Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Feb 26, 2023 19 tweets 11 min read Read on X
Eastern #Ukraine: #Donetsk Oblast

Russian forces made marginal territorial gains around #Bakhmut and #Avdiivka and continued to conduct ground attacks across the Donetsk Oblast front line. 🧵(1/20)

isw.pub/UkrWar022523
2/ #Bakhmut:

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut), Berkhivka (4km north of Bakhmut), Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut), and Pivnichne (21km southwest of Bakhmut).
3/ Yevgeny #Prigozhin claimed that his #Wagner Group fighters captured #Yahidne (2km north of Bakhmut) and posted a picture of Wagner fighters posing near the settlement’s welcome sign that was later geolocated, indicating that Wagner fighters likely captured the settlement.
4/ Russian sources continued to claim that #WagnerGroup fighters captured #Berkhivka and completed clearing the settlement, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims.
5/ Russian sources provided conflicting claims about gains near Dubovo-Vasylivka (6km NW of Bakhmut): an occupation official claimed that it was captured; a prominent milblogger claimed Russian forces only entered it; another milblogger said fighting was ongoing on its outskirts.
7/ Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces destroyed a dam north of #Bakhmut and flooded the Stupky area of Bakhmut in order to slow Russian advances from the north, although ISW has seen no visual evidence of these claims.
8/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner fighters conducted assaults near Zaliznianske (11km north of Bakhmut), Vasyukivka (14km north of Bakhmut), Rozdolivka (17km northeast of Bakhmut), and Fedorivka (18km north of Bakhmut).
9/ Geolocated footage published on February 24 indicates that Russian forces likely made marginal advances in eastern #Bakhmut.
10/ The Ukrainian Border Guards Service reported that the Russians have committed their most combat-ready forces to Bakhmut and that there are many Wagner Group convict personnel around the city.
11/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in the southern part of #Bakhmut and that Wagner fighters conducted ground attacks near Chasiv Yar (12km west of Bakhmut) and Dyliivka (15km southwest of Bakhmut). isw.pub/UkrWar022523
12/ #Avdiivka - Donetsk City

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the western outskirts of #Donetsk City on February 25.
13/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near #Avdiivka and within 36km southwest of Avdiivka near Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Marinka, and Novomykhailivka.
14/ Geolocated footage published on February 25 indicates that Russian forces likely made marginal advances southwest of #Avdiivka and near Pobieda (32km southwest of Avdiivka).
15/ Western #Donetsk

Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast on February 25. Representative of the Ukrainian Tavriisk operational direction Oleksiy Dmytrashkivyskyi reported that Russian forces conducted attacks near #Vuhledar.
16/ According to Dmytrashkivyskyi Russian forces have not changed their tactics near #Vuhledar but there has been an increase in Russian forces conducting assaults without armored support...
17/ ... and even some instances of armored personnel carriers driving infantry to the frontline for dismounted assaults and then withdrawing.
18/ Dymtrashkivyskyi also reported that Russian forces transferred an unspecified number of personnel by bus from #Melitopol to the area to replenish the 155th and 40th Naval Infantry Brigades.
19/ ISW has previously reported that 43 buses of #Wagner fighters arrived in #Melitopol possibly representing one or two battalions’ worth of personnel, and Russian forces may have since transferred this group of Wagner personnel to the #Vuhledar area.
20/ ISW has not observed any visual confirmation of #Wagner fighters operating in the #Vuhledar area, and Russian forces could also have transferred mobilized personnel to replenish the severely degraded naval infantry formations. isw.pub/UkrWar022523

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Institute for the Study of War

Institute for the Study of War Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TheStudyofWar

Oct 19
NEW: South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported that North Korea transferred roughly 1,500 North Korean special forces to eastern Russia, where they are reportedly training before deploying to participate in Russia's war against Ukraine. 🧵(1/7)Image
Image
Image
Image
2/ The NIS stated on October 18 that seven Russian Pacific Fleet ships transported roughly 1,500 North Korean special forces from Chongjin, Hamhung, and Musudan in North Korea to Vladivostok, Russia between October 8 and 13 and that North Korea will send a second batch of military personnel to Russia soon.
3/ The NIS stated that North Korean servicemembers are currently stationed in Vladivostok, Ussuriysk, Khabarovsk, and Blagoveshchensk in eastern Russia. The NIS stated that the Russian military has issued the North Korean personnel Russian uniforms, weapons, and fake identification cards claiming that the North Koreans are residents of the Sakha and Buryatia republics.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 15
NEW: Moldova stands to advance its path towards European integration in the upcoming October 2024 presidential election and referendum, but will likely remain a battleground state into the 2030s as EU membership negotiations continue. (🧵1/6) Image
2/ The possible reelection of pro-Western Moldovan President Maia Sandu and passing of the pro-EU referendum in October 2024 will not set Moldova's EU path in stone.
3/ The Kremlin has recently been trying to sabotage Moldova’s EU accession and destabilize Moldovan democracy. The Kremlin is unlikely to cease its influence operations and may instead increase its efforts to reverse pro-EU trends in the coming decade.
Read 6 tweets
Oct 14
NEW: Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov arrived in the People's Republic of China (PRC) for an official visit on October 14, highlighting continued Russia-PRC defense cooperation against the backdrop of bilateral naval exercises in the Pacific Ocean. (1/4)Image
Image
Image
Image
2/ Russian forces struck civilian vessels docked at Ukrainian ports for the fourth time since October 5, part of an apparent Russian strike campaign targeting port areas to undermine Ukraine's grain corridor, spoil international support for Ukraine, and push Ukraine into premature negotiations.
3/ Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on October 11 that sources within the Russian Presidential Administration stated that the Kremlin's "Time of Heroes" program, which places veterans of the war in Ukraine into government positions after returning to Russia, is meant to increase the popularity of contract military service and boost recruitment.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 12
NEW: Russian forces intensified their ongoing effort to dislodge Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast around the evening of Oct. 10 and have recently advanced further into the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast while reportedly eliminating almost the entirety of the smaller Ukrainian salient in Glushkovsky Raion. (1/4)Image
2/ Russian forces reportedly simultaneously intensified counterattacks in Glushkovksy Raion, on the left flank of the main Ukrainian salient in Korenevsky Raion, and on the right flank of the main Ukrainian salient in Sudzhansky Raion on the evening of October 10.
3/ Intensified Russian counterattacks likely aim to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast before poor weather conditions in Fall 2024 and early Winter 2024-2025 begin to constrain battlefield maneuver. Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 10
NEW: Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Shahed drone storage facility in Krasnodar Krai and an ammunition warehouse in the Republic of Adygea on October 9 and 10. 🧵(1/7)Image
Image
2/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 9 that Ukrainian naval forces and Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) struck a Russian Shahed drone storage facility near Oktyabrsky, Krasnodar Krai and that Russian forces stored around 400 Shahed drones at the facility
3/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 10 that drone operators from the SBU, Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), and Ukraine's Special Operations Forces (SSO) struck an ammunition warehouse at the Khanskaya Air Base in the Republic of Adygea.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 9
NEW: The Russian military command has likely ordered Russian forces to conduct a relatively high tempo of mechanized assaults in Ukraine to pursue significant tactical advances before muddy ground conditions this fall constrain mechanized maneuver. (1/3)Image
Image
Image
Image
2/ Poor weather conditions in Fall 2024 and early Winter 2024-2025 will likely complicate and constrain both mechanized and infantry maneuver, but Russian forces may seek to maintain their consistent offensive pressure in eastern Ukraine despite these difficulties.
3/ ISW has not yet observed wide reporting that muddy terrain is constraining mechanized maneuver on any sector of the front in Kursk Oblast or in Ukraine, however.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 9, 2024: isw.pub/UkrWar100924Image
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(