Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 7 7 tweets 2 min read
#Critical_Infrastructure: The story of who blew up the 3 of four lines of NS1 and 2 is taking an unexpected turn. US intelligence has admitted that allegedly pro-Ukrainian proxy forces were involved in the sabotage of the $12 billion worth of gas pipeline from⤵️
Russia to Germany. The US is not willing to reveal any more information, but this disclosure will definitely be used by Russia to accuse the EU and other Western countries of blaming Russia for self-harming actions against strategic energy infrastructure.⤵️
Chinese state media representatives insisted that the US knows who attacked the pipeline. Russia was thinking of repairing the pipeline for at least $500 million, but would do so when Germany had phased out any kind of energy import from Russia. It is imperative to articulate⤵️
am objective narrative about the NS1-2 explosion and obviously tell the truth, otherwise Russian propaganda will fill this void. If someone did it supporting the Ukrainian cause against Russian military aggression, then it should be detailed and explained. Clearing the⤵️
information space of Russian conspiracies is one of many ways to support Ukraine. This should not mean that Ukraine is to be blamed. It has no capacity to carry out such operations in Baltic waters. Ukraine is the victim of a Russian war.⤵️
In any case, Russian threats against critical infrastructures in EU countries and their maritime zones must be seriously addressed (undersea electricity and data cables, offshore wind farms and even gas pipelines, etc.).

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More from @DionisCenusa

Mar 7
#Georgia: The EU has published a tougher reaction to the worrying events in Tbilisi. The highlights: 1) Brussels is against the law in the current version, not against such a law in general. The govt knew that this draft would be disapproved by the Venice Commission;⤵️ Image
2) The EU is pointing out the socio-economic aspect of the problem. Many families in Tbilisi and in the regions are involved in NGOs receiving external funding which could lead to job loss. Somehow, as in other countries in the region,⤵️
the activity of civil society organizations implementing projects with Western financing helped to form some elements of the middle class; 3) The EU emphasizes that the loss is “incompatible” with EU values and standards and goes against the objective of joining the EU.⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Mar 7
#Georgia: Let's clarify a couple of things for whoever discovers Georgia today: 1) the regime in this country is not pro-Russian or controlled by Russia, but applies power techniques common to Russia, Azerbaijan, etc. to increase the power and eliminates the critics⤵️
before the upcoming elections; 2) The protests are legitimate and those on the streets want the govt to match its official pro-EU policy (often distorted with anti-EU political statements) to with their actions (that have been increasingly illiberal lately). That means that⤵️
no legislation that restricts democratic freedoms should be on the table of decision makers; 3) The Georgian protest will only grow if the govt does not withdraw the first reading voted draft by now. There is a possibility that the govt will try to learn a lesson from this⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Mar 7
#Georgia: The preservation of power and the elimination of "internal enemies" is above other govts priorities: 1) GD wants free-minded Georgians to self-exile or be silenced; 2) Since the West is very focused on Ukraine, the ruling party is taking advantage of⤵️
this moment to prepare a convenient political climate for the 2024 elections; 3) the radicalization of the ruling party is a dangerous path towards anti-liberalism; 4) The example offered by Hungary within the EU is now affecting the countries of the enlargement package.⤵️
The “Orbanization” of Georgia has been on the radar, but both the EU & the US turned a blind eye to it. Now Georgians are paying the price for internal complacency, as well as a conviction that others (EU, US, etc.) will prevent Georgia from reversing the democratization process.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 7
#China: The new MFA Qin Gang has launched a series of criticisms of US policy. Here are some takeaways: 1) Beijing hints that the US would carry out an “encirclement” of China in Southeast Asia (sounds familiar with the Russian “NATO encirclement” narrative);⤵️
2) The Chinese side warns against exporting what it calls a “Ukraine-style” crisis to Taiwan; 3) China is accusing the US of double standards in interpreting sovereignty and territorial integrity when it comes to Ukraine and the “one China policy”; 4) Qin Gang opposed ⤵️
the use of sanctions against Russia and reiterated that there is "strategic trust" between Moscow and Beijing; 5) China would pursue a non-zero sum game & interprets US policy as an attempt to “contain and suppress” China. These points are indicative of what is to come & that ⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Mar 6
#Moldova: A second source of anti-govt protests is springing up in the country, along with those exploiting high energy bills. Socialists and Communists lead the protests against the change of the “Moldovan” language to Romanian in the constitution:⤵️
1) The two parties jointly accuse the ruling party of changing the unconstitutional name of the state language and ask the law enforcement agencies to react against it; 2) In addition to the question of identity raised by these two pro-Moldovenist forces, they argue⤵️
that PAS-Sandu is modifying the constitution in violation of legal procedures. They calls out the EU to give an objective assessment of the actions of the govt that would be unconstitutional, whether this is expected from a candidate state;⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Mar 6
#Ukraine: As it presses ahead with preparations for a new counteroffensive against Russian forces on the occupied territories, Ukraine is also slowly starting the biggest post-World War II reconstruction effort. ⤵️
The country will need more than $1 trillion to repair or build from scratch. This includes 149,300 residential buildings, social infrastructure, and critical infrastructure (roads, water pipes, energy objects, etc.). Residential sector is among the priorities to bring back ⤵️
the Ukrainian refugees, if security guarantees are offered.
Kyiv wants to involve IOs as it has limited capacities for reconstruction on such a scale. With the consequences of the earthquakes in Turkey, there will be a high demand for construction services in the coming years.
Read 4 tweets

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