🚨 Later today, @USCBO Director Phillip Swagel will brief members of the House of Representatives on the Budget and Economic Outlook released last month – an encouraging step shining light on our fiscal challenges.
"Today’s budget briefing for Members of Congress is an encouraging step toward educating lawmakers with a shared set of facts on our fiscal outlook." crfb.org/press-releases…
"This comes at a critical time, and we have supported similar opportunities to increase transparency of our nation’s fiscal health in the past.
Lawmakers should not only attend, but also prioritize this moment for future budget seasons."
"There has been a startling lack of seriousness when it comes to budgeting in this country. Case in point: last year neither the House nor Senate Budget Committee – tasked with government’s most basic function – approved, debated, or even 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘦𝘥 a budget."
"This is particularly disheartening at a time when debt as a share of the economy is projected to reach an all-time record in just five years.
Having the opportunity to hear directly from an expert, nonpartisan source like CBO gives Members a reprieve from the echo chambers..."
"...they all too often find themselves in.
And, most importantly, it offers a chance to create honest and productive conversation surrounding #inflation, the #nationaldebt, and the solvency of our trust funds."
We published our full analysis of President Biden's budget proposal, breaking down the policy proposals and their impacts on debt, deficits, spending and revenue over the coming decade: crfb.org/papers/analysi….
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➡️The budget proposes an estimated $𝟯 𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 through 2033 and projects 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄 from 98% of GDP at the end of this year to 110% by the end of 2033, compared to 117% of GDP under its baseline.
1️⃣𝗗𝗲𝗯𝘁 + 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝘁𝘀 Under the President's Budget:
Nominal debt would ⬆️ by $19 trillion, from $24.6 trillion today to $43.6 trillion by the end of 2033.
Budget deficits would ⬆️ in nominal dollars and remain high as a share of GDP, but $3 trillion under OMB baseline.
➡️Our team is working through the President's FY 2024 budget released a short while ago, and we will publish our full analysis of the spending and revenue plan later today.
In the meantime, we've published a top-line overview of the key findings.
Under the President's budget, debt would rise at a slower rate than currently projected but still reach a new record share of the economy by 2027.
Debt will ⬆️ from 98% of GDP to a record 110% at the end of 20333 – compared to 117% under OMB's baseline.
2️⃣Meanwhile, deficits will remain below their historic COVID-highs, but grow in the short- and long-terms.
Deficits will rise from $1.6 trillion in 2023 to $1.8 trillion in 2024, hitting a low of $1.5 trillion in 2027, and rise again to $2.0 trillion by 2033.
"We strongly support the Administration’s efforts to strengthen the Medicare trust fund. The HI trust fund is only 5 years from insolvency, and we are pleased that the President has put forward a plan to extend the life of this vital program." crfb.org/press-releases….
"Anyone who opposes the measures he suggests to lower prescription drug costs and raise new revenue should put forward their own ideas to address Medicare’s rising costs and looming insolvency."
🚨NEW: With the latest $20 billion extension of the student loan repayment pause, the total cost of the pause through the end of this year will amount to $𝟭𝟱𝟱 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻.
1️⃣ The repayment pause is highly regressive, benefitting high-degree, high-income borrowers.
A typical recent medical school graduate will effectively receive nearly $68,000 of forgiven debt through December. A recent bachelor’s degree recipient will get $6,500 of forgiven debt.
2️⃣ This is because borrowers in higher-paid professions tend to borrow more. They also earn a lot more; eight of the ten highest-paid occupations in America are types of medical doctors and the other two are types of dentists.
🚨Two days after announcing it would cancel large amounts of student debt, the @WhiteHouse has failed to produce either a cost estimate or a proposal for how it would be paid for. We've estimated the cost of the full plan to be ~$500 billion.
"This certainly could be one of the most expensive executive actions in history, and yet the White House can’t tell us what it will cost. Either the White House doesn’t know the cost of their debt cancellation proposal, or they know and won’t share it with the public..."
"...it is hard to say which is worse.
While the Administration says it can’t fully estimate the cost, it has no problem estimating how many borrowers would benefit, who they are, or how the plan will affect inflation. Even as it can’t tell us what the plan costs,..."