1. Putin acts like a mob boss using violence to obtain compliance. I think he attacked today because he knows his forces are vulnerable around #Bakhmut. For days I've seen the battlefield being shaped in #Ukraine's favor. And this is pretty much what I thought could happen.
2. That's a notional scenario of how most of #Wagner forces are way over extended and could be encircled. This was done by source I've found consistently accurate in both battle status and predictions. This is what I've been pondering. 
3. This is a map I rely on for accurate force deployments. The balance of forces in Bakhmut strongly weighs in Ukraine's favor. It's muddy season. But those red lines I drew are paved roads that a combined arms operation of main battle tanks, Bradleys and infantry,
4. could exploit to put the Russian force in a rout or risk capture. #Prigozhin warned of it. I think #Putin may have attacked last night because he and #Gerasimov fear this may be coming.
5. In Syria we saw what US training could do with a motivated, disciplined & well-supplied force. Ukraine is about to emerge from winter trench warfare with troops rotated and trained. They'll have new weapons but also new battle doctrine to go
6. with them: Combined arms operations. Using massive main battle tanks with Bradleys and infantry to overwhelm a less capably-armed and trained force. Stay tuned.
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