🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻c 💰
Macro Review 2/26/23
🧵 1/8
If the #macro picture has been unclear, it has just come clearly into focus.
I am going to keep it simple this week -
crash risk is rising ⚠️🚩
Let’s dig into the market 🧮!
Macro Review 2/26/23
🧵 1/8
If the #macro picture has been unclear, it has just come clearly into focus.
I am going to keep it simple this week -
crash risk is rising ⚠️🚩
Let’s dig into the market 🧮!
2a/8
It’s all about the $USD 🎳
On 2/10, we got a confirmed buy signal in the USD along with sell signals in $SPX and $TLT
It’s all about the $USD 🎳
On 2/10, we got a confirmed buy signal in the USD along with sell signals in $SPX and $TLT
2b/8
Since then, we got a hot #CPI reading on 2/14 with #CoreCPI to +5.4% and on Friday 2/24 #CorePCE came in ♨️ at +4.7%
Chart: Core PCE for January 2023
Since then, we got a hot #CPI reading on 2/14 with #CoreCPI to +5.4% and on Friday 2/24 #CorePCE came in ♨️ at +4.7%
Chart: Core PCE for January 2023
2c/8
That was a enough to catalyze a big move in the $USD +1.33% (w) and +3.18% (mtd)
$USD 🔺 = 🎳
Chart: The ’tell’ was a week ago with a confirmed close above the 50% fib retracement level
That was a enough to catalyze a big move in the $USD +1.33% (w) and +3.18% (mtd)
$USD 🔺 = 🎳
Chart: The ’tell’ was a week ago with a confirmed close above the 50% fib retracement level
3/8
$TNX transitioned to ♉️ trend on 02/21, climbed above the critical 3.91% level and closed at 3.949%
$TNX 🔺 is NOT ♉️ for risk assets
$TNX transitioned to ♉️ trend on 02/21, climbed above the critical 3.91% level and closed at 3.949%
$TNX 🔺 is NOT ♉️ for risk assets
4/8
Indeed, $SPX -2.67% (w) with 🐻 Trend 🚨 gave up the critical 4,000 support level.
Chart: $SPX - a quick move ↘️ to the 3765 - 3810 range cannot be ruled out. #CrashRiskRising
Indeed, $SPX -2.67% (w) with 🐻 Trend 🚨 gave up the critical 4,000 support level.
Chart: $SPX - a quick move ↘️ to the 3765 - 3810 range cannot be ruled out. #CrashRiskRising
5/8
Another ominous tell - $VIX with a ♉️ Trend 🚨
Still priced cheaply relative to the risk
Another ominous tell - $VIX with a ♉️ Trend 🚨
Still priced cheaply relative to the risk
6/8
$DAX, which has been amazingly resilient and still ♉️ trend, with a SELL 🚨 this week.
Chart: DAX -1.76% (w) +4.6% (T)
$DAX, which has been amazingly resilient and still ♉️ trend, with a SELL 🚨 this week.
Chart: DAX -1.76% (w) +4.6% (T)
7a/8
$WHEAT -5.73% (w) and $CORN -4.21% (w) were enough to trigger a $DBA SELL 🚨
Chart: $DBA remains ♉️ trend, but perhaps not for long.
$WHEAT -5.73% (w) and $CORN -4.21% (w) were enough to trigger a $DBA SELL 🚨
Chart: $DBA remains ♉️ trend, but perhaps not for long.
7b/8
Your favorite risk indicator, $BTC is on the verge of a SELL 🚨
Chart: $BTC -4.52% (w)
Your favorite risk indicator, $BTC is on the verge of a SELL 🚨
Chart: $BTC -4.52% (w)
7c/8
$WTIC -0.3 (w) is still chopping around in a tight range between 72-82 🐻
$WTIC -0.3 (w) is still chopping around in a tight range between 72-82 🐻
7d/8
Is there a Doctor in the house?
$COPPER -3.89% (w) is confirming trouble ahead for the world economy
Is there a Doctor in the house?
$COPPER -3.89% (w) is confirming trouble ahead for the world economy
8/8
All that is to say that it is time to take cover 🌪️, if you have not already done so
#CrashRiskRising
Add to long $USD on pullbacks
Add to 🩳 on any bounces
$VIXM remains cheap - get some 🌊
$BILS at 5% yield - why wait?
⚠️🚩 and have a super profitable 💰 week!
All that is to say that it is time to take cover 🌪️, if you have not already done so
#CrashRiskRising
Add to long $USD on pullbacks
Add to 🩳 on any bounces
$VIXM remains cheap - get some 🌊
$BILS at 5% yield - why wait?
⚠️🚩 and have a super profitable 💰 week!
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