Thread by @ArveloaMert

There is an increased disruptive activity in self-proclaimed and Russian-supported #Transnistria and #Moldova. Lets see what happened, what happens now and how it could evolve in military and political terms in near future. Also we have to asses it with the war in #Ukraine.

1) Transnistria was a region within the Moldovan SSR which was heavily Russified during the Soviet Union. After the independence in 1991, tensions between pro-Russian population and Moldovan Government was escalated against a suspicion of possible unification with Romania.

2) Moldova lacked a serious military power in 1992 when a short-war break between pro-Government forces of volunteers and pro-Russian volunteers with Russian military. War freezed in a year and eight months which brought us another frozen conflict in post-Soviet world.

3) Ukraine played an important role in ending this conflict. But not in a way as today, as Ukraine was ruled by Kravchuk Government who is much more pro-Russian. Kyiv Government pushed Moldovans to sign a ceasefire that opened the way for flow of Russian troops as peace mission.

4) The reason of this war is lay behind the geographically weird status of the region. Transnistria was lowland which is normally hard to defend. But region was a surrended by the Dnestr River. Moldovans achieved retake some lands across the river but with support...

5) ... Transnistria achieved to survive via holding bridgeheads. The region was relatively safe until 2014 when Ukraine was a pro-Russian self-heaven. But Euromaiden changed and added additional challenge for the security of the region. Russia use it as a way to...

6) ... control and infiltrate the Ukrainian Odessa and to control the Dnestr River which is an industrial, agricultural and water resource of population in both Moldova and Ukraine. It is also a limitedly navigable river that connects Lviv with Black Sea port of Odessa.

7) After the agreement Russia deployed 1000-1500 soldiers to the region. Today the numbers could be slightly higher. On 17 September 2006, there was an unrecognized referandum in the region where %96 voted to join Russia. Up untiil than tensions continued to spark in the region.

8) Moldova remained as neutral to NATO to prevent any escalations with Russia as there is a huge number of pro-Russian political figures and people. While European Union was much more desired but frequently hampered by pro-Russian population.
euronews.com/2023/02/17/as-…

9) On May 2022, EU announced an increase of military aid to Moldova for a possible 🇷🇺 aggression via Transnistria. Moldova has 8500 personnel combined with 70.000 reserves. Numbers are enough to defend but country has a significant euipment problem.
aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/4/…

10) On February 2023, Moldovan Government claimed that Russia was attempted a coup in the country. The exact background of the move is not clear but the country has significant problem of domestic risks of hybrid campaigns and Moscow-afiliated groups.
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

11) Two days earlier, President Biden announced a clear support to Moldova and its sovereignty. While destabilization attempts, missile strikes, sabotages, cyber attacks, infiltrations and info war was underway in both Transnistria and within Moldova.
reuters.com/world/europe/b…

12) Today Russia claimed that #Ukraine is plotting an act against Transnistria. This declaration was accepted as a pretext for a further Russian move from the region to Ukraine. Moldova denied it immediately. So could Russia open a front from there?
reuters.com/world/europe/m…

13) Transnistria is a highly isolated region and hard to defend without 🇷🇺 troops. Russia has already re-positioned some of its equipment to 🇺🇦. Any military move without supplies from there would be a both political and military disaster for both 🇷🇺 and its allies in Tiraspol.

14) Russia could pack the region with naval infantry or VDVs or via reserves with use of supply and landing ships. But both forces are, now, busy and performing terrible in Ukraine while any attempt to attack Odessa (Zatoka) would be a logistical nightmare.

15) Any military to Moldova would be also problematic in men power and logistis while also create a further tension with another member state Romania who has long traditional and historical ties with Moldova. It would be a suicial move when compared with hybrid war.

15) Absurd but as 🇷🇺 argued, could 🇷🇺 conduct an offensive to Transnistria? No way. 🇺🇦 forces in Odessa are highly garnizoned and actively worked on defensive capacity and need extensive resources to defend the region. Making a military move to Transnistria would be stupidity.

16) Than what are Russia's main aims?
a) It can be a false-flag operation to re-direct the West's and Ukraine's focus on defence of the East to Moldovan border.
b) A possible move to make limited infiltration and sabotage attempts to Odessa region and Moldova.

18) c) On Feb. 8, Moldova banned any seccessionism attempts in country. On Feb. 21, Putin revoked 2012 decree that 'respected Moldovan sovereignty'. This could be a false flag pretext to annex the region to Russia.
balkaninsight.com/2023/02/08/mol…

19) It could divert the attention and bring political propaganda to Putin's Government. But this move is still risky as giving blank check to Tiraspol could trigger a conflict which Russia can't control and can put Russian troops in risk while push Moldova more pro-Western.

20) So what should be done? Both NATO and EU should assist Moldova more in military, economic and political aspect to strengthen this fragile state. Moldovan and Ukrainian Government should start common scheme to counter Russian hybrid warfare. Romania should take the role...

21) ... that Poland take in the Ukrainian case. Bucherest Government should sychronize the relationship between Moldova and EU+NATO with a sense of responsibility. This include diplomatic, military and political support and communication midllemenship.

END)But they should be careful in drawing the line of limitations. Both countries should focus on being two different single political entities to protect the sovereignty, unity and prosperity of Moldova. Any move to fuel Russian hybrid tactics would backfire in this environment.

Bonus) This thread can change due to on going info-ops in Twitter. Could #Ukraine really support #Moldova in Transnistria with military means? They have the capacity and Russians have a logistics problem. But such a move is so risky if not well-planned. Expeditions are dangerous.

Bonus 2) In terms of risks the best example is Nicias's expedition to Sicily to improve Athenian status in Peleponnesian War. A country needs working logistics, clear intel picture and a post-war plan. For Moldova, I don't know how many of these conditions Ukraine achieved now.

Bonus 3) #Ukraine has no luxory to remain in #Transnistria long as making expeditionary missions in an open conflict is a gravely risky. #Moldova’s preparation for any possible offensive and enduring control of a disputed region is unclear.

Bonus 4) The region is isolated from the world so intelligence picture could also not be clear. Ukraine could move to control the Russian ammunition depot in Transnistria but the events in follow-up will be crucial. My predictions could change as I have no clear picture either.

A rolled down version of the thread on Moldova and Transnistria issue for those who have hardships with threads.
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1628880…