[ Analysis ] 3 weak spots of Ukraine's Avdiivka Front that can cause operational encirclement

#War #Military #UkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #UkraineRussia #RussianInvasion #UkraineRussianWar #RussianUkrainianWar

Russian forces are currently stepping up their Avdiivka Offensive, where OSINT reports bigger and heavier bombs being used on the city targets.
Russian forces are also attacking across the entire front, from Pervomaiske all the way to Avdiivka itself on the western flank, and from Kamyanka all the way to Novokalynove on the northern flank.
Interestingly, Avdiivka, despite its fortress city nickname, have extremely soft underbelly - behind the heavily defended lines, are very limited resupply/communications roads.
Losing 2 of the junctions, at Ocheretyne and Orlivka could mean operational encirclement of Avdiivka city itself.

Watch the entire video for the full Situation Report (SITREP).

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More from @DefensePolitics

Mar 8
Lets write a short thread on the multi-facet geopolitical reality of the Ukraine War.

Prior to 2014, Ukraine is a 50-50 country. Half the people are pro-west; half are pro-russia. The president then was pro-russian voted in with 90% votes in the donbass region.
Overthrow him without due process, what do you think the regions who voted him with 90% votes gonna think or do?

The violence at maidan may or may not be instigated by the west; but regardless, that happened. and used as an excuse to overthrow the president.

Anarchy.
Russia's only western warm naval base is in Crimea, and it is leased to them due to soviet era politics where Crimea was cut away from Russia to give to Ukraine to strengthen Ukraine for internal political reasons.

Russia CANNOT afford to lose the port

Russia invaded/annexed it
Read 16 tweets
Mar 7
[ Battle of Bakhmut ] Ukraine to STAY & FIGHT for Bakhmut; Zelenskyy throwing Generals under the bus

#War #Military #UkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #UkraineRussia #RussianInvasion #UkraineRussianWar #RussianUkrainianWar

In a curious turn of event, Zelenskyy puts out a very public video, claiming that he accepted his generals' decision to stay and fight for Bakhmut; instead of the tactical/organised withdrawal that is reportedly underway.
This could either be Zelenskyy throwing the generals under the bus; or perhaps the generals indeed is responding to the Wagner PMC's ammunition woes; to ride on the effectivenss of the counteroffensives thus far, to retake the surrounding regions of Bakhmut.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 5
Ukraine counterattack to cover tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut - [ Ukraine SITREP ] Day 374 (4/3)

#War #Military #UkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #UkraineRussia #RussianInvasion #UkraineRussianWar #RussianUkrainianWar

Mass Ukrainian withdrawal reported from the central and western districts of Bakhmut, and the withdrawal conducted along the country roads between Khromove and Ivanivske. Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 10
[ Ukraine SITREP ] Day 351 (9/2): Russia captured Dvorichne and Horobivka in the Kupyansk Offensive

#War #Military #UkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianInvasion #UkraineRussianWar #RussianUkrainianWar

Russian forces captured Dvorichne and Horobivka in the Kupyansk Front, as the Russian forces continue the offensive with fighting reported at Hryanykivka, Masyutivka and Synkivka.
Russian forces also seemed to have captured most of the forestry south of Kreminna with the frontline aligned to around Bilohorivka (Luhansk) to Kuzmyne. Fighting continues in the Serebryanske forestry, Dibrova and east of Nevske.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 9
[ Bakhmut Offensive ] Bigger & more aggressive pincer developing ard Bakhmut City | Updated Analysis

#War #Military #UkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianInvasion #UkraineRussianWar #RussianUkrainianWar

Update from Bakhmut Front: With the developing situation and realities on the ground, particularly on the breakthrough west of Blahodatne and fighting reported near Chasiv Yar, west of Ivanivske - they might be targeting a bigger pincer movement that we had previously anticipated
If Ukrainian lines breaks at Orikhovo-Vasylivka / Dubovo-Vasylivka, the entire NW retreat routes through the farmlands in the event of the loss of the final safe route out of Bakhmut City via Khromove will be threatened.
Read 4 tweets

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