterday, Law 12414 was enacted. The law provides for amendments to the functioning of NABU and SAPO, two anti-corruption institutions which, together with the High Anti-Corruption Court (HACC), are part of the architecture for reforming the state through the fight against corruption. How they work is explained on substack so as not to make this text too long: raduhossu dot substack dot com. However, I recommend that you visit substack, because these details will make the difference between falling into one extreme or another (for those who really want to understand the subject and are not just pro-Russian scoundrels):

Law 12414 places NABU and SAPO under the control of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine, who is appointed by the President (the current one is notoriously close to Zelenskyy) and gives him the power to choose which cases go to which prosecutor and whether they fall under SAPO's jurisdiction or not. In practice, this means that the President of Ukraine has the power, with just one phone call, to close a major corruption investigation if those targeted are people close to him.

The law was initiated some time ago by deputies from President Zelenskyy's party, Servants of the People, and the amendments were passed at incredible speed, on the same day they were not only voted on but also approved by President Zelenskyy in what civil society (NGOs, independent media) calls the greatest betrayal of the fight against corruption and the European path since Yanukovych and Euromaidan.
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2. How did we get here?

This year, there have been several events indicating that the Zelenskyy administration is preparing to take a step back from the fight against corruption.

A few months ago, the head of the BES (Economic Security Bureau), another independently run institution with the status of a government agency that investigates cases of financial fraud (a combination of ANAF and DIICOT), came under attack: its director, elected by a special commission comprising a decisive number of members of the international community and civil society with voting rights, was blocked from being appointed. So the person chosen by this commission was blocked and a close associate of the government was appointed in his place.

A few weeks ago, one of Ukraine's most important investigative journalists had his home searched by the SBU under a flimsy pretext after he repeatedly criticized Andrii Yermak, the head of Zelenskyy's office. Vitalii Shanunin is not only an anti-corruption activist, he also works for a government agency that basically develops anti-corruption strategies for Ukraine.

A few weeks ago, NABU also charged Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov with corruption. According to activists and independent media in Ukraine, this is when NABU and SAPO became targets of the Zelenskyy administration and his party, with Andrii Yermak seen by the people as the main culprit.

The reason given for this law is Russian interference in anti-corruption institutions and the slow pace of proceedings. These arguments, put forward by both President Zelenskyy and SBU chief Vitaly Maliuk, are very weak and illogical (there is at least one Russian spy in every institution in Ukraine, but that does not mean that all of them should be placed under the president's control) and only serve to further anger the population and discourage supporters of the Ukrainian people. 2/

3. Consequences and what might happen next?

Firstly, the law could be challenged in the Constitutional Court, but only if there is enough public pressure. Public pressure will be generated, and we will see this tonight. Protests are planned in all major cities in Ukraine. If the law remains in force, it will be a huge step backwards for Ukraine.

Accession to the European Union could be jeopardized because the European Union will not allow Ukraine to join without institutional reforms, especially those related to the rule of law. This law gives ammunition to all Ukraine's detractors, from Viktor Orban to all of Russia's agents of influence, and creates enormous vulnerability for Ukraine. Investors will think twice about investing in Ukraine, even after reconstruction, and this will affect Ukraine's recovery and economic health.

Law 12414 has the potential to bring Russia closer to victory, because confidence in President Zelenskyy will plummet, leading to political vulnerability that can be exploited by anyone from Trump to Putin. This vulnerability comes at the worst possible moment: between increased military support for Ukraine with US involvement and the start of the Battle for Pokrovsk.

Tonight we will see protests in Ukraine again. And that means that democracy is alive, even if Russia and (unfortunately) Ukrainian politics are trying to kill it. 3/

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