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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Mar 2

#Moldova: A process of de-Sovietization with regard to national identity is accelerating. The ruling party started the legislative process to change the name of the language in the Constitution (Art. 13) from Moldovan (or state language) to Romanian. The entire body of⤵️

primary and secondary legislation will be subject to the same process. This decision is based on a 2013 ruling by the Constitutional Court recognizing the primacy of the Declaration of Independence (1991) over the current Constitution (1994). While this decision will be the⤵️

first step in a long road to clarify the identity cleavage in Moldova, there are three risks that need to be seriously considered and addressed: 1) According to the law, the Constitution can be changed by 2/3 votes. in parliament The ruling party has⤵️

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Mar 2

#Critical_Infrastructure: Iran is pushing to launch the Nakhichivan (Azerbaijan)-Armenia-Georgia rail link to Russia. This would include the reopening of the Julfa-Nakhchivan connection, built in 1941 but inoperable since the collapse of the USSR. In addition to the Armenian⤵️

security concerns related to Azerbaijan, there are financial aspects that need to be overcome. The Soviets built the initial railway through Abkhazia, which is now de facto controlled by Russia after the 2008 war against Georgia. Therefore, Georgia would agree to be a part of⤵️

this project if a completely new connection to Russia is built, which is very expensive. In 2000s, Russia, India and Iran wanted to build the North-South International Transport Corridor to connect with the EU.⤵️

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Mar 1

#Russia: Membership in the Eurasian Union is a channel to build and intensify dependencies with China. Last year, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia's trade with China grew in total by more than $9 billion. The Eurasian Union and China seek to increase trade, including⤵️

through the digitization of transport corridors. Through the members of the Eurasian Union, Russia can diversify its economic ties with China. With the new attempts by the EU and the US⤵️

to strengthen the presence in Armenia and Central Asia, Russia could use the Eurasian Union to counter the West and maintain the attractiveness of the organization by pivoting it towards China and Global South.

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Mar 1

#Risk_Management: Seismologists warn that Istanbul (16 million inhabitants) is doomed to suffer major earthquakes (the last time in 1999). We deal with a "known unknown", when risks are on the horizon but not yet on the radar to predict escalation. The recent earthquakes⤵️

caused $34 billion worth of economic losses in Turkey and more than 50,000 deaths in total in Syria. To mitigate the consequences of a natural disaster that will hit Istanbul, the authorities and the population are working on 100,000 seismic resilience assessments of buildings.⤵️

This is better than nothing, but with a highly seismic environment, the Turkish authorities overlooked the need to develop a powerful audit of the old and new civil infrastructure. It seems that the disaster preparedness of state agencies and the population should be reviewed.

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Feb 28

https://twitter.com/DionisCenusa/status/1630543916440207361

#Ukraine_Moldova: Meanwhile, Russia is adding “more gasoline to the fire” by announcing that Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria will hold training starting in March for 3 months (until June). This means only one thing: more uncertainty about the ability of decision makers to⤵️

https://twitter.com/DionisCenusa/status/1630543916440207361

keep a cool head. My recommendations (to start with) are as follows: 1) creation of an international crisis unit involving Moldova, Ukraine, OSCE, EU, UK and US (2+4 format) to coordinate actions and prevent escalation ; 2) Synchronize strategic communication and downplay⤵️

disinformation involving Russia or its allies in Chisinau and Tiraspol; 3) Permanent assessment of the risk environment and multilateral intelligence exchange (2+4 format)⤵️

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Feb 28

#Ukraine_Moldova: Strengthening Ukraine's defense capabilities against threats originating from the Transnistrian region is logical and correct from the point of view of risk management. This doesn’t mean that Kyiv is interested in attacking the breakaway region of Moldova.⤵️

There are costs about which I commented on other occasions: 1) If Ukraine decides to organize an intervention against Transnistria in the absence of a well-founded reason, this could have indirect effects in Moldova (refugees, explosion of the military depot in Transnistria,⤵️

risks to energy supply, etc. ). Transnistrian elites benefit from neutrality and the Moldovan authorities need stability to avoid public disorder and subversive actions by Russia; 2) If Ukraine enters Transnistria to confront Russian and separatist forces without a clear⤵️

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