It is #lianghui day, or in other words, the opening session of #China's National People's Congress (#NPC). Later today I will be live tweeting premier Li Keqiang's government work report and commenting on it along the way.
For now though, it is @MeetThePress with Chinese Characteristics for the New Era:
This morning will be Li Keqiang's last Government Work Report, his 10th. Li will retire from his post, and be replaced by Li Qiang, the new #2 in the party hierarchy of the Communist Party of China. Below last year's report.
Part of the NPC folklore is to get your hands on the Government Work Report, the Planning Report and the Budget Report. in the old days, you had to physically go to the Great Hall of the People to get a copy (and scan it and send the mega-files around). Nowadays, electronic
copies are available, though it is still a bit of a mystery to me how exactly the distribution is handled. Apparently, it is @XHNews that distributes it, and I welcome any help from Xinhua (and anybody else) to get a copy.
Besides the usual reports, the focus will be the change in political leadership. There is little doubt that CPC general secretary will get a third term as president of the PRC, and that Li Qiang will succeed Li Keqiang as premier. Also practically assured are Ding Xuexiang as
executive vice premier, and He Lifang as vice premier in charge of the economy, succeeding Liu He. There are still some questions on the composition of the economic management team, including the leadership (governor and party secretary) of the central bank (PBC) and the
Minister of Finance. The latter two attract much international attention, as the PBC governor and the Minister of Finance often represent the government in international economic meetings, but in the Chinese hierarchy, they are less prominent than the political leadership.
The @CGTNOfficial coverage is a few moments ahead of the CCTV (domestic coverage). So I will largely follow CGTN
Li Keqiang (LKQ) praises the COVID response, and the measures to stabilize the economy. GDP growth 3 percent, 12 million urban jobs created, government deficit 2.8 percent of GDP.
The government stimulated effective demand. Consumer spending was hit hard. Investment in infrastructure the main driver of growth at 9.2 percent (supported by 2 stimulus packages).
Global inflation rose to a rapid high, so it was not easy to keep prices stable. We expanded the scope of the funds for the wellbeing of people. we provided total support of RMB 67bn to people in need (this is 0.006 percent of GDP).
LKQ reiterates the "guidance of the 19th and 20th party congress" develop a new pattern of development. GDP over the past 5 years was 5.2 percent, 6.2 percent over the past 10 years. Grain output stable at 650mn tons.
LKQ repeats the 100 million out of poverty, resolution of absolute poverty in China. R&D now 2.5 percent of GDP (up form 2.1 percent 5 years ago).
LKQ says that the urban population is now 65.2 percent, but some 20 percentage points does not have urban hukou, so is still semi-permanent. Energy consumption per unit of GDP dropped by 8 percentage point (over the past 5 years?). Health insurance now covers 1,05 billion pppl.
On Covid "it has not been an easy journey" but the Chinese people have fought a decisive victory over great challenges.
We avoided a deluge of strong stimulus policy, we kept the government deficit at 3 percent (realistically, it is well over 10 percent if one takes all government and quasi-government finances into account, according to the @imf).
Central transfers to local government is now over 70 percent of total spending. RMB exchange rate fluctuated with greater flexibility without major downsides.
LKQ reports on the major tax reductions in taxes and social security premiums (which have been undermining government revenues, a challenge that China needs to address in the coming few years).
LKQ elaborates on the poverty reduction policies of the past. "we have consolidated our efforts to ensure people will not return to poverty.
On reforms: we continue to reform the organization of government. we have continued to give more room to markets, have shortened the negative list by 64 percent.
Breaking: the government report says, according to the @NYT that the growth target for 2023 is 5 percent.
LKQ deliberates on the measures to increase consumption, "people-centered" development, regional development, the new urbanization development and the principle that "housing is for living, not speculation"
We remain committed to opening up. We pursued a higher standard import and exports. We sped up customs clearance and reduced tariffs form 9.8 to 7.2 percent. Established several free trade areas, including Hainan island.
Strengthened environmental management and low carbon development. Air quality was good in 86 percent of the days in urban areas. We achieved a reduction in energy reduction and made progress in our plans to reduce carbon intensity.
Increase spending on education, now >5 percent of GDP. almost 60 percent of students now pursue tertiary education (university and technical and vocational).
The "around 5 percent" growth is a positive in my view. It is not too ambitious given the expected rebound in consumption, and would provide some room for reforms and reduction in debt levels--both are urgently needed to ensure longer term growth rates of about 5 percent.
Li Keqiang reports that governance and transparency has improved. Many would see that differently, including the @FT : ft.com/content/43bea2…
"We established effective governance over HK and Macau." We also conducted effective major power diplomacy"
Li Keqiang expresses thanks and appreciation to the Chinese people, to HK and Macau people, and to governments and people of other countries for their understanding during difficult times.
Some local governments go against the will of the people, there is still corruption in local governments, and we need to do everything to maintain the trust fo the people.
Now on to the future. Guidance of the party, XJP thoughts, New Development Philosophy etc etc.
Main targets for 2023: growth: around 5 percent; new urban jobs: 12million; unemployment around 5.5 percent; CPI inflation around 3 percent; growth in personal income in line with GDP growth; grain >650 million tons.
Developing domestic demand as first priority. Supporting public and private sector (the "two establishes"); attract more FDI, also in services. Ensure national treatment for foreign companies. Preventing and diffusing major economic risk-guard against financial risk.
Ensure food security, support grain production. Support green development. Support government living standards, more balance with rural areas, support for education, culture, et.
These major priorities are not new, but it is noteworthy that the "common prosperity" agenda again is not mentions (yet).
He is done already. Even shorter than last year!
China's main targets in perspective:
So a relatively modest growth target, but a more ambitious urban employment target. this probably reflect the concern with youth unemployment and the rising unemployment among university graduates.
Party time this morning: The Communist Party of China (CPC) kicks off its 20th National Party Congress (二十大) today with 2296 delegates in the great hall of the people in Beijing. On the program this morning: the General Secretary's report to the Congress.
I will be watching from Singapore, and will live tweet some of Xi Jinping's speech and comment on it as it happens.
China’s transition to the committed carbon neutrality will require decarbonization at a lower income level and
at a faster pace than other major economies.
At the same time, China must succeed, as it is now by far the largest greenhouse gas emitter, and its per capita emission levels is considerably higher than the EU, Japan, and other comparators.
Fortunately, China can succeed, and at surprisingly low costs. Simulations suggest that the net zero by 2060 and peak carbon by 2030 is feasible, and will cost relatively little in terms on GDP. Model-based simulations suggest cumulative GDP losses/gains of between...
The government is aiming for a RMB 1 trillion bailout of the property sector. Aside from the good questions raised in this article, the bigger question is whether this will only worsen the incentives in the property sector. If everybody gets a bailout--developers, buyers, banks
--this risks perpetuating the misallocation of capital that has been plaguing China for some years now. Property and infrastructure have accounted for a growing share of total investments in China, which has been a key cause of the decline in productivity during the past decade.
Furthermore, China’ ageing demographics suggest that the heydays of its property construction boom are over, which may be a major underlying problem in China’s property market.
@Noahpinion@adam_tooze Many thanks for @Noahpinion's reply and great additions to this debate. Obviously, how fast China can grow is important--for China, for the world, and for US-China competition--so getting this right is Some of Noah's remarks will need more work, but let me give some 1/n
@Noahpinion@adam_tooze reactions here. First, at the risk of sounding like a cop-out, I do not necessarily see my "comprehensive reform scenario" as the most likely, so I am not necessarily an optimist. True, I would want China to pursue a number of these reforms, but am not at all sure it will.
@Noahpinion@adam_tooze Second, on demographics, I agree that (i) there are people beyond retirement age that are working, probably more in China than in high income countries--simply because the pension system for many provides only minimal benefits; and (ii) it will be hard to get people back to work
I had a great time presenting at the @FairbankCenter last night on the topic "How Fast Can #China Grow?" Thanks to Winnie Yip for hosting and moderating and to @YashengHuang and @WilliamHOverhol for their great comments.
China has set itself ambitious goals for the "New Era." President Xi Jinping's 2035 target implies a growth rate of some 4.8% per year on average. The 2050 goals suggests it wants to be the largest economy in the world by then-a position it had until 1870, when the US took over
Of course, in comparable prices, China is already the largest economy in the world.