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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Mar 2

#Moldova: A process of de-Sovietization with regard to national identity is accelerating. The ruling party started the legislative process to change the name of the language in the Constitution (Art. 13) from Moldovan (or state language) to Romanian. The entire body of⤵️

primary and secondary legislation will be subject to the same process. This decision is based on a 2013 ruling by the Constitutional Court recognizing the primacy of the Declaration of Independence (1991) over the current Constitution (1994). While this decision will be the⤵️

first step in a long road to clarify the identity cleavage in Moldova, there are three risks that need to be seriously considered and addressed: 1) According to the law, the Constitution can be changed by 2/3 votes. in parliament The ruling party has⤵️

Read 11 tweets

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Mar 1

#Crisis_Management: Russia's energy-related sabotaging tactics have failed against the EU. The weaponization of Europe’s dependency on Russia has did not produce the desired results for Moscow. The de-electrification of Ukraine that Russia sought to achieve by destroying⤵️

critical energy infrastructure is also not working. For more than 2 weeks Ukraine can produce and import enough power to keep the lights on. Over almost 5 months, Russia launched 255 missiles (and UAVs), of which 214 hit objects in the Ukrainian electrical system.⤵️

The mobilization of local specialists and the technical (and military) support received mainly from EU countries helped Ukraine to replace the destroyed infrastructure and protect it against further Russian air attacks.

Read 4 tweets

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Mar 1

#Russia: Membership in the Eurasian Union is a channel to build and intensify dependencies with China. Last year, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia's trade with China grew in total by more than $9 billion. The Eurasian Union and China seek to increase trade, including⤵️

through the digitization of transport corridors. Through the members of the Eurasian Union, Russia can diversify its economic ties with China. With the new attempts by the EU and the US⤵️

to strengthen the presence in Armenia and Central Asia, Russia could use the Eurasian Union to counter the West and maintain the attractiveness of the organization by pivoting it towards China and Global South.

Read 4 tweets

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Mar 1

#Risk_Management: Seismologists warn that Istanbul (16 million inhabitants) is doomed to suffer major earthquakes (the last time in 1999). We deal with a "known unknown", when risks are on the horizon but not yet on the radar to predict escalation. The recent earthquakes⤵️

caused $34 billion worth of economic losses in Turkey and more than 50,000 deaths in total in Syria. To mitigate the consequences of a natural disaster that will hit Istanbul, the authorities and the population are working on 100,000 seismic resilience assessments of buildings.⤵️

This is better than nothing, but with a highly seismic environment, the Turkish authorities overlooked the need to develop a powerful audit of the old and new civil infrastructure. It seems that the disaster preparedness of state agencies and the population should be reviewed.

Read 5 tweets

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Feb 28

https://twitter.com/DionisCenusa/status/1630543916440207361

#Ukraine_Moldova: Meanwhile, Russia is adding “more gasoline to the fire” by announcing that Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria will hold training starting in March for 3 months (until June). This means only one thing: more uncertainty about the ability of decision makers to⤵️

https://twitter.com/DionisCenusa/status/1630543916440207361

keep a cool head. My recommendations (to start with) are as follows: 1) creation of an international crisis unit involving Moldova, Ukraine, OSCE, EU, UK and US (2+4 format) to coordinate actions and prevent escalation ; 2) Synchronize strategic communication and downplay⤵️

disinformation involving Russia or its allies in Chisinau and Tiraspol; 3) Permanent assessment of the risk environment and multilateral intelligence exchange (2+4 format)⤵️

Read 5 tweets

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Feb 28

#Ukraine_Moldova: Strengthening Ukraine's defense capabilities against threats originating from the Transnistrian region is logical and correct from the point of view of risk management. This doesn’t mean that Kyiv is interested in attacking the breakaway region of Moldova.⤵️

There are costs about which I commented on other occasions: 1) If Ukraine decides to organize an intervention against Transnistria in the absence of a well-founded reason, this could have indirect effects in Moldova (refugees, explosion of the military depot in Transnistria,⤵️

risks to energy supply, etc. ). Transnistrian elites benefit from neutrality and the Moldovan authorities need stability to avoid public disorder and subversive actions by Russia; 2) If Ukraine enters Transnistria to confront Russian and separatist forces without a clear⤵️

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